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>> LTHs have seen this type of drop before without any external reasons - and we know why it happened.
Yes, but last time it happened was there the same level of massive economic disruption? Was copper down 30%, was the whole index down 30%, were all the other small-cap miners crashing? Was there inflation, high energy prices, etc.?
Yes, you can't be *100%* certain that the world situation is responsible, but the alterative explanation seems considerably less likely. What you are saying in effect is that while the world economy is crashing down all around us and everyone else is suffering huge share price falls, we would have been fine if only CB had better communication skills.
"Do you really believe that all of the above is NOT having a massive impact on XTR?"
I think you have missed my point.
I'm not saying that isnt the reason for the drop, it may well be in some part, or large part or even the whole reason, but there seems complete dismissal that there is no other reason for the drop.
LTHs have seen this type of drop before without any external reasons - and we know why it happened.
I honestly cant say with 100% certainty why the drop has happened, and I don't think anyone else can.
You should charge for that Life advice Steve4077... although wrt poker I take my own counsel.... after the night I pulled the top hand early in a game (true story)..... unable to contain my excitement and keep the smile off my face I tried to hide it by taking a drink from my beer..... which I then snorted down my nose....... uncontrollably.... everyone on the table looked at me and folded......
Poker isn't the game for me ...lol
>> Steve... do you know what the current strategy is ?
Yes, I think I have a fairly reasonable idea based on the information on the many RNS and the recent annual report. I don't think it is spelled out very clearly, as the comms are not great, but its not too difficult to make inferences. Check my posting history. What is happening now seems to be fairly in line with what I predicted would happen based on the information available. Have patience, delay the deal, do some more drilling using the income from Manica, prove up more resource, wait for market conditions to improve, get a good deal. If I am wrong, we should find out at the AGM.
What do you think the strategy should be?
In regards to BR then I 100% agree.
My issue was when he was writing in his statements at TIR that good projects were hard to find due to the competition, money hard to raise (BZT - thanks Prickly for your informative posts on there) that he was saying at XTR how he was looking for further projects. A lot of money will be required at Manica and BR to further them along and I would prefer focus to remain at the current time on those projects. The last thing we need is for operational difficulties to occur at Fairbride then a placing to be required because shock/horror things didn't turn out as planned.
BTW I am not debating that CB has mismanaged expectations - I think it is fair to say he has. However, you have to be careful of the classic trap of correlation rather than causation. Just because Event B happens after Event A, it doesn't mean that Event B is caused by Event A.
For example, there is a strong correlation between ice cream sales and swimming pool deaths (seriously) but it doesn't mean that eating ice cream makes you more likely to drown. It's because hot weather is the cause of both.
In this case, it seems a lot more likely that world events is the cause of a general fall in small cap equities and has significantly disrupted XTR plans. I agree that we need a lot more information on how the latter has changed and we have the ideal opportunity in less than three weeks.
Steve... do you know what the current strategy is ?
I think the evidence that world events is playing a significant part is pretty overwhelming. Just look at other small-cap mining stocks. Many of them are down similar amounts during the same period. The entire stock market in which XTR is traded is down 30%. The Copper price is down 30%. The world is in recession. Energy prices are sky high. A major war in Europe. Highest inflation in the West since the 1980s
Do you really believe that all of the above is NOT having a massive impact on XTR? Or that CB should NOT adjust his strategy in light of those events?
I can understand that many may think that world events are responsible for the down turn here – and they may well might, be but many LTH have had similar experiences here before and that was due to results not matching CB’s overly optimistic narrative. Maybe some think the same thing COULD be about to happen again so have sold?
It’s interesting that many who have repeatedly acknowledged CBs ability to be overly optimistic, then ignore their own view and decide that the reason for the drop is not down to that which they have already acknowledged, but another reason/s outside CB’s control.
To be clear - I’m not saying the drop is not down to external forces outside CB’s control – it may well be, but the alternative view - that it could be down to CB’s own mismanagement of expectations, (something which we all know he’s done before), is a view that seems to be dismissed by many.
Even by those that have repeatedly acknowledged that he does this.
To avoid misunderstanding, I’m 85% certain that things will turn out OK here. That appears to be much more pessimistic then some who have had less knowledge of CB’s history - or those that choose to ignore it :)
It is imho perfectly acceptable for Colin to be playing the cards close to his chest when it was implied that a deal was close as Colin himself stated that he couldn't negotiate via the front pages. Now that the game has substantially changed does that still hold ? I don't think it should. Following Phase 1 and Phase 2, what do we have at racecourse ? Will shareholders be fully informed with a meaningful model that they can decide if it still aligns with their investment aim ? I agree we shouldn't waste energy on trying to control things we cannot change.... but extend us the courtesy of giving us the information so we can decide. The world has changed. The game plan seems to have changed. The market will assume the worse if cards are played close to the chest when the circumstances don't seem to warrant that.
Great post Steve. I agree with what you say but it unfortunately doesn’t stop the nerves when you’ve all in and waiting on the turn card that should have been dealt months ago! The slow dealer is bound to get a little stick!
I know people are getting angry, frustrated or worried, due to the share price or bad comms/ expectation management or world events that impact market conditions and XTR's room for manoeuvre.
I'm comfortable with my investment despite that. As Andy said, there is no issue with the quality of assets. Obviously I wish I had bought lower, but I made decisions based on what I knew at the time. I also wish I had money available now to take advantage of the share price, but I can't control that either.
Perhaps I could offer some extremely hard-earned advice from my professional poker-playing days. The only thing to focus on is making good decisions. Forget about outcomes, because they are outside your control. It sounds simple but it takes a long time to really get into that mindset. In poker, you can't control the cards, so there is no point getting upset if you lose. Your decision was correct - you were just unlucky.
I've lost a £5000 pot as an 800-1 favourite when the money went in. I've lost a £3000 pot when my opponent misread his hand, called by mistake and then got the perfect two cards he needed to win. I've taken multiple terrible beats in succession and lost £10k on the night, despite being ahead every time the money went in. I have been unlucky thousands of times, but I still finished ahead in the long term. Sometimes I was lucky too, but mainly its because if you keep making good decisions, then the money usually ends up with you.
I learned from experience to congratulate my opponent and move to the next hand. If I got upset (what poker players call 'going on tilt') about things I couldn't control, then I made decisions based on emotion rather than logic, which made the situation worse. I would cause tension at the table, which is bad for me because happy casual players stay longer and play more carelessly. If the table gets fractious, they leave. In summary, getting upset about being unlucky or looking back with 20/20 hindsight, or taking my frustrations out on others were not only a waste of energy, but actively damaged my chances of winning in the future.
This experience has helped a huge amount with investing. I am happy with my purchase decisions based on the information I had at the time. I didn't know there would be a major European war, or that China would go back into lockdown, or there would be a huge spike in energy prices, or global inflation, etc. so there is zero benefit to regetting choices I made before any of that happened. I didn't forsee the stock dropping 50% from the recent highs on low volumes, but then so have many other mining stocks. AIM as a whole is down over 30% in the same period. There is nothing I can about that except make good decisions based on the situation right now. Worrying about the past or ranting about the present is pointless. It doesn't help me.
I'll finish with a favourite quote from Macbeth.
"Things without all remedy should be without regard: what's done, is done"
Thanks NtM and Prickly
Hope to see you, and others, at AGM.
To be honest I only invested in miners and AIM just over 2 years ago - it's aged me!
Learnt a hell of a lot from so many on this board and still feel I've an awful lot to learn not just geology and mining but game theory, pyschology, timing investment entry and exit and how to manage illiquid investments.
We've sunk c£8m on BR and we've been told "it isn't a 10p porphyry aka £100m"
Most of my research is trying to assess the validity of this 10p statement. The opportunity and immediacy of Manica income was a surprise due to my inadequate research.
I've reasonable confidence that this "not a 10p porphyry" is probable and whilst this gives me a level of reassurance I'm still rather uncomfortable given current SP versus my average versus my exposure. This would be an unbelievable entry point a year ago and so much has been proven in this time and yet the SP is down c40- 50% versus the day after the announcement of Ascot discovery. I know because I topped up then :(
My biggest gripe is comms and expectation management and definitely not the quality of assets or the team on the ground.
Cheers
Butlerman, I think your nerves will be just fine, it’s not a cup competition, Colin did say it was in the premier league :-)
Just so long as this game doesn’t go to extra time and then is decided by penalties! I don’t think my nerves could stand it.
Thanks Steve. Interesting observation.
In our case the Penalty is Bushranger development. That is a near cert given the issues elsewhere. But the resource size, price and timeline needs to go to VAR.
Really good point you make Steve about prompting AA to engage. I’ve plucked some other comments from the same end of phase 2 RNS.
-A Phase Three drilling programme is under consideration, with aims to;……
-The process has been exhaustive, producing a very firm platform for project evaluation and on-going decision making.
-I look forward to a complete formal summarisation of all the information generated by Phase Two and informing the market of our on-going strategy."
Will admit it certainly doesn’t read as being decisive that a 3rd phase will be actually be undertaken, is more than likely probable. With that, you do make a fair point with the potential reasons to do so that you have previously given.
I still think overall I prefer that the further, exploration/ infill and definition phase was decided purely, as being the result of superior geophys and resource potential to have a significant effect on the financial model though. Maybe that’s my naivety and lack of business experience.
( I build stuff! )
Colin is like the equivalent of proper football before VAR when you could debate a contentious decision in the pub after the game. These days it’s, “ it was definitely a penalty!!”
“Oh Yeah….it was.” Great!
Thanks for reply.
Overall 2nd qtr 23, is around about what I was thinking.
So hope that at AGM CB, gives clarity on a few things.
I do feel that if Colin Bird were asked why the strategy for Bushranger seems to have changed so much he would have some justification for repeating the famous phrase: “Events, dear boy, events”.
Firstly, its possible that AA could simply make an offer at any time, without XTR triggering it. There would be no pre-agreed process in that case, such as Valmin, and the parties would work out something suitable between them, with either able to walk away.
If there is a phase 3 drilling program (note the phrasing "the company intend to plan a Phase Three drilling programme" - not "the company will undertake a Phase Three drilling programme"), then I imagine that will require several months and I couldn't see a sale happening until Q1/Q2 2023, by which time the economic situation and the copper price may have recovered, plus we should have steady income from Manica.
Given the wording, I suppose its possible that talking of 'phase 3' is a device to put pressure on AA to make an early offer outside of the buyback terms, because Colin may want to generate a deal without going through Valmin for some reason, but I think that is a lot less likely then an actual phase 3, because for reasons already stated many times, it makes a lot of sense to do more drilling at the moment.
On as far as the sale of BR on that the buy back clause, is activated & AA say yes.
Would be good on having views on an approx time when the above could happen?
Between March & June 23
July & Sept
or sooner or later then above?
10p not looking so daft now... if only. I do feel our chance has come and gone now (for the foreseeable future anyway).
I am not sure what the electronic version of "bottom drawer" is, but I feel like it will be the case for the foreseeable future. Looking for a multi mineralized system might be laudable or maybe CB just doesn't feel we would get the type of valuation that he wants in the current market (accepting long term pricing but I doubt no pricing would give say $5lb which he may want). Neither bad reasons for CB to hold back from selling BR but probably means topping up shares on weakness. Feels like JLP revisited from 15 years ago.
‘I believe’ the geophysics was too strong to ignore
In defence of Colin he has he has only ever said the target is to talk to AA. Previously was made clear that reaching the 2mt was very important to the company and to see what AA wanted to do.
That, is a big resource in itself, a huge milestone some 5 or 6 times increase of the main inferred resource. Now with very strong evidence that the area is multi mineralised with multiple porphyry, some below and some outlying, the intention is to prove they are there and mineralised. The company shouldn’t be expected to stick to a verbal target with ever changing resource potential and geological understanding since target for talks were set at the turn of the year.
I am not in any doubt talks would have been put back anyway without the geo political and economic downturn, as has been stated in reportRNS
>> In general, our exploration activities in Australia have been extremely encouraging and without a doubt we have discovered a major system, well beyond our original expectations.<<
I do think many will be appreciative in the end,I include myself, when a deal is done. Of the hand holding and ‘perceived’ underarm tactics along the way to keep us all interested and importantly, invested. But quite frankly I don’t believe he has done so, the geophysics was too strong to ignore, and once the high grade precious metals were found it changed the project potential considerably from there.