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To show a more comparable resource example only, let’s look at Cadia Hill, Newcrest’s initial open pit that was production ready in ‘98
>>> Ultimately, a resource totaling some 352 million tonnes at 0.63 g/t gold and O.16 per cent copper, or 6.8 million ounces contained in situ gold and 0.5 million tonnes of copper was estimated<<
The resource was eventually classified as mostly ‘measured’ after a total of 369 drill holes were completed for approximately 157 000 metres that formed the basis of a feasibility study that led to board approval to proceed with development in mid-1996
>>>Improved understanding of the geology of the mineralised system also indirectly contributed to subsequent discoveries in the Cadia area.<<
Shows the amount of work there is still to be done at Bushranger for an acquirer with the above paragraph showing how a similar path to cadia discoveries, will be followed at bushranger, but with the ‘added’ significant difference that, there is a further open pit potential from BR’s 2nd significant porphyry, Ascot
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/294566549_Cadia_Hill_From_discovery_to_a_measured_resource_-_A_case_study
Hi Andrew
Looking at the below, which we know was sold for 170m upfront and 60 deferred consideration.
I get copper revenue of 6.3bn, using 8k per tonne, and gold revenue of 0.5bn using 1750 per oz. So 6.8bn total, if you then take the Eva project sale price you get between 2.5%-3.5% of in ground value (170-230 sales price).
https://cumtn.com/operations/eva-copper-project/overview/
I think the Eva project is more mature, but good to see there is so much headroom between your 1.75% (I use a similar figure) and what Eva sold copper mountain for assuming I’ve not messed up on the calc.
Cheers
James
Even if we discount any Gold value and only use Cu %
Assuming 0.27% Cu
500mt
$7700 POC in calc (used by Newcrest at Cadia East)
1.75% in ground value
0.84 GBP to USD
500mt x 0.27 = 1.35MT x $7700 = $10.4B x 1.75% =$182M
$182M = £154.56M
=circa 15.5p (1 Billion shares fully diluted)
Probably add 2 to 3p for Ascot and 2 to 3p for FB
My calcs with different realistic assumptions, keep bringing me back to 15p (min) to 20p.
With a a following wind and a bit of luck we may get sp to 25p (equivalent) inc FB???
Not only Ascot Guys, CuEq from RC will have no doubt had a boost from the high grade intersections found in the ‘hole in the model’ those are serous numbers that the modelling will be able to track some strike length particularly from holes like 13 that has a 28m intersect of 0.45CuEq and 26 with comparable zones amongst others. These lateral zones are quite extensive across Racecourse. Similar to the 3 lateral zones of high grade gold and copper at Ascot that has been traced over 1km of strike there.
>>>Significant intervals of gold mineralisation have been intersected on the western side of the Racecourse Inferred Mineral Resource in an area with no previous historical drilling, which will be incorporated into an updated Racecourse resource model
· The best intercept is from drill hole BRDD-22-054;
· 26m at 1.64g/t Au (1.24% CuEq) from a downhole depth of 338m
§ Including: 18m at 2.28g/t Au from a downhole depth of 346m
HI James
I was really just looking at Cu % but you are correct, their Au is better (but Ascot Gold values may still surprise from looking at some drill results). I would assume that our costs would be a lot less as we are open pit and not block cave - which may help to off-set their higher Au values?
Yes, I was surprised at $7700 used. Hopefully that may be $8k + with our calcs, assuming POC keeps rising over next few months??
Hi Andrew
Thanks for posting, aren’t the grades much higher than what XTR are likely to have? It’s 0.49 g/t AU and 0.27% CU, or around 0.6% cueq (unless my maths are bad).
Interestingly they are quite conservative with the prices used.
Cheers
James
A very welcomed post Andrew, I’m sure it will help settle some members nerves with the comparisons, and with RC mineable by open pit, that should have huge implications on the projects initial economic potential that will satisfy a big buyer such as Newcrest, as has been said, are perceived to be the more obvious acquirer due to their already presence close by.
Cadia DFS helps toward ‘painting that positive picture’ in the absence of Xtract’s forthcoming statements and mining study, that there will be enough economically recoverable copper and some gold shown at Rc along with Ascot and all the other added project potential, to give an acquirer the confidence to warrant further de risking to take it to the next stages.
That is all that needs to show from the modelling, along with all the other supporting evidence that will add further asset value.
https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-11/221111_Cadia%20PC1-2%20Feasibility%20Study%20demonstrates%20strong%20financial%20returns%20-%20Market%20Release.pdf
This is obviously only a small part of cadia
" with the development of PC1-2 accounting for approximately 20% of Cadia’s published Ore Reserves".
and is block cave mining so will be more expensive than our open pit.
Some interesting comparisons:
Cadia East PC1-2
0.27% Cu average grades
16 year LOM
280Mt
Copper price economic assumption 3.5 lb ($7700/ t)
It would seem from the info that has been released by Xtract or from CB's implications, our figures compare favourably with these (obviously they have not been confirmed).
IF CB's comments are correct and we have 500mt, then at 0.27% (seems reasonable assumption and the one I have been using) there is no reason to think that a major would not be interested in what we have. Whether that translates into a 10p, 20p or 30p buy-out remains to be seen !
Come on Newcrest , there's a better prospect just down the road :)
Some one must be bored at xtr :
https://twitter.com/resourcesxtract/status/1591140728448901120?s=46&t=eHZlUvguFwRM7FWaN_2d-Q
Latest xtr tweet :
https://twitter.com/resourcesxtract/status/1591137427594547200?s=46&t=iDbzPhzZqgF_pe-GrAFmmw
I’m thinking the Footrot results are in and there’s more work needed (so they were buried in the Ascot RNS)
In addition to the Ascot drilling, two exploration drill holes, FTDD-22-001 and 002 completed at the Footrot prospect, about 7km south-southeast of Racecourse, intersected lengthy intervals of alteration and iron sulphide mineralisation along with traces of copper and possible gold indicator minerals. This could suggest proximity to a mineralised porphyry - further modelling of the geophysical results here will be required.
Shouldn’t be any reason to withhold footrot assays as we have previously had all the remainder of RC and Ascot. Good point regarding the share options, you may be right too about the survey results Cygnus, can only hope.
I still think another webinar after all the resource estimates, 3D modelling and new pit concept along with survey lines with a narrative will be an ideal opportunity for Colin to ‘eventually’ be able to champion bushranger if all that earlier optimism is proved to be just. Particularly if AA don’t want back in.
The silence now is deafening, can’t be much longer to wait since Colin asked shareholders to hang on in there and have a bit more patience.
A bit!!!
I feel like a kid who was given a new bike at Easter and was told he was not allowed to ride it until Christmas.
That would be a nice Chimbo present.
Possibly, it’s a slow burn.. before Xmas would suit
Just thinking about the recent RNS about the options. The real message here is that discussions with AA have not yet started as, if they had, then that would constitute insider-trading. However, the RNS may also signal that discussion are just about to start: shall we say 'imminent' !
In a similar vein, I believe we are still waiting for assay results from Footrot plus the electrical survey results. I wonder if the fact we have not heard anything yet means this information is withheld financial/strategic reasons? Just musing...
cooper pit and not snake pit i'll take it you mean howezap.. no need to answer that one :-)
Back in your pit ntm nothing to see here!
ps : What I think they call a buy evrything rally day, today.. So I was all for a keen look in on the xtr share price ...
I'm devastated too .. was looking forward to seeing some - copper -piping
I'm devastated. My wife caught me looking at that video.
Porphyry porn! You gotta get excited about B-veins….
https://youtu.be/gL0WzJ70z3s
Feel ashamed….very ashamed ;-))
>>>cooler-than-expected inflation in the US as lowered expectations on the extent of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, supporting industrial demand. Copper prices were also supported by looming concerns of low supply.<<
•Trading economics.com
Good decent recovery this week, back up to levels last seen in June when on its way down.
It’s a start….
Cu $8,033mt. Great to be back in the $8k area again, just as the hoped for 'big transformational news' arrives.
Thanks for the reply ZeroMartix.. and no worries about what I was or wasn't saying in that second para.
NicetoMichu ... I didn't really understand what you were saying in your second paragraph.
My assumptions, based on what we have been told (stop laughing, everybody!!) are that the company does not need to raise capital, indeed, we are debt free, we have revenue, and we are not currently embarking on further costly exploration (ie drilling). So we have a significant resource asset, we don't need to sell it in a fire sale. And the world needs it and mining companies will want it.
In terms of cards held in your hands, XTR seems to be doing re3asonably well compareed to the cliched small exploration company.
There is nothing I can do about the share price. I would be happier if it were a few pence higher so the headline figure in my portfolio was showing in a different colour. We don't need new investors. Whatever the share price is now, it will be different if someone offers to take ProspectOre and all of its assets off our hands. PR is not going to winkle out some untought of potential buyer. The mining world know what is out there.
So, to me, it is that simple. At this moment in time.