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Best to think of BR as an out of the money long-dated call option.
Surely the main action here will be drilling in Zambia. I just have no idea when it will start, despite the ending of the rainy season.
O and W
Difference is though we dont know what is under the ground at Zambia. Could be the jackpot or could be nothing and worthless.
Apparently BR is the 10th biggest copper discovery in last 10 years. But unfortunately worthless at current POC .
Ntm agree this certainly isn’t a sprint but every month cash burns so a wiggle on would be good for SP.
Put option?
At least if SP dips can load up sub 1 - it’s catatonic here
News could be any day now..
It's very unlikely but you can't rule it out
Col:
"Eyup Ben 'Owell , arv bowt a shovel, let's get diggin' lad"
Hi Andrew
You may well be right. I am of the understanding, an eventual valuation will be on the projects NPV, using current or hopefully updated mining scenarios including being based on a smaller mill and plant with copper prices ranging across all scenarios from 8-11k. These ‘will be’ the copper pricing ranges used that NPV will be determined from, and eventual valuation will be based on, not 12-15k!
However, my only reservation is that the economic model being only supported at conceptual level when complete, the economic model will not be robust enough to use a discounted cash flow model across the projected LOM.
Away from Valmin code and on global market, a DCF model can usually be used toward a higher valuation than one determined by Valmin. But have a feeling it needs to be supported at pre feasibility for DCF to be used. Need to look into it a bit more. Still early days.
Looking across the various projects Jez, it would appear any news from the company in relation to progress or planning is at the mercy of the timescales of various independent consultants.
Appear to have outsourced technical studies with the exception of the Western Foreland licenses to concentrate all their manpower on. News from here next, could be the only one they have actual control over.
BR may have 3 different consultancies working on the optimisation, maybe a fourth later if they do more drilling.
Optimal mining, Lycopodium who are processing experts and, likely an alternative pre concentration tech being trialled. So could literally be next week or another 6 or 9 months.
Silverking data has been referred to an external geophysical consultants only last month to refine targets for follow up drilling. Could be some time before any action plan is announced.
Kakuyu parked up for now as warrants major exploration??
It's an excellent setup that means almost all project are progressing, rather than one at a time.
By all accounts, the teams engaged are highly rated professionals. Bodes well IMO.
Most of these outsource suppliers get fully paid when contracts complete. So they won't be hanging around, especially so as copper exploration moves into a purple patch right now.
Just one project coming off will move this significantly IMO.
A very notable point from your comment Banzai - “Most of these outsource suppliers get fully paid when contracts complete.”
Yes, in hard cash and not in shares!
Manica disposal payments will allow them to prioritise the potential and prospectively of the Zambian licenses without dilution, which now the disposal has been passed it will see the phase 2 earn in of a further 3million ‘if warranted’ also be funded from treasury. (RNS’d)
Very positive projection going foreword.
There are a few different avenues of good news that could be RNS'd soon (ish) here, I'd guess ..
And even heads up that latest cash in the bank from Manica seeing a drill program kicking off soon off the back could rally this decently imho .....
(as long as there isn't a bunch of quick selling into any early buying...granted there'll always be a bit from penny traders in and out in short order.... but even a few ten of thousand gbp buy and holding here should overcome such..so roll on 1.5 p to 2p s/p window upon us here thru May please.. )
Hello NTM and ZAP
sorry to bother you guys.
Been reading RNS 3 April Silver king
It states
An in-house non-JORC (2012) resource estimate by an external contract geological company was commissioned by Glencore in 2012 ("Non-Compliant Resource"). The Non-Compliant Resource reported an estimate of 268,971 tonnes at 2.7% Cu at a 0.5% Cu cut-off
Cut off in 2012 was 0.5%.
Since CU price miles higher is the cut off %lower❓
If so how much more contained CU is there❓
Thanks for your time
Yours cruelly
Hope this helps Ma.
https://www.amazon.com/calculator/s?k=calculator
Thanks Jez
but calculator doesn't tell me if cut off in Zambia is lower than 0.5%❓
You AR* E
Best I leave you in the capable hands of Mr Zap, Cruella
You love me really Ma, I can tell.
Xx
Hey Dani
Theoretically you would think a higher Cu price would lower the economic cut off grade but generally it comes down to the selected or required processing method used with the goal of giving the least dilution or extracting the cleanest concentrate before a different method of extracting the copper is required
Methods generally vary as the grades reduce. Hence why a high grade resource tends to have a higher cut off grade.
So many different factors can determine the economic cut off grade, but will have its lower limits as methods to extract also become increasingly more expensive the lower the grade.
Not much happening here. Colin must be busy creating value.
Thanks for your essay zap. Makes sense.
Remember you saying something along the lines of ,'geology doesn't just stop'
Is it highly likely to find more Super high grade sections of CU ?
Yours cruelly
Jez wot bit of Am Over you don't you understand ❓
Is he creating value for us or for someone else? You never really know with Colin..
Who knows what dodgy backroom deals took place in downtown Maputo...
''Is he creating value for us or for someone else? You never really know with Colin..''
Interesting question Ben 'Owell...but I'll leave it to others to answer that...
As it's a slow day, and for my own entertainment, I'll look to derive my own question to answer from the above but taking out the ''for us or for someone else'' bit leaving : 'Is he creating value''?
To the extent of him directly and indirectly paying salaries for a bunch of people - who pay taxes, buy stuff etc - he is certainly contributing his bit to keeping Capitalism ticking along, in fairness to the man. And there's always the chance he'll find what he's looking for too .. and that becomes a production mine.. and the sundry further value add that can come off the back of that... as in Manica for a small eg and Kiwara for a big eg
And to the extent of us Shareholders getting lucky then we can/could derive financial benefit here too.. Granted the History of AIM especially generally shows that shareholders are often effectively 'donating' our money... in such circumstance I absolutely believe we're adding value to the World..as in us allowing all the above to ever have a chance of happening in the first place, so fair play to us all too. And whenever I get annoyed/incredulous/despairing of this game, I always fall back on the thought that by even playing this game, at least I am doing a bit to contributing to the World ticking along:
Happy bank holiday to all
N2M, with that philosophy of life, you should instead be donating your capital bit by bit to your local homeless person outside your nearest Waitrose/Sainsbury/Morrisons, and see the tangible evidence of your generosity of spirit.
Colin Bird is to be found hanging out around my nearest Little Waitrose and Tesco Metro - both on Old Brompton Road, South Kensington within 100 meters of Xtract HQ - so I'm doing some of that by betting here thanks Olderandwiser.
Top form NtM, that was a quick witted response.
What we got?
The company have a good plan and a real opportunity to fulfil its objectives from free cash flow. If you have the belief that copper will see huge demands placed on it against increasing supply headwinds, then you can get behind that plan and now knowing it has breached US$10k.
You can clearly see the strategy in play and the path the management are taking with recent acquisitions through JV buy ins. For a junior, having significant cash flow guaranteed until ‘27 to cover operating expenses to further develop projects including drilling, sets Xtract apart from most of its peers without exception. This is being achieved and looking likely they will continue to do so without diluting shareholders unnecessarily.
With the wide spectrum of risk and the different types of company from across the whole resource sector, from pure exploration plays through to major producers. What that income means for Xtract attracting new investors, is that the company have moved out of the bottom tier of junior explorers that must make up 80-90%+ of all companies in the resource sector that ‘rely’ on raising capital from shareholders via allocation of new shares.
With positions prioritised in the highly prospective Western foreland, having that full operational control toward increasing license values, free from any controlling senior partner. Positions will be more vulnerable as prime targets for M&A activity when it intensifies.
Then there is BR and other exploration plays in Zambia that have huge upside potential and the chance for Xtr to have further cash flow from mining operations under their small mines strategy.
I’ll take the Pepsi challenge.
HZ
Did you get all that from the company website :)
If not, I would recommend you apply for the post of PR rep !