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Anypne heatd from CE recently, he has gone very quiet?
I recalled Caveatemptor posting this about a sale. Add on the extra couple of months or so to the programme, that would bring Colin’s target for a sale toJan-Feb 23
Caveatemptor >>>When we went to the investor event last October, CB said he had a target of completing the deal within 12 months - so i am happy to give him until the end of October this year to come up with the goods - but I will be disappointed if it takes any longer...<<<
Sounds like my call for a sale this year is through my rose tinted glasses again....... and believing the suggestion that short timeframes are defined in the buyback clause.
Thanks for the views. Consensus is no earlier than Q1 2023, and possibly later in 2023 - so plenty of time to add to my holding, then!
Late 2023 . Offered for sale sooner but I'm not expecting any shareholder bonanza before late 2023.
My guess for what it’s worth is that there will be a formal presentation to AA in Q3 of this year (assuming they don’t find something interesting at foot rot in which case perhaps late Q4). If AA decide they want it id guess the sale would complete middle of 2023. If AA pass id guess XTR would open a data room late q4 inviting bids by say end of Q1 with the possibly sale concluding late 2023.
I would be amazed and delighted if we had a sale this year.
I would say Q1 2023 is more likely. That said, over the years I've been here my, some may say rather pessimistic predictions, have all been proved to be completely wrong.
In time, they've always been shown to be far too optimistic !
Just add 6 months on to whatever CB has said and that will be more accurate than his original time scale.
This year...... I dont think enough has been said in recent RNSs to say more than that.
We have a description of a 'limited' level of drilling still to be done, ascot to be firmed up, Footrot to be tested and the model to be interpreted and ... but nothing firm on timeframes. Would be over the moon if this was by the end of August but that's just me being my usual optimistic self.
Any thoughts, anyone, on the timescales now for putting Racecourse up for sale?
Going by the exploration of racecourse from the mid eighties. It is apparent the plantation forrest that envelopes most of the main resource now, could well have, ‘not’ been fully planted back then allowing for any future potential mining activities.
Looking at satellite images of the Forrest imo, the trees do not look mature enough to be nearly 40 years old. You can still clearly see the rows in which they were planted where the crowns have not established enough to cover the forrest canopy. Shadowing from isolated existing older trees show they, in particular are a lot taller and mature than the plantation trees. Yes they could be a columnar species but are still imo not that mature in height.
Just an observation
I think with copper, the peak was exacerbated by China (consumer) hardly catching a breath with Covid to start with while the rest of the world (production) shut down..... now that's kinda flipped a bit in conjunction with the global slowdown so any drop in prices will undershoot the real market value.
If you believe in the Electrification story and the associated copper demand imbalance then you have to believe the price will recover strongly.
I'm not an expert.... but that's how I see it.
Worth bearing in mind too that when the potential at Bushranger was first revealed in Jan 21 with that first hole , the POC was below 8,000$ per tonne . Didn’t stop the share price hitting 9p briefly.
If Colin gets Bushranger sold off within 2 years of that initial hole I personally think that would be a brilliant achievement, especially given a few horrible macro factors.
Plus we will have a £10million profit pa mine chugging away in the background.
Yes he’s a salesman and a big talker but he delivers (ask jubilee/ kiwara) and a v good negotiator-
probably best to forget this for the summer and enjoy the pimms/whiskey/ orange juice as you prefer and the action will unfold in the last few months of the year.
Im more certain of the potential of a pre-existing 4-6 year recoverable high grade component at racecourse , through data from historical work. Also from infill drilling through potentially both drill phases of current campaign.
In both most recent podcasts I believe Colin maybe got it wrong or was certainly more confusing. in the first of the two podcasts as the recovery periods overlap.
In Zak’s podcast he said that the high grade component will have an infill programme to increase the higher recoveries to 5,6 or 7years done before the resource model is finished.
?With kev and Phil he mentions the high grade component at 4-6 years recovery, but then I got the impression that it will be extended further to 8 years, saying that might send us into an infill programme that will ‘extend’ recoveries from 4-6years to 8 years.
Here is a post from leprechaun1974 sharing his research on extent of the historical drilling done at racecourse.
Leprechaun1974
>>>RE: BRC014 2m @ 8.07g/t gold
29 May 2021 20:56
I've spent a lot of time on this website https://portal.geoscience.gov.au/ trying to find the locations of holes where we have previous assay results i.e. BRC014 that you are interested in. I have a spreadsheet of the location of drill holes from previous drilling (unfortunately only one from AA) but they are of little interest without the assay results.?As a thank you to the more knowledgable on here that have shared info I will also share what I have managed to collate.?https://leprechaun1974shares.blogspot.com/?It's rough and ready, only 2 posts, 1 with the map and 1 with the grades listed for the holes.<<<
There would have been sufficient time to complete a short shallow programme if was decided.
Excellent link & very much worth listening too.
As the mine in BR will be taking somethink like 10yrs to build, by then the % of electric cars being built & other copper based items will/would have gone well up on the present & can only increase the price of the sale of BR. As overall when looking at the price of copper you have to look at where it will be in 10yrs time not 10yrs back in time.
Yes, a good listen, thanks for sharing Andrew. Not that I require any more convincing that copper is one of the key metals to be invested in for the foreseeable future. The simple fact that in order for everyone to change their ICE car for an EV over the next 30 years is going to mean we're going to need to mine as much copper over the next 30 years, as has been mined previously in the whole of history, is enough to convince me!
Many thanks sq52 I had 174 stuck there, so close!
Hi Howezap, think it’s Leprechaun1974 you’re after. No idea why that stuck in my brain!? Just one of the many random things that do :)
Many thanks Andrew. A brilliant listen, and one which has served to recharge my batteries (no pun intended) after a tough few weeks. I’ve reminded myself, for the umpteenth time, of just why I’m invested so heavily in copper. Go XTR!
Can any member recall the full member name of leprechaun or can forward the link showing the shallow, quite intensive historical drill mapping in a grid pattern from Racecourse. It may have even been from as far back as when Lachlan star had the license.
Trying to understand the pre existing high grade component on the main inferred resource (71mt)
Or steer me in the right direction.
Cheers Andrew, that’s a really good listen after yesterdays pain (or joy if you’ve been buying in!)
Focusses me on why I’m in and why, at some point Bushranger is going to be worth a lot of money to someone.
Foundations are all set now, CB and team just need to build the story again.
re Copper.
I suspect the recent POC fall may not last that long :)
https://news.sky.com/story/how-the-electric-car-industry-is-turning-copper-into-gold-12643235
Basically to conclude for all new and existing people reading this board.......none of us has a fu@#ing clue what is going on :) happy investing!
My take-
It’s now been a whole month gone by since 31st may RNS reported the most recent hole completed, hole 52, amongst others had been sent for assays and were waiting for them to get back from the lab. Currently they are drilling at footrot finally. With a hole planned to test for deeper gold system back at Ascot, the drilling phase is about to be completed suggests after the Ascot deep drill, to then work the models and position the project in the global market. Which ti me doesn’t mean AA are out of the picture imo they just have first refusal.
In report they have ‘largely’ delineated Racecourse. This could mean a last hole to the very north west margin that was still undefined, also a couple of extra holes to sure up where there was a gap in the model. To me, the term largely delineated suggests a conclusion as are maybe happy with what they have there with the potential the couple of holes to sure up the model at least, have been completed already and in the last month.
It does appear from report that high grade component at Racecourse that will pay of the CapEx has either, already been, or will not be extended to beyond 4-6 years as was initially suggested they may do so in last podcast. Or at least there is no mention of that in the report. IMO from the podcast mention, I got the impression they would decide ‘after’ the financial evaluation to embark on the programme to extend to 6-8 years. But again they may have already completed the shallow infill programme if they decided to extend.
To sum up, there has potentially been up to six weeks plus of drilling available since 52 was last reported as waiting for assays, also allowing for when hole was completed, core sampling and logging, prep for assays and received by lab.
Plenty of opportunity to complete any of the outstanding drills mentioned before. No reason whatsoever to doubt the phase of drilling will end soon and project exploration will end. A third phase is very unlikely as the project objectives have now, we assume, been met. Any further drilling may then have a negative impact on the value curve. Just 10% extra investment for further exploration with time and operational costs will not necessarily return the same ratio of value from previous exploration.
Re Lucky's point about things left to interpretation...
"As with all porphyries, however, a full understanding requires much drilling to define the full potential and our projects are no exception. The phase 2 exploration programme is about to be completed and when we have modelled and evaluated all the raw information, we will be well advanced on the value curve and able to position the project in the global market."
So does that mean we still need to do a lot more drilling to define our full potential? Or does that just explain why we did so much drilling and its now all complete and we are evaluating info?
Can be read both ways imho.
And
“ position the project to global market”
That comment could mean AA have said they are not interested and we can start a bidding war with all other companies?
I think you could interpret that main para above as either very good news or that we have a lot more drilling to do to get us over the line.
Update!! Might not be my last day in paris, easyjet just cancelled our flight home.