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Gixxer, yes he is blaming the market on all his companies but their prices were still well down before the current bear market.
I know he traditionally likes to spend the summer in Europe (like many Middle Eastern based people) so I imagine he is in some comfortable beach house somewhere. You should all have a look back at the messages from 2-3 years ago and see this current sideshuffle is not new with him.
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Stock Prices watered down by placings after placings and projects that go round in circles- meanwhile Colin Bird lives in the tax free luxury in UAE and indulges in expensive race horses.
Time he became CEO of BZT- SP 0.5….now 0.1
Time he became CEO of XTR- SP 10...now 3.65
Time he became CEO of Galileo 7.38...now 1
Thanks Phatbaz,
I thought there were still some 1.85p warrants left?
I don't think the share price has been above the exercise price since they were authorized, thier issue had to be voted on at last year's AGM.
The warrants will be exercisable in whole or in part at 8.5p per new Ordinary Share to be exercised within 2 years of being issued.
I was lucky and did sell some pretty much at the height of the spike at 8.5p. I had only bought in a couple of weeks previous and didn't have a huge holding.
Not wanting to turn the board negative but does anyone have a feel for who holds the warrants? I'm surprised we haven't seen any exercised and have taken that as a positive sign.
A4444.... nah, the RNS would be a cash raise ;-)
I hope the poster mentioned does well in his investments. However I do think he's wrong. Imo the jorc for RC will be next month.I think the jorc for ascot will be oct. There will then be a second jorc for ascot after the 3rd phase. For the economic model of RC it's totally dependent on what Colin wants to do..
Lucky, sorry I fully stand by what I said. If the sector that xtr is part of on the LSE has fallen 50% - it is perfectly average for xtr to fall 50%. Obviously there are other factors at play, but that must be the main one.Comparing xtr to a company that provides medical treatment s or IT software makes no sense, at least to me.
The sector has well and truly stabilised so it certainly looks like the bottom. If I any folks want to sell at the bottom in a low liquidity environment then that's up to them.
Good luck to anyone who tries to time the market in AIM. Bigger balls than me.
I didn’t sell any on the Jan 2021 spike or in the recent 7p+ rise. If I had been clever I could have traded this and made over £500K and ended up with same number of shares! Silly me.
I don’t buy any of the Tech analysis nonsense (not in small caps anyway) or “research will tell you when to sell” , its all random as no one knows when big news will drop.
One thing I can say with certainty, if I did sell a large % of my holding on the next spike, we would get an RNS a day later confirming sale to a major for $500M !!
MY approach? Hold and pray ??
Flipper, I was considering selling some of my xtr shares to buy into smoke and mirrors, I’ve heard a lot about them recently!
Steve
>>However, his plan to 'buy back in' might be tricky if wants a significant number of shares
Maybe that is exactly what has made his decision so much easier. He may simply have only relatively small capital to play with. Also the less you have to invest, the more likely you would be to chase the next quick profit. It’s just human nature.
It’s would be almost impossible to get it right for us who hold shares in the millions.
Might need to sell my XTR shares to buy Christmas decorations ......................
Funny old world we live in. As long as Manica keeps producing we should do fine and ride out the ups and downs.
>> To sell ‘all’ their shares is rather brave though, to be tied into something else and miss out on a getting back in, just to chase the next big thing. Brave, stupid or genius decision?
I post an L2 update at close most days on Telegram and a lot of the down days are low to minimal volume and quite a few actually have more buys than sells or roughly equal. Also, some of the up days are quite low volume too. Given the small volume and number of trades, the share price is obviously sensitive to relatively small trades due to low liquidity.
TCofMC seems like a good poster so I have no doubt he thought it through. However, his plan to 'buy back in' might be tricky if wants a significant number of shares. Once it starts to move on good news, it will probably move quickly and it won't take much volume to push it up. I've considered tactical selling and buying a few times and done it occasionally, but it would be hard to do it for large amounts without a lot of risk involved. I've decided to leave it alone and trust in the long-term benefit. Trying to time the market often ends badly. I think I would describe his strategy as brave but risky :)
BTW I note TCofMC didn't attack XTR - he just sold quietly and then announced it. That also accounts for some of the selling, along with Captain Bob (who has finished now) and Gixxer.
I agree with that howezap
Just clocked this part post by papillon over on the dark side,-
>> I read today that TCofMC has also sold all his XTR shares to concentrate on **** & ***
A little dig found his actual post on a different stock chat worth repeating here.
CofMC>>
No, sold out to take a bigger position here as well as at ***. I think the potential for exceptional sp returns here are significantly better than at XTR. I like XTR and intend to buy back in, but it seems to me like they have slowed down the delivery of the JORC in order to explore Ascot and the other areas more indepth. If it comes off then it will be worth it, but with the copper price being hammered combined with the above, I don't see the sp doing a grest deal until later this year. Also, if the world goes into a recession, how well is copper going to perform and how well will the copper stocks do? In China, Yiwu and Sanya have just gone into lockdowm. Yiwu accounts for 80% of the worlds Christmas decorations, hopefully Christmas won't be cancelled.
XTR have found something very interestimg, it needs more work which will take time. Since I am concerned to make money, not fall in love with a share, I have refocused elsewhere for the time being<<
It goes to show that even the most informed, knowledgeable and respected contributors (albeit on ADVFN) even have a threshold that they are not willing to exceed if that does not meet their own personal expectations.
To sell ‘all’ their shares is rather brave though, to be tied into something else and miss out on a getting back in, just to chase the next big thing.
Brave, stupid or genius decision?
Certainly a lesson we can all take on though, that you simply cannot allow sentiment to affect decision making where investment decisions are concerned.
Iceberg, telling me to keep facts relevant? My post was relevant, it shows that the world's problems have not affected others as much as xtract. So you can't blame that. You also can't blame the copper price. There are obviously many factors affecting the SP but in my opinion most of it stems from the companies doing.
Steve needs to learn he isn't always right and others can have their own opinions. And I think people should keep thier profile pictures relevant.
Some good healthy debate this weekend. I agree with Steve that we should as shareholders all be on the same team. Keeping everyone on the same page is down to the captain... no not you Bob :-). So lets wait and see if captain Colin has given us fair and reasonable forward guidance when the dust settles. Only then can we judge if some of the criticism has been fair and reasonable or if it has indeed been Colin bashing. On the comment about we all win and lose together... that is a lovely idea but which seems to fall by the wayside when cash raise time comes around and the created spike just prior to the cash raise benefits the chosen few who have an opportunity to forward sell. Perhaps they are the entitled beneficiaries ? Anyway I hope this isn't seen as entitled whinging. As someone who has done OK out of XTR, I can still see rights and wrongs.
Prickly made the comment that at their meeting with Colin, Colin stated that there was no point in releasing good news because it wouldn't make any difference. Whereas I feel he should release news and keep at least shareholders updated, if he feels he cannot affect the market then I don't see how a bb will. Minor short term ups and down but not the underlying trend. I honestly don't believe Goldman Sachs rely on this board to make their decisions.
Johnswan your reputation for negativity really is starting to precede you.
Just saying.
Why would you think a raise would be required to look for the next big thing?
They are looking for small deposits that are nearby processing plants that will churn about 50.000tpa over about 5years that will not need heavy front end capital. May be very good opportunities in current environment as many more of these small deposit owners will struggle to secure funds to get them to final production.
You must surely have some positive outlook for the company I would hope.
>> Some suggesting we can hold tight and wait until the market environment improves or Copper goes up, but for how long and at what cost. The reference to other projects suggests we may raise at some point to take on the next big thing, which then dilutes any upside at BR. We also know with small caps that most projects shifted out of focus don’t amount to anything
We've drilled 35,000m in 18 months and are planning a phase 3 - that doesn't really look like being 'shifted out of focus'
We also have income from Manica. About a month ago, we had an RNS stating no raise necessary for 12 months.
As for waiting - the real cost would be acting now with the mining sector down massively, rather a waiting a few months. What's the rush? We have income so we can be patient and we have money to drill and improve the resource.
John
Market environment has to have contributed in some way to the drop. I think its nonsense for anyone to claim that all the drop is down to just one thing ie World Events or all down to CB.
Its a combination of many things but no one knows, despite some claiming to, what the split is.
That IMHO of course !
Steve
The “labelled a basher” comment – was not directed at any individual but a general comment as I’ve seen that approach many times from a number of posters over the years.
The mischaracterisation comment was directed at you. In our discussion yesterday I clearly stated, many times, that the drop could have been mostly or even all down to world events. I just didn’t know what the split was - some said it was obviously all done to world events. You were mischaracterizing my view by claiming that I was saying that world events had very little or nothing to do with the drop.
I was actually making the same point Howzap has just made today.
“There has no doubt been any number of other factors that have contributed to the downturn in Xtract share price over last 6 months.”
But what split that took (90/10 50/50 10/90) I had no idea and now one does.
BTW your point “I am sure the response will be 'no one invests based on forums', but that simply isn't true. “
Of course they do. All the time, but my view would be that f they do then they get what they deserve. Honest posters are often wrong with their view!
Baffles me how people are attributing SP to market environment and impatient investors.
Yes CB has overpromised and also in an interview suggested we were already there or just about there with the 2MT, but assays this year have shown that areas of promise did not yield anything of note. I believe CBs comments were accounting for expected outcome of assays and upcoming holes. Yes Ascot is open (although most recent RNS suggests not in as many directions as hoped), but we expected RC was going to add a bit more yet the boundaries were found in all directions a little bit too quickly. Sure this is a milestone required to close it off and complete the model but I expect comments about 2MT were made assuming there would be more growth. An argument could be made that Ascot is actually worth less now than it was 6 months ago given results of recent holes. CB suggested initially that they would put a few holes in it and leave it open for the buyer, but given disappointment at RC and failure to improve materially on previous Ascot drills we’re now stuck having to prove beyond doubt that the combined resource is of commercial substance.
Some suggesting we can hold tight and wait until the market environment improves or Copper goes up, but for how long and at what cost. The reference to other projects suggests we may raise at some point to take on the next big thing, which then dilutes any upside at BR. We also know with small caps that most projects shifted out of focus don’t amount to anything.
>> With negative comments like that you may get labelled a basher
I think that was directed at me, so maybe check my posting history. I have posted many, many times about how comms could be better (and I intend to raise that at the AGM rather than rant about it) and how Colin is a serial optimist (that is just who he is and he won't change).
What winds me on here are what I might call the 'entitled whingers' (and that isn't you Andrew, so sorry you took a little crossfire). They have 'lost money', at least on on paper, and they can't accept it may just be bad luck (the economy) or their own decisions (no one forced them to buy), so we end up with cognitive dissonance - if it isn't bad luck or their own decisions, then that only leaves Colin to blame. Once they arrive at that conclusion, they then contrive any excuse to attack the perceived source of their problems.
Apologies for going back to poker, but that is like a fast-forward version of investing. You can tell the characters of the players by how they react to adversity or bad luck. Some accept it and don't let it affect them. Others blame the dealer, or the cards or the other players. Normally, I don't mind because emotional people who can't take responsibility make bad decisions and I make more money.
However, this isn't poker in one important regard. Its a team sport. As XTR shareholders, we all win or we all lose. So when people continually bash Colin unreasonably because they can't accept they might simply be unlucky or responsible for their own decision, it negatively affects all of us.
I am sure the response will be 'no one invests based on forums', but that simply isn't true. If someone does their research properly, then yes, they don't rely on forums but they also don't rely on Colin's comms or optimism. You can't have it both ways. Either they are influenced by fluff, such as forums and interviews, or they aren't. Look at how many people appreciate the contributions of theiceberg or Andy Mills and then consider that people might also be taking how board (actively or subconsciously), the continual assault on the company by a group of its shareholders. Why do you think paid trolls target forums - it isn't charitable work.
Also, if you plan to sell your stock then trashing it on a public forum it makes absolutely no sense beyond a childlike desire to stamp your feet.
I have lost significant money myself on stocks - last year in RMM due to the mine collapse and in KEFI due to kidnapping of mine staff by insurgents. I didn't trash the stock or the CEO. Instead of attacking my own investment, I quietly sold, then posted 'good luck everyone' comments on the forums and moved on without a backward glance. I would hate to be one of those bitter, ex-holders who haunts forums for years because they don't want anyone else to be successful.
I am probably not convincing anyone with this post but I am trying anyway because its actually in your interest too. Please consid
There has no doubt been any number of other factors that have contributed to the downturn in Xtract share price over last 6 months.
Sentiment in general, that mistrust from past experiences with LTH’s or CB in general, uncertainties that resource targets are going to be met by many, disappointment that an approach to AA or even a sale hasn’t happened already, Fairbride taking way too long to come good, kalengwa disappointment, investor part selling for purely personal reasons. I’m sure there are many more.
The company may not have helped by their approach to PR, even with a 5’hit hot Twitter feed it wouldn’t have really helped. After all we would still have seen the drop off in key areas of news flow around overall resource building data at BR, that has left us all clueless as to where the tonnages and grades currently are at. That really hasn’t helped investors in general to keep confidence after the early phase news saturation we had.
Any of these many reasons have resulted in sell’s over time. Level 2 has been well tracked and commented by Steve4077 (thank you ) how even small volumes have seen the bid get dragged lower. There is clearly not a big sell off though!
There is way too much evidence out already to warrant that trust in what the company are trying to achieve in what is clearly a difficult time.
Generally, whatever the tonnages are from RC, there is huge benefit financially still, to add significantly to the model from the gold, silver and moly that is there in high grades and further proving district potential if required.
" I do think he has over promised (I remember getting cross at one of his interviews last year). I have never brought into the Tier 1 talk and generally have lower valuations than him."
Careful Iceberg. With negative comments like that you may get labelled a basher :)
Yes agreed with all your post. Very balanced and reasonable points.
Lets hope no one just focuses only on your negative points and tries to completely mischaracterise what you are saying :)
Lucky, we need to be a bit more relevant with our facts.
The precious metals sector on the LSE has fallen from a high in Feb of 18,000 to a low in July of 8940. For good or ill, XTR is part of this sector. So in comparison to that we are pretty average. Certainly if i look at the likes of the companies, which have come down by 30% or so from their peaks (and just started to recovery) it seems a reasonable fall.
XTR has been bashed a little in the last few weeks, because of sentiment, but its hard to direct much of that to Colin. TBH volume is so low that a few people selling and or buying can raise the SP or lower it, very easily.
Of course we will all have our opinions as to why, but it could be a couple of large holders needing to sell to fund a pension withdraw and have nothing to do with the company.
I am not universally happy with everything I don't think that anybody would be with any company. I do think he has over promised (I remember getting cross at one of his interviews last year). I have never brought into the Tier 1 talk and generally have lower valuations than him.
However despite all this, the company is clearly valued far far too cheaply atm.
Whether or market is holding off for actual gold production and income figures before truely valuing Manica or whether it wants to see a JORC before valuing BR, I don't know.
I've said it many times, but there is far far too much emphesis on the AA contract IMO. If we get 1m tonnes of copper we are already talking about one of the biggest undeveloped Copper-Gold projects in Australia. It won't go unnoticed imo.
But anyway, the gist of my post is that we are in the same boat as the rest of the sector. Without the need to raise funds and having no debt, it's difficult to see many of the companies in our boat being in such a good position as we are. IMO
https://www.mining.com/hundreds-of-new-mines-required-to-meet-2030-battery-metals-demand-iea-report/
Just to prove I'm not just bashing the stock.