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From existing conceptual mining study - >>the modelling key assumptions were based on the Cadia Hill Copper-Gold Mine located some 75km northwest.<<
How bout that!
Porphyry are all about consistency in low grade and in bulk.
Also from existing study prior to all additional ore to be included from phases 1&2.
>> The Conceptual Study concluded that the Racecourse deposit contains significant low-grade tonnes of copper and gold which may be economically recoverable at copper sale prices above US$4/lb. Optimal believe that the economic recovery and processing of ore with low grades between 0.1 - 0.2% Cu is pivotal for the economic viability of the Racecourse project, with the sensitivity analysis showing that for each 0.05% drop in cut-off grade the NPV drops by as much as AU$341 million. Overall, Optimal believe that taking account of the project's large size and relatively low grade, conditions should support the efficient and productive mining of the deposit
I see our bigoted misogynist, Willy wet-legs Porv is back. The origins of that proverb is more suitable for you champ
>> If men only fought outwards into the world?women might be devoted and gentle.?The fight’s got to go in some direction.?But when men turn Willy wet-legs?women start in to make changes;?only instead of changing things that might be changed?they want to change the man himself?and turn the poor silk glove into a lusty sow’s ear.?And the poor Willy wet-legs, the soft silk gloves,?how they hate the women’s efforts to turn them?into sow’s ears!?The modern Circe-dom!
Touché!
Welcome back Ted, always a pleasure playing bat and ball with you mate.
A relevant link
https://wordhistories.net/2016/12/28/silk-purse-sows-ear/
Just need the real numbers now Andrew.... cant be long now.
Colin, what can you tell us about progress in the model and number crunching?
The problem with doing these calcs, and I acknowledge that I am as guilty as anyone in doing so, is that there are 5 variables ( %Cu, tonnage Mt, POC, % inground value and USD conversion)
When you multiply these 5 variables out the results can be substantially different with just a slight change to the variable value.
Example
5 Variables
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 32
Take just 10% of the variables
1.8 x 1.8 x 1.8 x 1.8 x1.8 = 18.9
Add just 10% on
2.2 x 2.2 x 2.2 x 2.2 x 2.2 = 51.5
So result is 19 to 51 (circa x 2.7 difference with just a small 10% reduction to 10% increase)
USD / GBP has moved more than 10% in last 6 weeks
As others have said, it helps kill the time :)
howezap, yes, I have a spreadsheet with multiple variables that I like to play with, using both conservative and enthusiastic figures to get a feel for the range of possible outcomes. Kills the time.....
Hi Cygnus, of course, that’s just as good a way as any, my point being that with an MRE a more realistic value can be attributed to Ascot toward that ‘overall’ value in response to a previous up in the air value of 2-3p for Ascot.
But what is true is that is probably is more reliable to guess the tonnages than to try and calculate dimensions of the ore bodies, as just adding 10’s of metres to variables changes the results wildly.
We’ve been here many times before! But it at least alleviates the boredom while waiting.
howezap, I prefer to add RC to Ascot plus some arm waving estimates for probable anomalies/porphyries (plus Footrot) making up a sum total of about 2 MT. I think in total we must be approaching this figure.
We’ve done RC to death now on estimates. What of Ascot then?
So with some rough calcs on Ascot taken from Google earth and drill locations map
There is about 1k of strike stated in RNS so if we use say, 700m as is not cuboid with a trimmed down 300m wide and 300m deep. A 0.28 average grade considering the extra gold and silver credits and using Bens formula, and there was a factor of 10 correction on grade I recall. I’m sure it was this but correct me if is wrong formula….
700x300x300x2.7x.0028=476kt CuEq
Used RC as a guide to Ascot and in same ball park as Andrews estimate, but bear in mind the overall resource estimate will be more than just the part of the resource that is open pittable (500mt)
Knowing minimum 1.7km length, (from 71mt resource) 600 wide by 600 deep
So for example and trimmed down to-
1200x400x400x2.7x.0028=1.45mtCuEq
Now taking into consideration this posted by Theiceberg-
Theiceberg 04/11/21 @18.57 >>>……for those interested a discount of 50% is applied (industry standard) for inferred-indicated over measured with a PFS.
So Ascot,
700x300x300x2.7=170.1mt
170.1x0.28= .476mt x $7700= $3.665B x1.75%=$64.1M
$64.1m = £54.25m
One could assume then, with an inferred MRE, a value of Circa 5-6p for Ascot fully diluted.
Statements, sorry typing and watching the F1 rerun.
None of which is completely true, sweeping staements.
If you are in at this price the opposite is true going forward
Yes, primarily because one is awesome and the other is rubbish.
Copper prices back in the late 90’s when Newcrest opened its initial open cut mine at Cadia hill, were sub $1. Nearly 400% increase since then. Even taking into account the inflation adjustment of about 75% increase it shows how rising copper prices from increased demand has and will further drive exploration toward lower economic cut off grades along with the advancements made in mining extraction and separation technologies, which means more resources old and new have a better chance of being economically recoverable since when Cadia Hill was first financially modelled.
So although geologically Cadia hill and RC are a good comparison, they couldn’t be any further apart from their financial evaluations in their own very different social and economic climates.
Close on Friday was $8780 ($3.92 lb)
https://www.ifcm.co.uk/market-data/commodities-prices/copper
Cu $8,440.5 looking like a possible strong end to year.
Steve
Current share in issue are approx 850m, however with unexercised options/warrants the fully diluted figure will be around 1bn (assuming the share price is above 10p)
Cheers
James
Just out of curiosity, how many shares are actually in issue? Reason for asking is because everywhere I read, it says there's 850m, yet people are saying there's 1/1.1 billion.
Cheers
Hey Ian
Without checking they have issued approx 250m shares since the intra day high.
Cheers
James
Approximately answered my own question I think via RNS on shares in issue versus intraday high price of about 9.5p. Market cap about £80 m.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VobK1e7-qTg
Manica at 5min 40 secs in
Oh and reiterated commercial production end of year.
Clip up from Empress presentation at red cloud mining conference, they have reported first gold pours completed and stated they are receiving revenue from Manica.
>>>the modelling will be able to track some strike length particularly from holes like 13 that has a 28m intersect of 0.45CuEq<<
Hole 11 was the hole I mistook 13 to be that had high grade gold This from hole 11 assay summary.
>> Of particular interest are the significant intervals of comparatively gold-rich mineralisation encountered in the upper part of the hole which may be indicative of a mineral zonation system at Racecourse
Apologies, was tired and bleary eyed on phone last night.
Hi Andrew, may I ask your reasoning behind only a 20-30 million GBP added valuation for Ascot?
Would it not amount to more than that based on the extent of mineralisation now over a Km and of higher grade gold in particular and silver. From what we know, there is adequate intervals of boreholes to support an inferred MRE
If I recall correctly (without checking posting history) iceberg commented previously that an inferred resource is ‘generally’ discounted by about 50% over ‘measured’