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https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/03/russia-saudi-oil-war-coronavirus.html
These articles put this 'panic' in perspective - well worth a read:
https://facts4eu.org/news/2020_mar_corona_spring
https://facts4eu.org/news/2020_mar_corona_italy
Picked this up on another site:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/saudi-arabia-urges-g20-virtual-talk-coronavirus-shuts-mosques-200318031540587.html
'...The extraordinary virtual leaders' summit next week will "put forward a coordinated set of policies to protect people and safeguard the global economy"....'
The members of the G20 are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union.
Guess most will have something to say about the oil price - expect the Ruskies to feel the heat.
Someone agrees:
https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/countingthecost/2020/03/saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-russia-200315114308947.html
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Looks-To-Play-Mediator-Between-OPEC-And-Russia.html
Is this really what lies behind the Price War?
Putin, by damaging US shale, is retaliating against the US sanctions placed on Russian companies that have supported the Maduro regime, and perhaps with the larger objective of getting the US to lift or ease sanctions on the Maduro regime?
If so, imo expect no early solution to this crisis.
With good results and a firm footing for the rest of 2020 have no SP movement. The pumping squad pump rubbish and it moves like a rocket. Go figure
'Valeura remains in a strong financial position, and we intend to keep it that way.'
Cash US$ 36.1m
Exchange rate 0.79
= £28.52m
86.58m shares in issue
= net cash per share of 33p
No debt. Stable gas price. Cashflow positive.
Today you can buy for 15p!
Like this ones are the ones you want to be buying. Exploration companies and those with no cash you can leave for later in the year once prices recover. Well done VLU on top results
Cash would be king and looks like it has plenty of it.Current environment is really grim for oilies but those who have cash would survive and this company stand out.
Volte-face by end of today?
First Squawk
@FirstSquawk
·
2h
RUSSIAN OIL MINISTER: OIL MARKET SITUATION IS UNSTABLE DUE TO THE SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS
First Squawk
@FirstSquawk
·
54m
RUSSIA'S ENERGY MINISTRY HAS CALLED A MEETING WITH RUSSIAN OIL COMPANIES FOR WEDNESDAY || RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTRY TO DISCUSS FUTURE COOPERATION WITH OPEC AT WEDNESDAY'S MEETING
worthwhile article:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4330764-oil-saudi-price-war-scenarios
Thanks for putting the other side of the argument.
Lets hope one of them backs down soon.
I read a post this morning (on lse/advfn?) that there was an OPEC technical meeting for 18th March. - maybe that will sort it? (perhaps a production cut of 1m barrels without Russia?)
Five years of austerity and safeguarding assets against the threat of U.S. sanctions have left Russia in a stronger position than ever before to cope with lower oil prices. Putin’s plans to increase spending this year can go ahead regardless and a weaker ruble will only help the country’s commodity exporters, which sell their goods in dollars.
International sanctions forced Russia to strip back foreign borrowing in recent years, while stringent fiscal policies pared domestic spending to a minimum. The result is that Russia now boasts the fourth-biggest international reserves in the world, and some of the lowest debt levels. Putin’s new government still has plenty of room to start increasing spending this year even if oil prices drop closer toward $40 a barrel.
Compared to other oil-exporting nations, Russia is in very good shape to cope with lower prices. Saudi Arabia, for instance, balances its budget at oil prices roughly double the level that Russia can cope with.
Russia’s finance ministry said that the country’s oil-wealth reserves would be sufficient to cover lost revenue “for six to 10 years” at oil prices of $25 to $30 a barrel.
I expect Saudi may blink first on the back of US pressure
14.5p to buy in Canada.
Cash 33p. No debt. Gas production.
Madness
Interesting analysis and discussion on advfn PTAL:
from pro (thanks):
Only Saudi wins in oil.....they can bring on 2M bopd instantly.........Russia can only increase around 300K. So if Saudi undercut any Russian price and ramp up......Russia sells minimal oil, Russia collapses. Remember, Russia agreed to extending existing cuts to year end, but would not increase further saying they were happy with 45$. Now they are faced with 30$ and selling around 2M bopd less than before - thats massive on their budget - Rouble collapse scenario. All they have to do is agree to cut a bit more........nothing else - now they face chaos...... 3 weeks to go to make an agreement. I expect the Rouble to start a massive sell off now. Already now 73 Roubles to 1 Dollar and climbing - thats fast approaching a 5 year low for the Rouble.
https://www.ft.com/content/804d6c82-61aa-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68
Virus: Active cases 43913 (China 18942)
Likely to take a hit from oil price today?
latest figures: active cases 39391 (China 23731)
[2nd March: active cases 40863 (China32577)]
Note rapid decline in China.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Deal-Or-No-Deal-OPEC-Proposes-15-Million-Bpd-Output-Cut.html
Fingers crossed for tomorrow.
Earache, thumbs up for your contribution to the Facts4EU website today (and yes, kzb is a regular pain in the posterior).
From one of my favourite websites:
https://facts4eu.org/news/2020_mar_coronavirus
'... we felt we had to put out a public service article stating the bald facts. We are not doctors nor epidemiologists. We do, however, have a lot of experience in observing how quangos in the EU and around the world have started to act as if they can define the news agenda, rather than simply providing facts on it. We constantly observe these organisations growing and spreading their influence as much as they can. More funding usually follows....'
From website - March 13th (not 12th, as in RNS of Jan 15th)
Worth a flutter at these levels, problem is that it is very illiquid stock and a low volume is needed to move it either way.I thought it hit the bottom at 30 and now its trading at 20.05. It is not really popular among pis but fundamentals are really strong.
29mil in cash
646 boed equivalent a day
Cash flow positive at this rate
Receives premium on Natural Gas
Owns infrastructure sells direct to customer
High reserves
1000 miles from Syria border
Equinor exit (is these a cost due to Valeura)
Share price at an all time low
Directors purchasing
Results due on 12 March