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Big trades are mine, say hi to your mother for me.
Oh, just read the rest of your posting history so don't bother replying.
Monkeyman: "expect a big drop in the share price"
Why?
I am cutting and running, expect a big drop in the share price.
I am more or less level on this with the dividends having held this for 1.5 years. Is it worth jumping now? plenty of places 30k could be making money now portfolio made 44% gains last year and this is the turkey in it doing nothing whilst everything else in it is pumping up again this year.
Thanks ToS, genuinely think this one is a toss of the coin.
Good luck to you also Krusty one of our two approaches will ultimately prove to be the correct one!
FWIW ToS1963 I've chosen to hold here in the hope that, eventually, shareholders will see something close to full value from the share NAV. Like you though, I suspect I could be making the wrong decision and that your call to jump ship could be the right one. It's certainly going to be a long, protracted process for those like me who choose to hold, but at least the Board have indicated we'll continue to receive the full dividend for at least another year. Only time will tell on this one, and good luck with your other investments ToS.
I got out yesterday. SP has dropped 20% in a year, and 10% since the wind up was announced. In that time, the communication from the company regarding any timeframe for realising the assets, and distribution to shareholders, has been non existent. That’s nearly 7 months, I’d have expected an update in that time. I hope I’m wrong (probably am) but can make no sense of the price action, and it’s giving me a bad feeling. I was quite happy with this investment when I was receiving regular dividends from what I believed was a solid asset. I fully realise my decision is probably the wrong one, and it would have been better financially to see the wind down through here, so please, don’t follow my lead or think this is advice. I’m just happier with a portfolio I don’t have to pay too much attention to.
Think it is a case of sitting and taking my medicine on this one for now.
Monkeyman99
"Do I sell and invest the money elsewhere now?"
My crystal ball says no.
Basically I invested 30k nearly into this 18 months ago and barely in profit with the dividends included to the tune of £200 up. My portfolio made over 40% 2023 and this turkey is the weak link not making me money so far. They stated return of cash would begin end of 2023 and start of 2024 and I expect a profit on my average share price of 77p. Do I sell and invest the money elsewhere now?
Lol yes, to misquote the late George Best, I spend it on women, booze & cars & if there's any left I'll squander it.
Krusty
Yes it would be silly to give shareholders a return before paying down debt.
Assuming they could pay shareholders before their/our lenders it would result in debt payments rising as income fell. Resulting in an inability to pay dividends.
Of course the lenders wouldn't allow it as there is no doubt a clause based on the LTV.
Anyway I will continue to enjoy the dividends while I wait for a return of capital. I mainly spend it on beer , how about you!!
ToS1963
"There will (hopefully!) come a time when they start paying us back. Which will also be reducing gearing."
Ridiculous statement.
Paying back capital to shareholders does not reduce gearing.
Pay back debt reduce gearing.
Paying back capital before reducing debt increases gearing.
THE LTV INCREASES
SD235, I agree this is going to be a long & drawn-out process. On 29th September they said "it is the Board's current estimate that the first distribution will occur at the end of 2023 or in early 2024 and that distributions will continue thereafter with a substantial proportion of the portfolio being realised within the next three years."
The company also expects to continue paying out existing dividends (2p per qtr) "...for at least a year and potentially longer."
No doubt they will be keen to clear any outstanding debt before starting to make returns to shareholders, as they've previously stated.
I didn't think it was rude ToS1963, just passing comment. I'll take on board your reply though.
Good heavens they’re all out today. So, does gearing ratio calculation include shareholder equity or not? As a shareholder, have you seen a return of any equity? I haven’t (dividends aren’t included) So they’ve presumably been paying down debt, not returning equity, in order to reduce gearing. Which they should say. Just saying we are “reducing gearing” is opaque. There will (hopefully!) come a time when they start paying us back. Which will also be reducing gearing.
Personally I think some people are expecting assets to be divested to quickly.
It's going to be a slow process. Very slow even.
Enjoy the dividends while you wait and don't worry about the share price.
AND not only should you pay down gearing (debt) first they may have no choice. Why would the lender allow you to give out capital which the loan is paying for?!
Tos1963
"No need to be rude Krusty. There’s far too much of that on these boards, let’s try to keep this thread clear of that. What I do, and don’t understand is none of your concern."
Come on, you must know what gearing is?
"Whatever that means"
Really?
Thanks! Let's see what they say...
Thank you for reaching out. The Company will communicate both the timing and amount of the first distribution when it has sufficient certainty on receipt of monies and distribution. The monthly reports the Company publishes are the best place for updates as the wind down progresses.
No need to be rude Krusty. There’s far too much of that on these boards, let’s try to keep this thread clear of that. What I do, and don’t understand is none of your concern.
"Indeed it seems to suggest that some assets have already been disposed of, yet the capital realised was used to “reduce gearing”. Whatever that means."
Are you serious? You can't be invested here (or anywhere for that matter) if you don't understand basic terminology, surely?
Monkey man... I share your concern. Especially given the widening gap between SP and NAV. To that end, I’ve contacted the company as follows. Will post any response.
Can you give me any indication of a timeframe for the return of capital to shareholders? The presentation on the website here is opaque in the extreme.
https://vpcspecialtylending.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/FPE-2023-VPC-Specialty-Lending-Investments-PLC_9.28.23-FINAL.pdf
Indeed it seems to suggest that some assets have already been disposed of, yet the capital realised was used to “reduce gearing”. Whatever that means.
Given the terrible share price in relation to NAV, is there anything you can say which might appease me, a humble shareholder who seems to be in the position of being promised a return on my investment, which doesn’t appear to materialise?
When are this bunch of turkeys going to start dishing the capital out?