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Hi, earache - I took a more critical view on the results and conference call than you, and after a thorough reassessment, am now out until September - basically weak management, carrying gross BoD deadweight and employee largesse, no serious attempt to cut G&A, falling revenue, inadequate attempt to increase production, dislike acquisition strategy as not confident they will not overpay (imo SG is no Andrew Austin or Paul Blakeley), and in no hurry to get a partner.
I'm here for the cash, and the farm-out partner, then 20tcf Deep exploration. But now more concerned that a fitter, sharper, lot will take us out with a low ball offer before we get a partnership.
I'll probably buy back after the Q2 results when, hopefully, these matters will have been better addressed and we can then see the wood from the trees.
Good Luck.
In case you missed it:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4346830-valeura-energy-inc-pnwrf-ceo-sean-guest-on-q1-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript
(For anyone new looking in - hee hee):
Solid result, but was all signalled by the production update of April 14th, which should be read in conjunction with today's RNS.
Cash $32.6m = £26.4m / 86.58m shares = 30.5p a share.
Conference call today at 4pm.
Ticking over nicely whilst we await the partner for the Deep play.
Solid £15k buy yesterday (I topped up too, but out of my league). Stupid 11% spread this morning but should narrow throughout the day; expecting this to push up a little as the Cannuck market opens and conf call, then in London tomorrow and over week - as ever, fingers crossed.)
GLA
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkish-petroleum-discovers-200-mcm-of-gas-in-turkeys-thrace
(March 2020 - a little to the north and east of us.)
Ferguson is an idiot, with a history of overstatement and failed predictions. A menace. I cannot forgive him for the foot and mouth slaughter in 2001. How he retained his position after that is anyone's guess. I understand they gave him an OBE for his efforts. So that's the Establishment for you.
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-13299666
Regards Turkey article: very confusing. Not much help here. All seems to be about crude product (LNG and LPG) coming in, being refined into other products, and mostly sent out again - none of which I would guess is gas production from Turkish wells - but just comingled hub trade.
Perhaps 'more beer' is the preferable solution to such confusing articles.
Cheers.
Morning, Earache.
Encountered similar, yesterday. A normally pleasant girl at local chemist's has turned into a right harridan - clearly all this health-service worship gone to her head. Everyone who has an opportunity to push someone around has come out of the woodwork and are enjoying themselves thoroughly - just like the prefects of schooldays (I refused to be one, and still the rebel many years on).
Coincidentally, I was looking at the Gazprom pipeline the other day:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Gazprom-Moves-Forward-With-New-Mega-Pipeline.html
Possibly the power sector economy in Turkey has not taken too much of a dive?
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkeys-electricity-market-trade-volume-up-in-april
https://www.dailysabah.com/business/energy/turkey-discovers-new-method-to-explore-hydrocarbons
Extract:
"Hydrocarbon areas in Turkey are dissimilar to those around the world in many aspects and therefore, we need a new method to study them. Through this new method, we started studies to survey and take natural groundwater samples from identified areas according to their paleogeography, geological and tectonic characteristics," he explained....
Geologist Adil Özdemir also stressed the cost effectiveness of this new method compared to conventional methods, which is set to decrease exploration costs by at least 50% while ensuring 100% reliability.
https://aawsat.com/english/home/article/2267311/erdogan-begins-ease-turkeys-coronavirus-restrictions
Couldn't agree more:
https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/
Note the rapid drop in active cases in Sweden yesterday from 18633 to 15878 - with a limited, smarter, lockdown policy.
I have other investments that are not for the VLU chat, I do not post under any other account/names
I am new to investing in VLU. After reading the facts VLU seems a very good buy at these levels cant go wrong.
Cheers
Enviable financial position, with no debt and approximately $36 million of cash at year-end 2019. Revenue producing stock with a current MCAP below cash value.
30p In Cash V 20p SP.
What’s not to like :-)
Active cases now in decline in Turkey:
23rd - 80808
24th - 80575
25th - 79485
26th - 78185
27th - 75570
28th - 72857
Wake up to this gem !!!
Hi, earache - yes, scratching around today whilst waiting for all my oil shares to rise (and when will that be?).
My guess why Turkish Petroleum might want to be involved in this project is:
a) they are very familiar with this asset (past involvement, as with Amity);
b) they want this asset developed asap, so don't want to wait on VLU finding a partner (and won't have to then approve that partner);
c) money from direct ownership/income of this asset should be a higher percentage than tax take;
d) similarly, helps their balance of payments by domestic production, rather than relying on imported energy;
e) in theory, helps local job prospects, and is a way to strengthen economy in these troubled times - thus Wealth Fund involvement.
But who knows?
Out to enjoy the sunshine, now (ignore the Plod).
GLA.
And on Turkish Wealth Fund (100% of shares of Turkish Petroleum):
http://turkiyevarlikfonu.com.tr/EN/Portfoy/5
More background information on Amity example:
https://balkaneu.com/turkey-goes-to-town-on-energy-in-east-thrace/
And another possibility?
http://www.socar.com.tr/en/about-us/socar-global
http://www.socar.com.tr/en/about-us/socar-globalhttp://www.socar.com.tr/en/about-us/socar-turkey
Perhaps we could look closer to home?
https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/new-help-for-virus-hit-firms-from-turkey-wealth-fund-153951
Partnership with Turkish Petroleum?
http://www.tp.gov.tr/eng/?tp=m&id=16
for example: TP – AMITY OIL agreement. In the context of Joint Operation Agreement between TP and Amity oil for Thrace Basin; condensate and natural gas production from D.Yenibag-1, Göçerler, Adatepe, D. Adatepe, Reisdere, Eskitasli, Dikilitas, Pasaköy, Kumdere, Yenibag and Pelit fields have continued and exploration studies in exploration licenses.
> TS. Welcome aboard the bb. Invested yet or still looking?
Thanks earache, I'll have a read of your links and the investor prospectus in a bit.
I've bought in (Friday, then more yesterday after reading some over the weekend) but don't read too much into that as I'm more of a chancer than a wise investor.
Seems VLU is in a good position all round - good industry for the coming months (not travel, tourism, etc), not volatile like trying to pick the right pharma company, far from the Syrian border, they don't seem to need thousands of employees to keep producing; even if they spend the cash on a drill which turns up dust what remains after would still be cash generating, large gas reserve and reasonable price at sub-20p. (But why did this guy https://twitter.com/fantasticsofa/status/1245781548936429574 think it's not profitable?).
I like it more from risk/reward/position than something like Eddie Stobart or the small gold explorers, and bought some.
Would be nice to know why Equinor pulled out, why it dropped so sharply from 150p to 77p then to 35p and people here said it was a bargain and should go up and then it halved again to 15p (haven't seen anyone who was predicting that would happen). Without understanding, I worry it will mysteriously halve again to 8p.
> Dual listing can give rise to arbitrage but I've not spotted any yet.
Haha, interesting but shouldn't have surprised me.
> Any twitter links I should look at?
Nothing you won't have seen before surely, I just search #vlu latest first, and read back the past couple of months https://twitter.com/search?q=%23vlu&f=live (skipping over the leg ulcer ones!).
This is the crazy part - your not missing anything just unknown so volumes low a number of PIs taking positions and topping up but should be a minimum of 31.5p fair value in cash in bank, not including asserts and revenue which was up 9% Q1, production not effected by C-19 and looking for a JV partner for one of its 100% owned assets.
Major pipe line was approx 94% completed in February so should be there or there about. There is a lot of info within a few pages and numerous links GLA
Why is this not attracting the herd ? Sp below cash and profitable....what am I missing ?
https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/LON/VLU [1] says "According to analysts' consensus price target of GBX 570, Valeura Energy has a potential upside of 2,900.0% from its current price of GBX 19". They are the same pool of shares when traded on multiple exchanges, and should generally settle on the same company value after curency conversion, is that right? (It's not two separate chunks of the company trading independently?)
> Problem with VLU is it’s off the radar
It's getting on Twitter's boomrocket radar, which is where I heard of it; earache's hopes of the herd staying away possibly doesn't have long left.
[1] (MarketBeat /LON/VLU instead of /TSE/VLE in case the link is removed)
Well if you have ever done a handover you will know how the client like to categories punches, getting there slowly but surely, the days are getting longer as more and more need to be done to reach the go no go, need gas in which is required for final MC of some of the associated packages and it’s getting hot out here.
Problem with VLU is it’s off the radar, look at some of the dogs today in the paper over the weekend if you are quick enough to get in and put you do ok if you don’t you get spiked.
Then you have VLU guarantied fair value of nearly double current MC so a easy bag. Then 9% up last quarter and possible JV partner and major pipe line opening.
Will we appear in the share section?
Doesn’t help LSE are failing to publish RNS when they are issued........
I am all good thanks, just looking forward to get home, been on camp since December 28th, getting tiring now.