Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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It’s just us idiots/master investors left.
Brilliant comment Jezzoo, in that no one has a bloody clue what category they fall in 🤣
it’s not funny I know!
Its all very Dull :(
6 weeks ISH more wait is nothing here on the scheme of things.. and into those weeks some sort of in anticipation rally might even start too, hopefully
(Parking existing holders - some of which might easily add more here too as we go, of course - for a moment; if I were new to xtr it would appeal strongly to me on a fundamentals basis at anything even vaguely around the current s/p. Bushranger valued at zero leaves plenty of room for upside and none for downside -as I believe he's now said no more drilling against the current overall dynamic for it.. that overall dynamic could change over time granted.. but it shouldn't be open to minus valuation whatever anymore now imho - and Manica at under 2p is a very un stretching valuation imho.. and news due on both end ish September too .. which should be whatever flavour of good on Manica .. and if even some morsel of news goodness on bushranger model then zero current value can of course be added somewhat too by the market too)
It's imminent
Jez its just a waiting game now.
I think those who wanted out or had to sell have in the main done so.
It’s just us idiots/master investors left.
It seems even Her Most Bonkersness has left the building.
Not all bad then eh ?
The half yearly report has always been released on 30 Sept for last three years
Q2 production update often been released on the same day or near this date so it looks very likely that 30 sept will be D -day for both updates.
I guess if anyone thinks the FB Gold production figures will be good then they have the next 6 weeks to buy-in before a potential rerate?
(Not too sure if rerate means 2p, 2.5p or 3p though :)
Thanks Andrew, as I thought. 👍
Just for clarity to the casual observers.
From Q1production update.
>>>Xtract will be reporting production and gold price statistics for Fair Bride on a quarterly basis with Xtract's 23% net profit share to be included in its annual and interim financial accounts.
HZ
I am assuming and hoping that the next quarterly report will contain actual profit made from FB, not just the production figures. I think that is what the market wants to see and not , what could be, financially misleading production figures.
I can't see how the Q2 production figures are not going to be substantially higher looking at Q1 RNS "clues"
That said, the market may be thinking, with good reason, why is there not complete transparency with the income and profit figures? Yes production will be better in Q2 but what does that actually mean to the profit?
Until that doubt is allayed, then the sp may not appreciate. If CB legacy issues were not apparent, then I suspect it would be well over 2p on future assumptions alone.
Well that's they way I say it.
>>>even in an RNS it seems !
Andrew, are we still on the same page believing that the market will not respond to income generated until it sees cash in bank. Currently Q4 ‘22 and Q1 ‘23 have just reported gold produced. Do you think this is still the case, and waiting for mid year audited report?
It's a shame Todd Bohely isn't in the market for mining projects. BR would now be worth a $billion !...
Andrew. True, but it does provide good buying opportunities imho etc etc. what's not to like about gold !.
"The market is very much taking a Doubting Thomas attitude to his record of overpromising and under achieving"
Yes it has and understandably so. But Its actually gone too far the other way now IMHO.
The sp went up too far on sentiment and false promises, and now its gone down too far (IMHO) on sentiment and not believing anything that is said...even in an RNS it seems !
It was interesting listening to the Sunday roast guys reeling off a list of companies which they felt were incredibly undervalued against their amazing stables of projects.
One thing they all have in common, Colin Bird is involved. The market is very much taking a Doubting Thomas attitude to his record of overpromising and under achieving
>>HZ you are saying it’s acceptable or understandable to completely mislead shareholders.
I got called naive for once suggesting they couldn’t hold back results as was against AIM rules.
All I’m saying is CB is clever and careful in what he actually says.
Right or wrong is subjective of course. Do I agree, not particularly as if I had known early days this would likely take 3-4 years then I would not have initially invested. But with a far better understanding now I am happy to wait longer.
Hi cyberiachas >> Turned out to be nearly all complete rubbish- BR anywhere between 1.8 and 2.6 million tons lol
Those assumptions were made before Ascot was identified as a separate porphyry, you could argue his assumptions were based on if all of what would have been racecourse with the strike extension of 3+Km identified was delineated and drilled out, may well exceed 2mtCu/Eq
At present there’s 1.3mt classified but we do not know how much more there is at racecourse and particularly Ascot that has been drilled but did not make it into the resource statement.
If he had said we are looking at a JORC of between 1.8-2.6mt then that is clearly different.
As shareholders we can huff and puff as much as we like but it is not until the MARKET starts believing CB that the share price will move, again applies across all CB companies.
HZ you are saying it’s acceptable or understandable to completely mislead shareholders (apart from insiders of course) in order to prop up the share price for whatever the reason? There’s a word for that and if he did it in the USA rather than on AIM the consequences could have been a lot more unpleasant.
I think we need to reset and look at where all the assets are now and what stage. Costs v Productoin (Delivery) over time.
CB said what he has and its served his purpose (goal of placing at the time maybe or flexed his muscles to AA)
Time to deliver now.
"although one can loosely compare it to a weather forecast in that it is based on assumptions that are made at any given time. Once there is a change in the meteorological/ geological picture in this case, then the longer term forecast changes"
Sorry dont agree with that analogy. That gives CB far too much of a "get out"
using that same but better analogy, it would be like the met office giving a forecast of very hot and sunny in January, then saying we've changed our view as its now -5 degrees outside and snowing !
It was never going to be hot and sunny in January !
Quite sobering listening to that again. Turned out to be nearly all complete rubbish- BR anywhere between 1.8 and 2.6 million tons lol
He wasn’t giving hopeful projections- he was adamant about the scale and the timescale.
He also misrepresents the manica share as 23%of the gold produced, which was clear even then wasn’t the case. And gave fuel to certain Ma niacs.
And eureka ! About to monetise then just disappears.
I’m not sure why he’s surprised when the market ignores his recent puffs for the AFP and GLR assets.
Agree wholeheartedly with you Matty, although I am of the view that your comment should apply to ALL CB's companies!
I do tend to agree Jezzoo, although one can loosely compare it to a weather forecast in that it is based on assumptions that are made at any given time. Once there is a change in the meteorological/ geological picture in this case, then the longer term forecast changes. CB has really pushed the boundaries of what is morally right considering our money is at stake.
What folk need to consider is without any hard hitting promo to get the share price rallied into the 5-6p range the £10m+ fund raises would have killed the market cap with massive dilutive effect even at 2p. So with Fairbride commissioning and ramp up taking as long as it did, he couldn’t risk a collapse in share price if a further raise was needed at that time so the over optimism and exaggerated statements needed to continue up to the resource statements being released.
I think the majority is going the RNS route now Matty, hence the total lack of them.
Howezap I appreciate you playing devils advocate but he shouldn’t have said all those things if they weren’t likely to happen even if he did cover his a rse, those roasts aren’t designed to be picked apart analytically they are straight forward PR vehicles that should contain useful information not misleading information that may an did cause people to invest, me included.
"you can't believe a word he says."
I believed him when he said he'd had a 30k pay rise.