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Morning Andy and fellow Xtractors,
Long time no talk, as I have just taken a back seat due to all the speculative posts in the absence of news for long periods.
I think the MMP figures give a solid vlue to H1 production, but you have an interesting take as to why Big Bird is not making more of it - a suppression of share price by a greedy BOD to get away cheap options. Makes sense - Colin probably has his eyes on a new Dubai racehorse.
A444 as with many things XTR related there's a lack of clarity.
In summary I don't expect any great uplift from FB Q2 production stats but moderately hopeful for Q3. They better be good to offset the surprising increases in alluvial costs which is disappointingly given no commentary.
It's not a given that the gold from FB needs be sold for income to be
reported in the XTR accounts. This should be done based on an estimate of XTR share of net operating profit earned in the relevant accounting periodwhich is normal practice....
My interpretation of the agreement is that settlement to XTR will be through $ by MMP and not by MMP giving physical for XTR to sell. I accept giving physical could be the case. However is physical were the case I'd expect a greater increase in gold stocks which whilst they are valued at cost c$900 per oz would still be noticeable in the balance sheet.
The communication is really poor. I wonder if the share price is being held back to justify a low strike price when releasing a new tranche of share options to management c1.5p.
No matter how each individual poster on here interprets the RNS the general concensus is the company would be better off with a CEO in charge and have CB take a back seat in the running of the company.
I think he's no longer really capable of running several companies at once and when you think about it, the people below him who are responsible for the day to day running of all these companies know he will get all the flack for their shortcomings so aren't really motivated to do the job properly. Just a thought.
The SP is a product of the lack of faith in the big boss.
Andy
I agree that we have a very good idea of what the H1 production figures are but the two questions I am not sure about is:
1. how much of Q2's gold production has been sold and converted into revenue?
2. How much of that Q2 revenue has been reported in H1?
Until we get that broken down in Q2 results we dont know
I agree that Q3 results are looking good.
Whatever the final profit figures are, we are now finally making a profit at GROUP level and not just the alluvial / gold production side. Which was always been profitable in isolation of total company costs when G and A was not included.
The irony is that now that we are profitable as a company, the MC is at its lowest for years and even lower than when we were a loss making company at group level!
Most Aim companies are loss making so there can't be many Aim companies that are making a profit at group level with an MC of Β£10M.
But I guess that's the negative CB factor at work here :)
A444 and HZ
From a production volume perspective Empress knew weeks ago their royalty for H1 was $697k which equates to c340kg based on their statutory reported royalty figure.
I don't see much room for ambiguity in the production volume.
The xtract "provisional" statement must therefore relate to operating costs and very disappointing that this isn't nailed down.
If not nailed down I'm concerned it may delay payment to Xtract and may explain the surprising level of trade debtors in the rather crude interim report.
It's good Empress got off their comfy leather chairs and went out to Moz and checked up on their interests. What they reported seems positive for Q3.
"On May 2, 2023, the Company announced, based on reports provided by MMP, that MMP has continued to
de-risk the mine and plant with production increasing month over month, including through the rainy season in the fourth quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023. Gross mine production has grown from 460oz in Jul
2022 to 2,260 oz in June 2023, an increase of 390% MMP reports the plant is largely considered completed
and the open pit operation continues to be de-risked. Grade control efforts are leading to a stable feed grade
and the plant is averaging a metallurgical recovery of 89% in June 2023 as compared to 85% in the second
half of 2022 as reported by MMP, Current throughput and grade provide further room for material growth in production for the longer term, and as such, management expects continued increases in production,revenue, and revenue attributable to the royalty.
In June 2023, Empress conducted a positive site visit with the on-site MMP management. MMP management reported that throughput has grown by 11% per month grades have averaged 1.6 gt, metallurgical recovery has risen to c90%, and gold recovered has increased by 17% per month since production started in July, 2022. On July 6, 2023, the Company amended the Manica Royalty Agreement to reflect the fact that MMP, Manica royalty payor, successfully obtaining its own gold export licence. This has allowed the Company and MMP to significantly simplify the mechanics of how the Company receives its Manica royalty payments and the monthly reporting of sales and royalty payment information"
Andrew, I agree. We just need those figures before Q4 is out, they should be good, better then Q1 so I do not understand the delay. A delay is normally XTR's way of dropping bad news.
zap are you for real
maiden income fairbride quoted as other income ffs and dear cπ―l talks about ******* rainy season.
bob busy now but will copy paste bits i wrote on my mini group later
jez
tried reaching out
this is wot i wrote
buongiorno π
in life if i want something i always ask
what's the worst someone can say noβ
well bored members xtr can't even manage that !!
may need to take it uppa level
wink wink ππ
bored members grating on my nerves just like cisco is for reason i can't disclose
My take on all / or some Q2 figures being incorporated in H1 is the same as HZ view
If all production has been incorporated in H1 then there can't be any projections as all the production figures must have been known. The fact that the word "projections" was used in the RNS shows that ALL the productions figures have not been incorporated.
The problem is we don't know how much of Q2 production was incorporated ie most of it , a bit or none of it. We also don't know how much Gold is unsold from production in Q2.
Q2 figures may all be very disappointing, or ok or fantastic, but until we get the unequivocal Q2 figures with amount of unsold Gold stated etc we can't make a judgment call on Q2 IMHO
But it does appear IMHO we have not had the FULL Q2 figures incorporated in H1 due to this statement....
"with PROJECTED figures for this second quarter on target."
Well, that's my take any way :)
NOT summarised zap β‘β‘ββ
No not Q2 ma, there was this,
>>Following the prolonged rainy season in Mozambique , production gathered pace in the second quarter ended 30June 2023 with projected figures for this second quarter on target.
So full figures for Q2 not complete to have been fully incorporated. Potentially seeing a further increase on the reported Β£1.67m revenue for that period ??
You after getting more smiles per hour from the Vette with your blat to the dentist jez
I did that in the Vette today, only fly in the ointment was it was blat to the dentist.
Fair one Jez, when I have them doubts I go out for a blat in the Camaro and they all go away. π
NOT summarised zap β‘β‘ββ
H1 write up was a ducking CAR CRASH BOB
just mending flat tyre on me bike then will copy and paste snippets of what I wrote on me mini group
Watch this space β¨β¨β¨π
That's precisely the dead rat under the floor howezap, CB is well known for pushing good news. He mere says as you say "Financial- During the period, other revenue which relates to Xtracts profit from Fairbride amounted to Β£1.67m "
Maybe I've smelt this rat before but I think he's hiding something and I think it may be tied in with his recent "finds" in Zambia. I'm not sure what he's done yet so I'm keeping my opinions to myself in this case.
From H1 report
Financial- During the period, other revenue which relates to Xtracts profit from Fairbride amounted to Β£1.67m β¦β¦β¦.
Just not summarised.
So H1 results, showed no income from Q2, when at AGM, total production @60+kg month, apr, may, june, july was mentioned, and it follows Q3, should also be pretty good, noting cost per oz for Q1, will have been high due to the rain mud etc., it could be a significant difference. Goodness I hope they can quick fire those two, with some other tit bits around and inbetween to restore some positivity here, basis ...
Copper down, gold down, AIM down and debt markets a disaster. Even Japan's debt costs rapidly going up. Guess we are all doomed, the net zero narrative now finished and we are all going to be walking around in sack clothes. But commodities did do well in the 1930's and population growth is parabolic.
VB
Yet again another deliberate mischaracterisation of what I actually said.
You conveniently, again, missed out my main point. AS I clearly stated, at the time, my prediction was based on Q2 income results being as I predicted..
We havnt had Q2 results. And when we do they may or may not be as I thought they would be.
Looking at your snidey comments and posting history, not just on this share, you really are a nasty piece of work.
Filtered
And not a ramper in sight.
Whatever happened to OldManSmell ?
And we're 4.2% down with NO trades this morning.
Even the MM's want out.
I commented on Andrew`s XTR predictions of just 3 weeks ago when he `so knowledgeably` guessed that XTR`s SP would be above 2p within 3 weeks or so. A silly, wild guess then when, actually, he didn`t have a clue. I await his response with his excuses.
When-oh-when will people recognize and accept that XTR is one of Bird`s companies, all of which have an appalling track-record since he took over. Analyzing every last little tit-bit of events to death has invariably lead to opinions that never materialize.
Whilst Andrew`s predictions of 3 weeks ago now, frankly, look ridiculous I don`t suppose that even the most pragmatic, sanguine of followers 3 weeks ago would have expected the SP to be where it is now. But, let me re-emphasize, the man at the helm of XTR is BIRD - who firstly, and unequivocally, should be recognized for his disasterous managerial results.
Seemingly, Bird`s RNS`s work very cleverly in one way - they keep most investors here hooked. But, and it is a very big BUT, should knowledge of the past also be taken into account when predicting (aka dreaming) of the future? I am on the firm opinion that it should! Looking at the wild predictions of just 3 weeks ago, perhaps I may be right!
Not the last post post !
Rog
Coglione
Thought you were 6 feet under
You wrote
Gold going nowhere.
No effing problem cos AISC to XTR max $700 you arsrπ€¬
Flip
Me too got 2mil we do well β€οΈβπ©Ή
Drew
Thought you blocked me mister she knows her numbers
This is my. Last post for personal reasons I would rather not disclose
my name is cruella
She wouldn't do that would she ?
Flabbergasted !
And why wouldnt you flip.
Her calcs, assumptions and analysis seems very robust and logical
It's not as if she typing random words and hoping they may, with a bit of luck, make a coherent sentence :)
I hope Ma isn't taking the Mickey as I have bought millions of shares on her advice .........