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Steve replied >>They should definitely have listened to your expert advice and held on instead, while the (xtr)share price fell 60% in a year.>XTR is in a mess because of XTR - it has nothing to do with any posts I made a year ago, despite people trying to assign blame to me for everything that happened over the last year.
Steve replied >>They should definitely have listened to your expert advice and held on instead, while the (xtr)share price fell 60% in a year.>XTR is in a mess because of XTR - it has nothing to do with any posts I made a year ago, despite people trying to assign blame to me for everything that happened over the last year.
Steve replied >>They should definitely have listened to your expert advice and held on instead, while the (xtr)share price fell 60% in a year.
I see phoenix copper have suffered a similar fall in that same period.
Wonder how that’s working out for him?
Also >>>XTR is in a mess because of XTR - it has nothing to do with any posts I made a year ago, despite people trying to assign blame to me for everything that happened over the last year.
First part is subjective, but I fully agree with the second part, anything Steve had previously posted had no real baring the drop.
Every junior in my watchlist has suffered the same fate including jubilee with sound revenue that have seen a 50% reduction in share price over same period. The preceding year makes for even grimmer reading across the whole resource sector.
The CB factor that is often spouted as a cause of the drop and is suppressing would appear to be infectious and have a far reaching effect beyond just xtr 😉
How much blame are shareholders seriously putting on the boss?
Yay
Something to do with these pict things I use >>
At the moment I blame CB 80%.
That equates to SP drop from high to todays low.
Towards balance, and supporting Howezap's thinking below, I note that the AIM all share index - which I see as my p/f benchmark - has been going down for 26 months now to the tune of overall 50 ish % down.. and while I hugely hope the Index fall is nearly done, sadly and even more soul destroyingly again it may easily not be. This illustrates how bad things are across AIM generally.
(Towards context, by comparison, the 2008/2009 'great crash', saw a ultra brutal 66 % per cent ish fall in the AIM all share Index.. but it turned meaningfully back up after 20 months falling)
Also, howezap has below given our sector specific company comparisons too, to show that this sector is indeed an equivalent car crash to the overall index too.
All afore said, CB has undermined his own credibility very badly ALL through the Bushranger episode imho.. so he is a big part of the problem too here, I have little doubt. On top of this he called forward copper price extremely badly in 2023 and 2022 to an extent and 2024 perhaps/likely too. And his timelines on just about everything have been MUCH too bullish as a rule for the many years I've been involved in holding this stock, so his credibility was pretty low ahead of Bushranger too, alas. But at least he has been very consistent for a long time now, in fairness!
I think its obvious that the fall has been down to 2 factors : CB's BS becoming apparent and the general fall in commodity stocks. Its a matter of opinion what the split is e 80/20 50/50 or 20/80. I guess no one will ever know for sure.
I think we have been very unlucky that at the same time CB's BS was becoming apparent, we also had major head winds for the commodity sector. A "double whammy"
As ever, any SP move is exaggerated (up or down) by fear or greed and the sp goes up too much in good times or falls down too much in the bad times.
I remain confident that the fundamentals here will take the sp to a much higher level and that this should be boosted by the sector heads winds reducing over the next 12 to 18 months (ie interest rates reducing)
But it has been a bit of bruising and stressful 12 months !
I agree that the fundamentals here are very strong now.. and this s/p is currently joke low versus these fundamentals.
Interesting that AIM followed Fibonacci retracements. Will be interesting if 50% holds this time.
Andrew >> Its a matter of opinion what the split is e 80/20 50/50 or 20/80. I guess no one will ever know for sure.
In fairness to Steve4077 in his time here over a year ago and prior. He reported his ‘unchallenged’ analysis continually of L2 data from key moments, which supported the fact that there were no major sell offs causing the drops but was a result of external market forces with MM’s driving the prices down across the whole sector on relatively ‘low volumes’.
Over the past year there have been many occasions that ‘others’ had offered their own L2 analysis on why there had been a share price drop that day and supporting the very same fact that there have been ‘no’ major sell offs and reporting the same conclusions as steve had.
So if aggrieved shareholders are largely holding the proportion of the blame with the boss, then there must be either,
A/ no correlation between resulting low sentiment against what actual selling there has shown to be in light of the past L2 analysis.
Or B/ the previous L2 analysis would suggest the split is more in line with 20/80 in favour of external forces.
Or C/ ?
C: It's like a cigar Zak, I'd tell 'em to stuff 10p, it's looking like we definitely sitting on 2m tonnes etc, no death of a thousand lashes, tie a bow around it etc, etc, etc, etc....
I think it is generally looked upon from 3 different perspectives of the various investor types here.
There are pre bushranger holders that have experienced past failings for whatever reason, with maybe many carrying those experiences and are now very sceptical of CB to return value.
The BR investors that were drawn in from the saturated PR and with it the hype and FOMO. So feel let down that the board has failed to deliver quicker.
There are also no doubt other newer investors that have a longer term outlook that have evaluated, with many crossovers from the first two, maybe now have re-evaluatited the company position going forward and can see past those failings before or are less affected emotionally and financially to cloud their judgement in what is a ruthless ultra high risk sector.
Don’t believe there is an investor type category for legends Jezzoo
It doesn't matter what investor type you are, you've/we've all been led up the garden path equally by 'ole Birdy.
I'm reasonably sure he will bullsh it up another spike sooner or later and give many a chance to get out.
I've learnt by bitter experience that the way to make money with CB companies is to buy a stake, wait for a spike SELL !! wait for next spike SELL !! Because holding a CB share for growth is a mugs game.
Somebody's keen though with a £7k buy today,CB himself ?
HZ
My "last 12 months" comment was not a reference to Steve but when the 1.3mt was announced- which was not what we were led to believe would be the case. We then had the start of a slow unwind of expectations as reality started to become apparent over next few months. Reality being a mixture of head wins for commodity sector and CB's statements not being accurate.
We didnt get a quick big sell off, but volume dried up due to the above factors and no doubt Mms took it down to generate volume - which didnt happen, so down again to try and get more volume
Its more nuanced than what one person said or one factor but a combination of factors. One significant factor though was down to Cb's "inaccurate forward guidance".
And Yes, I'm being kind and tactful using that phrase :)
Jezz
One off £5K to £7K buy is happening quite often.
I think someone is loading up? Or at least some see this price as a bargain?
Earlier in the week, a £7k and a £5k buys were mine.
Having earlier sold the lot at a higher price the gold numbers seemed to put a floor under the sp.
I still believe Bird is a drag on the share price and I wouldn't believe a word he says,but fortunately he is not running the show at Fairbride.
Any decent share price gain and I'd be off like a shot.
>>My "last 12 months" comment was not a reference….
Wasn’t in response to that particular comment, sorry may have looked that way.
Your last post is a fair summary Andrew 👍
Hey Zap
Here is my penny's worth.
If it wasn't for deal done with MMP for Fairbride then XTR would have been uninvestible or a binary BET .
A binary BET for me is a stock where you win alot or lose everything.
Until I listened to Rick Rule who is a successful investor in resource stocks I had no idea that ONLY 12.5% of resource stocks actually make it ??? YIkes!!!
As for dear C🎯l prediction on surge in copper price which is inevitable at some point perhaps it's not happened yet cos of strong dollar???
Just heard from analysts that they are forecasting a 15% decline in dollar value from now til year end - In my eyes that is MASSIVE. If that happens then commodity prices will start to sore. So wishful thinking on my part then BR deal ( icing on XTR cake) will come into play
For those curious binary BET for me are:
Low MCAP
Zero revenue
Low cash
DYOR
yours cruelly
BTTS = Any decent share price gain and I'd be off like a shot.
Seems there is one other investor type I had overlooked. The ones that use the Hokey Cokey strategy……. In and out. 😉
🥳 you are back in !
All the best I’m sure whatever decision you make will be the right one for you 👍
Dani >>Can someone explain why Colin stated in 6 Apr podcast of AISC 700$ AN ounce to XTR for Q1 yet in report it says 1185 an ounce - that's one helova difference
Tbf Colin never actually stated in the podcast that 700$ was AISC, in his own inevitable way, he may have simply been referring to just the production costs.???
Anyone know how the SPV for exploration is funded? From xtr’s net profit share direct or would it be paid back into SPV from company operating cash flow?
The exploratory drilling not grade control drilling which is part of the mining process.
That's Funny! Defending Colin without actually knowing the facts!
Nice RNS for BZT. Looks good but I don't know much about the project. Anyone here invested there?