Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
To generate an attractive total return for shareholders consisting of dividend income and capital growth through investments in specialty lending opportunities.
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I don't trust these "no brainer" shares. Why aren't people piling in? It suggests the NAV's going to keep falling.
Thanks Agricore,
At the moment, I think it is the lack of commentary from VSL that is depressing the share price. That's easily rectified because all they need to do is update us with "so far $xxx of loans have matured with y% default, we expect a further $xxx to mature in the next 6 months, our plan to return this will be ABC with approval from HMRC etc".
As it stands, we should expect at least the current share price to be returned from matured loans (based on approx. figures of 75% of 83p NAV). On top of that we get the income still due from the loans (8p for 2024, hopefully at least 4p for 2025).
On top of that you get the ~25% of the NAV invested in equity. Unless there have been significant loan defaults (which there have not been in the last few years and nothing to suggest there should be now), the recent falls in the NAV are slanted towards the equity holdings, which makes sense as they would be far more volatile. But there is still quite a lot of value there.
I fear the money boys might be softening up VSL shareholders to think the company is worth less so that the "rump" can be sold off at a bigger discount to close the company down at the end. I'm just naturally suspicious!
I still expect to receive over 80p per share from this point onwards (dividends + capital return from loans + capital return from equity).
Guitarsolo
The Jan report is due any day now and hopefully news on first capital return
Priced for serious problems. A statement of reassurance might help?
If you don’t already read them have a look at the monthly reports on the website, outside of required RNS they will give the latest on capital returns and valuations
Currently waiting on the Tax Office giving clearance for first returns which are due shortly. The January report is also due soon
The NAV is tanking and they give no information what is going in.
A lot of us aleady have
By the time this dodgy lot are done a lot of people are going to lose money on their share price.
Big write down of assets.
Well folks why has the share price tanked today?
Nope, smashed into the dip at 8.40, trailing it with a stop loss now. The cash I had invested in VSL had to be pulled out, to many places it could be making money and redeployed it now. VSL are far to quiet and should had been dishing out some cash by now or at least keeping share holders informed. Also bought pets at home 263p, JD sports 107p and some more SoFi $7.50 and added some more Truelieve.
I'm in GRF too monkey, have you been watching it for long?
Happy to say I sold out all my shares and put it into GRF at 8.40euros for now and already made 20% on the share price. Waiting 5 years is just to long.
Guitarsolo. Thank you for your comments. It seems that if the equity element (23%) failed completely (unlikely) then the sp is more than covered by the asset backed loans. OK the wind up process might take 3-5 years but there should be an instalment fairly soon. meantime the divis keep coming in
Silverknight, I don't believe there is much of a risk of loan defaults. Historically these have been low anyway (first lost protection which is what made VSL so good) and most are in the USA, whose economy is doing pretty well all things considered. The majority of the loans will mature within the first 24 months and be repaid. The problem here, in my view, is the uncertainty around disposing of the non-loan assets, principally equity holdings in non-liquid investments. As Krusty infers, that could take a while to unwind because you have to find the right buyer at the right time and we don't want them given away cheaply.
That's what is infuriating about what those ****holes at Staude Capital did to us.....When VSL was a going concern it could carry those non-loan investments and dispose of them at an opportune time. So their book value didn't matter really until they were sold. But now VSL has to sell them in relatively short order (say within 5 years) they don't get that luxury any more.
If I got my chance to tell Staude what I think of them it would be a fun few minutes.
Krusty. Loans are still assets of the company and if they are short term (and they keep paying the interest crucially) then the process should not be excessively long. We seem to be priced for some defaults . I'm happy to hold as long as the divis keep comng in
What "orderly sale of assets" are you expecting, given that the company makes its money from loans to US and other international businesses? Although the loans are mostly short-term, this is going to be a protracted process with no certainty of outcome for shareholders, hence the sp weakness.
Cant understand the extreme sp weakness. Assuming an orderly sale of assets (even if it takes a year or more) they should realise c80pps. The dividends should also continue (even if reduced) so a return of 30% possible. Am I missing something?
OK well in theory you're right of course, there could be a vote to reverse the original vote. I don't see it happening though, I believe it's much more likely we'll start to see funds returned to shareholders relatively soon, maybe in the next couple of weeks even. Hard to see any way back once that starts to happen, surely, despite you & I (& I'm sure lots of other PI's) wishing it would.
I appreaciate that Krutsy, but why not have another vote on it and re-start the fund before any capital is paid out? Winding it up is obviously disadvantageous for everyone (apart from a shorter). It was a bad decision, so why not reverse it?
Thoroughly agree about the schiesters who wanted to break this up and threw their toys out the pram about not getting their 25% redemption at par etc. They've cost us money and a great income stream.
Apologies for the typo in the Subject Title.... I hate that we can't edit/correct.
It's already been voted on Gs so there's no going back now. A bunch of greedy fund managers decided they wanted to cover some of their losses elsewhere by splitting this up & banking the NAV. It's backfired spectacularly on them though. Why they couldn't just take the 10% dividend on offer & keep quiet I don't understand I'm afraid. It's a rotten outcome for everyone, particularly income seekers looking to supplement their pensions.
That VPC could be encouraged to reverse the decision to wind up the fund?
VSL successfully generated an 8p dividend, basically always covered. When they decided to wind the company up the share price was c.80 (10% yield, perfectly acceptable). The reason to wind it up was a persistent discount to NAV, but the decision to wind it up has caused an even greater discount to NAV!
There has not yet been a return of capital (even if some assets have matured/ been sold). So it is all still there and can be deployed to do exactly what it did before.
Just asking!
Was in RGL, averaged in at 28p and sold that one out at 33p. VSL I was averaged in at 74p a share and with the dividends was just flat and the money can be making money elsewhere. They seem dodgy to me and the next thing will be the dividend stopped and the NAV shrinking and years to wind it down 30k can be making money elsewhere better.
Only wish she was still with us monkey.
I notice that, like me, you're in RGL. I thought this was your only turkey?