Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
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Anyone still thinking it'll be >20p buy out?
At 3.2p the mkt cap is 27.4m so that's 8.5m a penny
Sooo,
£100m is 11.75p
£200m is 23.50p
£300m is 35.25p
etc, etc, plus the African assets
No
Why do you think that LittleWing?
Actually, yes, some of us do still think 20+p is likely.
warrants at 8 and 10p, I think it basically 1000m to 1 above so £200m = 20p
Correct Double
1Billion fully diluted
Buyout price, and timing of models, etc., is going to be strongly affected by the price of copper. If that starts moving back up in the short term, I suspect the process will accelerate. Otherwise, patience needed.
If copper goes back to earlier highs then 20p would be disappointing. If it hangs around this level for a while, then probably happy with 20p.
i wonder who sold the 1 share
I think these very small share deals are coded messages between MM.
What do you think that 1 meant specifically then Cygnus ?
Dead as a doornail in xtr again today .. so see you in The Lamb Tavern Leadenhall for a long lunch and have a Bucking Bottle of The Chocolate Block open and breathing when I get there, Geez .. would be my guess
>>>Dont forget we will have a tax bill from the Australian government.
Not necessarily, this was posted by Thediddymen over the other side last year if it is of help or credibility. The poster is well respected. Suggest there will be no Aus equivalent to CGT.
>>>On the issue of the sale of Racecourse, Racecourse is owned by Projectore, a subsidiary of Xtract Resources. Unless I am missing something the way to return the cash to shareholders would be by issue of Prospectore shares in specie to existing shareholders of Xtract. The acquirer then purchases the shares from Xtract shareholders. In effect shareholders will see the net transaction which is a cheque/divi payment
That means that theree was no disposal of Racecourse, which means no CGT or Australian equivalent. While in the UK the transaction will be treated as a capital rather than income item, or in other words it will be treated as a capital gain. Shareholders will still retain their shares in Xtract which means that there will need to be a capital apportionment of cost to determine the capital gain if the shares are held outside an ISA.
NicetoMichu
Don't understand your post mate. Sure you're replying to the right poster ?
On reflection, I don't understand me either on that post to you, Cygnus .. disregard it (and at least half my other posts here)
SteveFrappe... I feel the chance of moving on the resource for around 20p has come and gone. The original declared "quick sale with a bow on it" and the interviews created a sense of possibility. However having been a shareholder for way too long here my gut feeling now is that the chance of doing so (along with other XTR opportunity nugget misfires) has gone. There has also been a change in tone from what seemed like nailed on confidence in the resource from Colin to something less inspiring.
I would be surprised if the spike price in the SP of around 9p is achieved tbh. Hope I'm wrong and am still a large holder here but my experience to date of Colin's XTR is now one of much reduced expectations. The lack of enthusiasm by Colin to keep telling everyone how big it is these days doesn't bode well imho. We will see but I'm not holding my breath.
"There has also been a change in tone from what seemed like nailed on confidence in the resource from Colin to something less inspiring"
Agreed. But is that because CB doesnt feel the need to ramp-up the sp now as he knows now exactly what we have or because he is trying to manage expectations as he knows its nothing like what he has implied man times?
I guess you could interpret his change in tone either way?
Fair points Andrew was thinking similar. I felt the, “do we keep drilling to get to 2mt” comment was very out of the norm for Colin. Almost down playing to keep expectations at a ‘sensible’ level. That would certainly help investor sentiment to cushion a disappointing outcome, but also prime the market to look more favourably upon impending news that wasn’t so disappointing at all.
Was it really just an off the cuff comment it came across as?
It doesn’t take anything away from the good news overall though that a resource statement is being completed which confirms there will definitely be no more drilling carried out. At least, before approaching AA.
Looking at how the strategy has perceived to have shifted away from the very early project objective of a drilling estimate of between 16-22k metres to prove up the 2mtCuEq to see if AA wanted back in, to a ‘hopeful’ 2mt estimate from RC with 3-5 holes stuck into Ascot to say to AA, “there you go gentlemen, there’s your other porphyry.” To eventually conclude the programme with in excess of 30k metres drilled, a shortfall at RC granted, but with numerous other anomalous targets, some confirmed with drilling, the deep gold system that shoots to near surface, the geophys target to the east that returned the highest gold intersect of 15.50g/t Au, footrot, including 2 further new targets identified and the possibility that RC continues to the NE. I think above all, far better geological knowledge of the relationship between RC and Ascot and what is now shown, to be this multi mineralised multi porphyry system similar in characteristics to Cadia.
Does that sound like they were just chasing grades to make up any shortfall? Or we have missed the boat for 20p a share with a quick sale. I hope we have missed a quick sale for 20p a share!
On the contrary, they could have just gone straight to conceptual study after RC and the decision to mine with a few holes into Ascot to say, “there you go gents……….” Alternatively they could have just chased the higher grades at Ascot to get to the original target.
Has there been a change of strategy? I don’t think so where exploration is concerned. But certainly from one that was reported to us. It has definitely exceeded expectations, I am certain It has always been, to achieve the maximum project value from the available funds in the treasury. I have no doubts they have achieved that!
Howezap you are a complete dreamer. CB still believes there is 2MT in the license, but imho Xtract will never get close to doing that and to me it doesn’t even feel as though a phase 3 would be enough to get us there. My guess is around 1MT but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was less than that. We also know that you can’t combine the resource of Racecourse and Ascot to get a single mine.
Johnswan1 - Just lowering the cut off at Racecourse and using the existing JORC, takes us to approx 0.5mt. We’ve had drill results confirming large extensions in all directions since and I personally don’t get why you think we’ll be lucky to get 1mt… it literally doesn’t add up.
And why does it matter if there are separate mines at Ascot and Racecourse? They can still use the same processing plant and they’d be literally right next door to each other. Both discoveries are within the same licence that the buy back clause relates to (so is Footrot) and it all counts towards the 2mt trigger point.
I’m with Andrew… if we didn’t have enough to make a sale at a decent price, we’d be doing a phase 3 to get it. Also worth noting that the guys on the ground in Oz know and socialise with the AA guys and will definitely be having informal discussions. I think they will have a good idea what AA think too.
There is every reason to be confident despite the frustration of the many missed deadlines.
Certainly not a dreamer JS. My evaluation is from past RNS’s first and foremost, interview comments and plain common sense. You must think the management team are clueless.
Why are you still going on about 2mt! It’s unimportant now with the decision to mine. You are delusional if you honestly think that even after a third phase, which isn’t happening btw, 2mt will still not be met. I believe you just imagine it in your head so it must be true. Do some basic research at least.
Highly unlikely AA will be interested, Bird said it himself. Steve, how much was the license worth with the original resource? Look what we paid for it. Reducing the cut off to add to the resource will not add value to the project. IMO we *may* have doubled the resource from what it started at, but I’m not convinced that will make it valuable enough to make it worthwhile, certainly not good enough for my money to have been tied up here and at a 5p-ish average.
To add, yes there have been some extensions, but at extremely low grades relative to the initial discovery.
Not sure why you believe the grades are extremely low, many are in line with the average of around .26Cu mined at Cadia. Typical porphyry grades for the Lachlan belt. The original 71mt was made up of mainly the higher grade part of the resource. The numerous infill drills will have added to the 71mt before any of the extensions. It was highly unlikely that the extensions to the outer margins of RC would return grades as high anyway. So it is ‘not’ just the drilling outside the initial 71mt that increases the resource. So I’m sure we have certainly way more than doubled the Copper content as you say , whereas the resource is estimated to be 500mt, dependant on the cut off used. Let’s just wait and see the updated conceptual study. This will be more relevant now than the updated and initial resource estimates. Unless of course you are looking for an earlier exit?