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Interested in other thoughts here: -
The peer group average mcap for a Biotech with this number of projects is in the region of £ 52.1m according to S P Angel.
Now I appreciate this is the AIM and let’s face it can be a casino at times with traders moving in and out for small gains, but I know some of the recent buys have 100% gone into sticky hands.
My own for example is here for at least the next two years and several contacts I have mentioned the stock to have similar outlook. Of course, that still wont stop anyone short-term selling but it “feels” like the shareholder demographic may have moved further towards Investors rather than traders.
Anyhow, back to the peer group average. My thoughts are that Valirx is ABOVE average, they have TWO possibly three projects close to licencing. IF they can secure those license deals this moves up a gear BUT, in the meantime, now its being recognised more should move towards that Average? Would you agree?
At £ 52m that’s an SP closer to 80p so this makes me think that the natural trading range for this stock should be at the 70-80p region trading band level all day long not down at this price?
Once licensing deals drop it should then move up again to the next level above that.
Its difficult to predict when the Value is this low, but these are my thoughts, lets see how the next few weeks go and hopefully it will start to rerate properly as interest builds.
Good luck all, lets see what next week brings
Pork’s
Hi porky
Thanks for your fabulous posts
You grace and yourself are top dogs
How much do you think the upfront payment will be for 201 ?
Hi @Viera
You are very kind
I can’t know for sure what a licence deal would look like as I can only go off my own notes. It’s a question I have put forward for the investor presentation Q & A so hopefully we should have further accurate information shortly.
In the meantime, these are my own thoughts from research so may not be entirely correct but illustrates the general direction: -
Normally a deal is constructed in two parts: an upfront payment and an ongoing royalty fee. These deals can prove to be significant. There is no set metric i can see as such but i would assume consideration needs to be given to the market size, the value of that market, the impact of the drug, the competition and it’s a negotiated arrangement.
If we take the recent Evaluation agreement project which is in Breast Cancer, there were something like 75 deals done in this field during 2020. We have seen more licence deals for blood and Breast Cancer which are quicker to license than for harder to treat cancers relating to the brain, oesophageal, bladder or the womb which typically take much longer. There was only one for liver cancer as such we could maybe assume that a license deal Is higher in higher demand less competition fields? but as I say this is not my area of experience, but you would think bench marking against other deals completed must go on?
VAL 201 for Prostate Cancer for example, we might be able to compare with a deal that Lantern secured with Allarity. In this one they secured $1m Initial, $1m at 24 mths and $16m on commercialization so total value $18m (£13m)
https://ir.lanternpharma.com/news/press-releases/detail/54/lantern-pharma-reacquires-rights-to-phase-2-clinical-trial
VAL 401 for Pancreatic Cancer for example, we might be able to compare with a deal that XOMA secured with Novartis. In this one they secured $25m (£18m)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xoma-earns-25-million-milestone-113000865.html
It might be a bit crude doing a benchmark in this way as EVERY deal is different but most deals, I was looking at on the internet were like north of $30m (£22m).
Look at some of the license deals in Oncology, some are significant sizes: -
https://www.nature.com/articles/d43747-021-00024-y
But as I say I might be way off here. We should wait to hear what the company has to say at the presentation. Either way, just one deal would transform the business from here. We are of so materially low value even after todays rise its ridiculous.
Upside potential in the Share Price from here is enormous. Multibagger stuff imo, I see no reason why Valirx cant be valued north of £80m - £ 1.20 SP with one licence deal secured. Time will tell
GLA
Pork's
Porky, ramper or not, you are the reason i am still in Val and now optimistic on making a return in my 5k invested at avg 51p. I know this sounds small.but with a small family and my situation this is material and big for me. I just want to say thank you to you.
@Rahel
I genuinely wish you good fortune with this.
I have been investing in stocks for a good while now and sometimes there is often no logic irrespective of how much research you do, how much you review the fundamentals as to why a stock is held down at one level or another. Often, investors have just fallen out of love with them :) Investor sentiment plays a big part for sure especially with AIM stocks. Positivity is Important imo.
I have an obvious vested Interest in the business doing well over the next few years. We are all small retail investors here at the end of the day, at one level or another, grubbing along trying to make a return. If i can inject some positivity along that Investment journey, i will try to do so. GL.
Take Care
Pork's
Hi Rahel - my investment is about the same as yours (due to being a 70 year old with limited funds) and my average is lower but this is more down to good luck and i have stuck with it - lets hope we both come out of this with a decent profit - sometimes good things happen but this is the AIM.
It was stated last year in December by Kevin that Valrix will pick the partner and that they were in negotiations with lots of parties. SInce then they have done lots of work with Physiomics to further improve the value of Val 201 and other drugs. I fully expect that Val has had numerous offers for 201 therefore I expect a decent deal with upfront payment at least 5-10M with very large milestone payments.
Suzy and Kevin have always seemed confident in all the meetings and recently again stated they do not expect a placing. We have cash until early next year and now we are at the end of September. I suspect we are days away from a deal.
Fair price is hard to know but according to peers I think before a deal fair price should be about 60p with the assets we have. Given that a deal is just about to happen I can see this hit the highs of 74p In the coming weeks before a deal. After a deal and when it arrives hopefully we should break the £1 mark and move forward with plenty of other news due such as possible deals for 301 and 401 and updates regarding the work Physiomics have been doing.
30p Is very cheap with what is about happen. I would be buying lots more but I have a low average and enough but upside is massive. DYOR as always.
We’ve all been here when a few traders could manipulate VAL one way or another, I for one think once we’ve shaken off the stigma of the old guard (which until the deals in is still upon us) Val will be taken very seriously indeed by the big boys.
You won’t be getting 100000 trades bouncing all around once the sp’s way over a £1 or more.
Thought last night I wonder what sp we will be 12 months from now and I hadn’t got a clue but it won’t be 30p so I won’t lose anything from here on in hopefully.
@hasiba
Thanks for the confirmation, the data i pulled off the internet during research might be slightly off, but it now looks like only 28m is free float AND moreover the Institutions whilst some exchanges have occurred on balance the they have increased their holdings hence, the position is getting stronger:-
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1439539171669037056
Also, we all know that Directors were buying in positions back in February. OK it's at 23.5p BUT its in Sticky hands that's the difference. IF they have confidence in their own business then we certainly should!!!!
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1439542143731867649/photo/1
@Rightback
With you all the way
What i specifically like is that it just feels like stocks moving to LTH not short term traders. We offloaded loads of shareholders at 25p, this is fantastic because if they are back in they are buying at higher levels.
In my mind without question this will be 40p-50p by Friday... am i being rampy... maybe...don't really care, I'm just ultra ultra confident... It won't take much buying pressure at all imo.
@PM2022
I genuinely think you have called this right - £ 1+ on confirmed licensing deal minimum. That would only give us a £65m mcap..... so mega upside from there imo...
A licensing deal would be Transformative, it would shore up finances, allow them to take on more project lines and not to mention.. aha... get Suzy a decent pay rise!!. I know they are being careful with cash, understandable and that's a great thing but she is doing an amazing job compared to the last lot.... and clearly doing it for the love of it, to make a difference, needs better rewarding, that should come.
From our side as i see it, if you are buying a stock it should be because you are confident in its future otherwise, no point in buying and if confidence is lost, you should always sell and move on. So i totally get that if you like a company you are going to shout about it, why shouldn't you?
I back your position 100%, appreciate the research you have done as you are one of the posters that led me here! and lets face it there has been some right bloody negative posters here in the past, that is changing now, you are in good company, great work :)
GLA, Take Care, always DYOR
Pork's
Guys,
Nichols Slater has just corrected me on twitter, my posted Director holdings data was incorrect.
https://twitter.com/patviera
The company have pointed it out, i mean how good is that1!!!
Even on a Sunday they take the time out to address shareholder comments...
Correct Director Holdings position is Officially stated one the website here:-
https://www.valirx.com/aim-rule-26
Snap shot of the data on my twitter feed here:-
https://twitter.com/Porky9Here/status/1439555633603399682/photo/1
What a business....
Top lad Porky. Glad you have joined us.
I believe VAL 201 will get to market as it is such a safe drug. Then this will be many pounds. Both short term and long it is a fantastic investment with limited downside.
Hoping for a great week ahead and let us attack 50p this week.
I Concur with everything you said in that last post Pm 2022.Let the true re-rate based on the known Science and impending licence deal/deals continue over the coming week.Good luck to all genuinely invested here-it’s going to be v interesting and emotional imvho lol.
Hi again,
You will be relieved that I’m off Carp fishing tomorrow so you will get some peace from me…. LOL
I just wanted to raise the BEAR argument that I have encountered from one of the previous shareholders no longer invested and to just clarify why I’m backing this Biotech. The argument was along the lines of why I was bothering to invest here when, to quote: -
“Val, had nothing, has nothing & is way overdue on timeline promises, they just appointed another broker with a seriously over generous offer & they have Little cash in coffers so Why invest there”
Well, I’m not ignorant to risk, I have well researched this company and other Biotech’s, it’s a fledgling biotech business hence, the AIM market and not the FTSE and I consider it ABOVE average in this sector.
Don’t get me wrong, I would be mighty miffed if I had brought shares at the back end of 2016 at £ 11 and now, they were worth 30 pence. Likewise, many shareholders averaging around the 55p to 70p need the SP to more than double just to get back to square one again. I get that.
But investment in Biotech’s on the AIM takes time. If you want a sure thing, go and back GSK or some other Major. To invest in an AIM stock, you must be prepared to give it time to mature. On average it can take north of 7 years from concept to market to complete phases.
Now, the previous management team made a royal hash of running this business, raise after raise, wasting cash like a man with no arms, but that is now resigned to history. Its in the past, they can’t change that but its now a totally different business doing things differently with a different team.
From an investment perspective from today: -
a) Is the management team solid with clear focus, hell yes.
b) Have they got any projects near licensing that could eliminate the chance of another cash call, hell yes, potentially 3.
c) Have they enough funds to meet the current objectives, hell yes: by end of Q1 end of March 22 they would need to raise more money IF no licence deal secured – That is our risk here. But they have indicated they are working to get a deal over the line, hence, should be avoidable.
d) Always late on timelines, well that’s historic, we have just gone through a major pandemic, the new management team have outlined their plans and a full presentation will be issued shortly. I repeat this is a different business to what it was.
e) Another broker appointed at a significant fee, well yes, can’t argue. Its a tidy fee but unless the SP rises, they earn nothing. If the SP rallied to £ 1.22 after a deal they could earn as much as £4m next year. Well frankly, if that happens, they are worth EVERY penny and nobody, but nobody here will be complaining I can tell you!
So, in closure, why am I invested here; well, if I didn’t think I could make a good Return at this level I wouldn’t bother. I’m joining the party later in the day after much of the hard work and restructure has been completed. But what
Cont..
So, in closure, why am I invested here; well, if I didn’t think I could make a good Return at this level I wouldn’t bother. I’m joining the party later in the day after much of the hard work and restructure has been completed. But what a company it is now and what a fantastic CEO they have running it and I have every confidence she will turn this company around and is doing so.
Its all upwards from here as far as I’m concerned.
GLA and DYOR
Pork's
PS - I have shut up now :)
Evening all,
Porky, tight lines fella, personally I prefer rivers over muddy puddles, lol
I bet you a pint that you have to look at the SP at some point tomorrow?
No peeking….. you up for it?
Atb
OB
Great post yesterday Porky.
In response to your comments about the new evaluation agreement, my interest has been piqued. The evaluation agreement and the subsequent discarding of the KTH222 compound last year did nothing for me, which is why I have never commented on it (apologies Suzy, I understand how easy it is for any pleb to comment retrospectively on a message board). A pancreatic cancer drug that is designed to be used in conjunction with chemotherapy to prolong life, that operates along a pathway that could benefit treatment of other cancers, such as, in this, case ovarian cancer. At the end of the day, it’s now money that has been spent that came to nothing; along with the accompanying shares. This idea of finding and collaborating to develop new drug candidates is a delicate one, as with each one that ends up being a flop, more cash is burned through. Suzy needs to pick wisely for this strategy and needs to hit on something that is worth putting the effort into. I may have read somewhere that the rate of preclinical making it to clinical stages in neoplasms is roughly 30% (it’s around 50% elsewhere, but this is oncology), although I’m sure that Adam will correct me if I’m wrong. For the sake of transparency and just for the record, I’m sorry but I’m not a huge fan of 401 either. Readers at this point may now be wondering why i seem to be on a mission to offend everyone today ( I do particularly like 201 and everything that can be done with it though, such as 301 and other possibilities and do believe a deal is imminent). Therefore I would like to point out that I also particularly like this new route for ValiRx as a general strategy. Preclinical testing is relatively cheap, less time consuming and with the expertise of the team, a sensible way to acquire new drugs for the pipeline, to develop, in my view. A great way to evaluate new candidates.
Now, to the new evaluation agreement. I would desperately love to know some kind of detail about this candidate. I may have mentioned in the past that my own cancer was triple negative breast and consequently tend to keep a keen eye out for any treatments in the pipeline and updates in this particular area. Breast cancers are the most common cancer and almost a fifth of those are triple negative. So big business…Suzy is definitely not messing about with this one!
I will continue on another page…
Oooh I love a good grace post:)
RB…. Don’t!
Triple negative are the most difficult type of breast cancers to treat. They have the highest rate of recurrence, are the most aggressive (almost always being grade 3) and disproportionately affect young people. They are not driven by hormones that other cancers are driven by, such as oestrogen and progesterone, hence the name triple negative, which refers to the three main hormone areas that usually drive breast cancers. Therefore, they are particularly difficult to treat, as usually women can be given drugs such as tamoxifen or Herceptin to block the pathways of these female hormones, to help stop the cancer dividing, but these drugs are of no use here. These cancers are also basal-like, so they don’t behave like other breast cancers, are less predictable and more difficult to find their cause and how they operate. It is a very hot area for research at the moment, as the prize is huge. As porky mentioned there are lots of new candidates and treatments for breast cancers on the whole, it is a well funded area as it affects so many people and on the whole the chances of survival are very good. This is not the case for triple negative, however. Just to put it into perspective, the prognosis for survival is poorer than all of the other types of breast cancer (my own individual projection was 55-60% chance of survival), due to the fact that triple negative tend to behave very differently from each other even, so it’s not simple to find one cause or one pathway that will stop it.
So, after the background information, on to treatment. The options are few. It’s basically an operation (mastectomy), followed by chemotherapy then radiotherapy. Then after that, nothing. Due to the aggressive nature of the cells, there is a high chance of recurrence and currently no real option past these treatments to stop it. You cross your fingers and wait for three years. Keytruda can be used in conjunction with the chemotherapy and there is also the PARP inhibitor olaparib, which we have all heard about, for BRCA1 mutated versions, so a very limited proportion of cases can be helped by this. That’s mainly it, unless it then spreads and there are a couple of things to help prolong life a little. The areas that are being looked into currently, are focused or repurposing existing drugs along a couple of different known pathways to try and target possibly 20% of all triple negative tumours (I can provide details of these for reference if anybody is interested). It’s so difficult to find a pathway, as mentioned earlier that is common to all triple negative cancers, hence it being such a hot area of research at the moment by a lot of the big pharmas. A drug was given FDA approval (Tecentriq, by Roche, I believe) and actually pulled from the market less than a month ago, as it actually adversely affected survival upon further testing.
The bottom line is that I have yet to hear about a NEW drug to treat this, until reading the RNS last week.
It states it is a ‘novel technology’ for this evaluation agreement, so therefore I will be watching with interest.
Just as a disclaimer, I’m not as emotionally involved as my post may have suggested. The background was given purely for the purpose of making my point to give a big picture and it was ten years ago now.
Well maybe a little emotionally involved, but here I am an investor first, so we will have to see if this one pans out or not, as we all know the nature of pharma. Apologies for boring everyone again.
Oh and hi OB,I hope you are well :)
Sharegnomie, I agree with Adam, sorry.
Grace
Never bored my dear, I am really good thank you :)
I hope you are on top of the world?
I’m just hoping the £2.36 party is not to far away?
Atb
OB
Grace ,
Glad to see your back posting with us , How's the dog ?
there are a couple of shares I think you need to have a look at, One I'm pretty sure is a no brainer and another I would like your opinion on as its a Pharma.
The first is Deltic a natural gas explorer they have a exploration contracts with some big companies due to start soon an11m in cash and running cost of about 1/2 m, anyway have a look at it I think it good company some estimates an 5x currant share price in 12 to 18 months and I think fair evaluation atm but DYOR.
Second , is a company about to launch called SpectrumX on LSE its a pharma with a product called SPZ069. Could you have a look and give me your opinion on their product. Looks interesting as a possible investment. Due to float very soon/
Regards
SG
Flying back to Blighty tomorrow and I've just read a marvellous missive from Grace - one of the main reasons I'm invested here.
Hopefully she'll continue posting her analysis.
Great to hear that you are well OB! Has that ankle completely healed now? I think we are all hoping for the £2.36 party to be soon ;) will you still be wearing your IAR shirt, or will it have changed to bluecity? Great spot there. Funny that the conversation turned to fishing today, as I am a fishing widow for this weekend and the next few days. So tight lines indeed. I’m betting on porky not being able to resist a little peek too…
Sharegnomie, the dog caught and swallowed whole, a field vole last week. Then threw it up still whole, ten minutes later with his breakfast on my bedroom floor. I think he is broken, as he now has an obsession for them! Animals eh…
Thanks for the tip with the gas company, I shall have a look. As with Adam’s comment, I’m reluctant to give any advice, especially since we spiked here before, so I try and keep it to facts for people to be well informed about their choices. Also, DMTR have dropped since I invested, which was the last company in pharma that I have put any money into. Typical! So may not be the best person to ask. Saying that, I really like SpectrumX’s hand sanitizer and that’s a massive plus for them. They aren’t completely clear about their technology for the inhalation, as If it’s basically a disinfectant that kills on contact (which is how they are describing it) then I presume it doesn’t penetrate the cells and wonder how it would get to viruses that have already penetrated the cells? So how can It be effective at treating viruses or bacteria that have made it into the blood? They are also late to the party, as SNG are so much further along, but you never know as SNG could still fail at the last hurdle. Works in a completely different way though, as you would need to sit with an inhaler and keep inhaling at regular intervals to catch any cells on the surface of the respiratory system, whereas SNG001 primes the body to mount a better immune response. Tough one, as their hand sanitiser appears to be a cracker, whilst this other product is very green at the moment. Have you signed up for the ipo yet?
Happy birthday for tomorrow rightback and we are all expecting you to wear your new lucky pants :)
Thanks Grace
I’ve made a promised myself IF Val comes good to do a Michael Jordan and don a brand new pair of dark blue undies every day for the rest of my days. Simple things eh.