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Really good point you make Cygnus, also, with the lack of market reaction to news so far, albeit along with other market influences that have kept stocks down. Would guess the company will have a strategy to as and how the resource is made up and when the market is informed to maximise impact. As credible a reason as the delays, both could well be concurrent.
Lucky
That sounds a good junior exploration share - you should invest in it!
However, its in Chile, which currently is a problem.
I've sold all my mining shares of companies that have predominantly Chilean mines.....
I've bought shares in companies that mine in DRC instead as its far safer!
Orange, no thank you. I will not be investing in any Chilean or peru mining companies. I was sharing because the amount of contained copper compared to the MCap was surprisingly low compared to the possible value everyones thinks bushrangers worth.
They have nearly 6MT of contained copper, good infrastructure around it, similar grade to maybe slightly better than ours, surrounding mines owned by majors, open pitable, starting at surface and the only problem I can see is its in Chile.
Thier worth around £180m.
I don't know what other assets they own, just trying to understand how to value bushranger......??
Lucky - There are lot's of reason for the relatively low market cap for that company.
Firstly, the infrastructure isn't really nearby .g. it is 60km to electricity (Bushranger literally has it meters away) and it is 2,000m up a mountain in the Andes. The capex reflects this, with an estimate of close to £2bn, whilst Bushranger would be a small fraction of that.
Secondly, there is jurisdiction risk. Despite relative stability in recent years, South America is a volatile place politically. Chile has just elected a far left government and they are openly talking about introducing mining levies to redistribute wealth (no doubt significant chunks into the pockets of the politicians). And far left politics is not opposed to a bit of nationalisation from time to time either. Chile is a hugely more risky place to invest your money than Australia whether you are a PI or one of the major mining companies.
Lastly, from what I can tell, they are planning to finance and mine themselves. Again, this adds huge risk as something can easily go wrong in the next decade or so that it will take before they start making any money. XTR on the other hand are planning a quick sale which means less money than if it mined for the next 100 years but a very nice return in the relative short term... this will be reflected in the SP when a new JORC is issued and it is certain the project is viable.
And very lastly, IMO Bushranger is going to deliver a LOT more than 2mt of cu Eq. We've been sizing up Racecourse for the last year but there is a family of porphyries down there and I do not believe Racecourse is the daddy... there is a lot more to come.
Steve, is that 2 billion capex in American dollars?
Xtracts current financial model which is nearly pre feasibility study has the racecourse down for 1.5billion Australia dollars... it is cheaper, but I wouldn't say its a fraction of the cost.
Lucky - The presentation I read for the Andes project stated $1.88bn USD for the 'initial' capex. XTR used $1.45bn AUD ($1.05bn USD) in their conceptual pit study for the 'total' capex. Hard to make a direct comparison when you don't really know what either company mean by 'initial' or 'total' capex but I'll revise my statement to say Bushranger would be a lot cheaper! ;)
The point I was trying to make is that capex and risk play a huge part when assessing and comparing the value of assets. A low risk and low capex asset can literally be worth 10 time that of a high risk and high capex asset. You could even have two near identical porphyry systems but the locations mean that one is worth billions, whilst the other is worth nothing. All part of the fun when trying to work who to put your money on!
Just to reinforce Steve's point. Ultimately, the value of a mine is the sale value of the metal minus the total cost required to extract, process and transport the ore and minus the tax levied by the jurisdiction. Higher grade or larger amounts are no use if you need to mine underground, halfway up a mountain in a desert (the Atacama in Chile is the driest desert in the world), and then build transport and power links tens of miles across that terrain and then pay high tax rates on the potential profit. In contrast, Bushranger is an low-extraction-cost open pit, with major transport links and power already very close by and near a major port.
The situation in Chile in terms of jurisdiction is also problematic, given the recent election of a far-left president with mining companies in his sights, compared to the very friendly environment of Australia.
There are many large deposits in the Andes region that are undeveloped because of the economics and other associated risks.
It's good to see some of you doing a bit more comparison shopping.
"There are many large deposits in the Andes region that are undeveloped because of the economics and other associated risks."
Yes, and likewise, there are many more large low-grade deposits in safe jurisdictions, that are undeveloped just simply because of the economics.
Remember, xtract's scoping study showed an uneconomic project at any copper price under $5. And barely turning a profit @ $5 is nowhere appealing enough to justify putting $1 billion plus of capex at risk. Paying 47 million pounds for that prospect is still baffling to me.
porvenireal
I agree with you, its good that some are doing a bit more comparisons.
But I also think its good if some do a bit more research. Things have got a lot bigger !! And the economics will have got a lot better :)
26 July RNS
“Open pit modelling was carried out using the currently defined JORC (2012) compliant Inferred Resource of 71Mt @ 0.44% Cu and 0.064 g/t Au at a cut-off of 0.3% Cu, as well as additional unclassified resources at the Racecourse prospect”
(So study was done before p1 and p2 results incorporated. Its massively increased since then)
“The Conceptual Study concluded that the Racecourse deposit contains significant low-grade tonnes of copper and gold which may be economically recovered at a copper sales price above US$4 per lb”
(Again, that was also before p1 and p2 results incorporated)
“I am further encouraged by the fact that the modelling key assumptions were based on the Cadia Hill Copper-Gold Mine located some 75km northwest. We confidently expect to be able to significantly increase the current Racecourse Mineral Resource, following the results of the Phase One drilling as well as the Phase Two drilling programme which has recently commenced, and any increases to the Mineral Resource will enhance the economics of a mining operation at Racecourse.”
“When the results of the Phase One and Phase Two drilling programmes are incorporated into the Racecourse mineralisation model, Xtract expects that the Inferred Resource will increase significantly in size, which will have a strongly positive effect on the overall economics of a mining operation at Racecourse.”
Oh, I forgot to say. It keeps getting bigger and more economical .....
What you were referencing was the start point, not the end point.
Andrew 4444,
You made a good assessment of Porvenireal's take on XTR. However, you missed one point which I thought was very mis-informed. The statement that XTR had paid £47M for the Bushranger prospect! Don't know where that came from but I believe it was more like £1.25M. Not sure if that's £ or $ but it's a snip at half the price, in either currency.
I think Porvenireal is suggesting (correct me if I am wrong) that the £47m is circa the current MktCap and that is all being propped up by Bushranger hope ?
The current Mktcap is in fact supported by the reality of revenue from the African assets due any time now. Once those revenues start flowing the current Mktcap will I feel rerate higher.
Bushranger is in for free... I would put the value of that up against ANY other resource ANYWHERE !
That was the MC he was referring to.
Andrew and Littlewing,
It was Porvenireal's last sentence "Paying 47 million pounds for that prospect is still baffling to me." Suggests he meant Bushranger!
But, either way, he is clearly mis-informed.
Maybe you all got him wrong.... maybe he was ramping XTR.... If the value of the sale of Prospect Ore is 47million, it means that the sale price of Racecourse/Ascot etal must be around 1.7billion....
Id say Porvenireal is a 'triffic ramper.
Glr, have just got an rns. Colin is back at it and his rns machine still works. Maybe xtract next?
Got a few glr and that seems like a brilliant rns.
Porvernireal is fathertedfeck.
Deffo not doing it for the ramps =)
Ah yes - I remember when he replied using the wrong account and outed himself :)
No secret there, I just lost the old password.
That's Mad Ted
The project has gotten larger since my last visit, and one or two holes have had decent enough intercepts....but even 3 billion tons of sub-grade ore is probably no better than 300 million tons. Whereas if they find 100 million tons of near-surface .6% CuEq, well I would change my tune...that could maybe pay off the capex fast enough to be interesting...and I would never rule that out. Drill rigs are ultimately fueled not by deisel, but by hope. A lot of the tons so far are simply too deep to justify a mega open pit ala Escondida etc, given the below average grades. I would never say never, and I'm a yuuge copper bull, but if I'm buying the 47th best deposit in the queue, I might do that if it's still 5-10 million quid, and I still don't endorse that optionality approach in general.
Down with that sort of stuff Ted !
Careful now.
porvenireal is having his fun and that's all that matters