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Surprised we didn’t break the 3p this morning. With figures from el Salmiya this should be multiples from here. An exceptionally low 6.5 dollars cost. Should be multi bagging from here. No brainier. Looking at the chart the 3p is the one we need to break through.
shake down, company with potential of 4k bopd has 15m mcap, currently producing c2k bopd, do we know of any company who will be producing 2.5k bopd within the coming weeks with a mcap this low with a fair portion pre sold at $60 a barrel.
I just topped up two different tranches both not showing another 400,000 K :-)
I bought another 264k shares this morning too. Albeit at 2.8p. I really do believe it’s undervalued. I’ve worked out an income of circa £29 million a year. Bearing in mind gents on here are talking about bp hedged at 60 dollars (but that is only for 6600 barrels per month.)The sp should be multiples from here. Think I stumbled on a good one.
This year's accounts showed revenues of NIL. SP 6 months ago - 3.5p
Next year's could well be showing revenues of £12M. SP now - 2.7p
Nuff said.
GingerHippo I get what you are saying but 6months ago there was 273m less shares in issue so not a great comparison.
It is undervalued but we also have to take in to account the Egypt effect where there seems to be some discount like at SDX.
Levi, when was another 273M shares issued?
I know the markets as a whole are not booming but this is dropping a fair bit now! Damn it!
Gave up reading the board yesterday as it was full of dross, misinformation, fantasy calculations and unicorn hunters.
Reading this morning, some semblance of sanity has been restored as traders have moved on to the next 'bestest share in the whole world ever' , so i'll post in the hope it doesn't disappear in a cloud of spam.
What a number of people - mostly new posters - aren't understanding are the costs and deductions in addition to the $6.50 cash costs per barrel. You have to factor in the production sharing contract (PSC) where >50% of Gross revenue is deducted and goes to the Egyptian State via EGPC and $2-$3m pa of depreciation, local office costs and loan interest. Until you understand that, you will posting 'we should be multibags of this value' for the rest of the year until you are blue in the face.
Stop relying on this board and twitter for your [cough] 'research'. Logoff from here, do some reading, understand UOG Egypt and you'll arrive at a realistic P&L and cashflow for which to base some sensible expectation of a mcap
Gingerhippo - the additional shares were from the placing in Feb for the acquisition
I agree with you badger but also at the same time it after all that is calculated. UOG are making revenue of $10m+ a year and profit at that. The current valuation after all you've discussed is still north of current SP. I will agree it shouldn't be 1000% or something daft but anything under 3p is a silly value for a company making 2500bopd imo
Thank you Badger. That was helpful.
2500 boepd @ $60 per barrel with $6.5 costs = $133,750 per day
After EGPC takes 57% that's $57,513
For UOG thats $12,653 per day
$4.6M PA
About £3.5M PA Gross profit.
Admin expenses circa £2M.
Net profit £1.5M PA
Fair mcap should then be approx £22.5M on this basis alone. Currently £9M.
Yesterday's RNS implies that boepd will increase to 8700. That would make gross profit £12M PA, net profit circa £10M. SO all I see is decent downside but impressive upside.
This doesn't even touch the revenues from Italy.
And I'm leaving out Jamaica too due to uncertainty.
Bradleybear - V true and not disputing the SP should be north of where we are. At $35pb they make a decent profit and cash to pay off the loan instalments, El-Samiya drill costs etc and have a good chunk left over for the 2021 drill programme. Looking way healthier than it was looking a couple of months ago when oil was <$20
Badger you are so right, talks of gaps up to 5p and new posters suddenly talking as though they know the company inside and out without doing any research. Thankfully a bit calmer today.
Hope you are keeping well.
Gingerhippo - You are misinterpreting the RNS somewhat. The flowrate of 8700boepd is the initial rate for the well and it wont be producing at that rate as per the RNS . UOG have a 22% stake in Abu Sennan and the flow rate is forecast to be capped at c.600boepd net to UOG when on production taking total production up to c.2500boepd
The 57% deduction for the PSC is from gross revenue - so calculate gross revenue, x by 43% and then deduct the $6.50pb and the other admin costs to give you a profit figure.
FYI - Italy next year should be c. $2mpa of margin
levistubbs - thanks mate, I noticed you trying to inject some reality yesterday - I gave up and thought id come back when the froth had died down!. The predictions of margin and mcap seemed to get more nuts as the afternoon wore on
So you're saying 600 x $60 = $36,000
x 0.43 = 15,480
less (600 x 6.5) = $11,580
Which is £8,907 per day
£3.25M PA
GingerHippo the mkt cap is not #9m there are 619m shares in issue not what it says on LSE.
Please all read Badger's posts rather than twitter pump and dumpers.
Lev, I got the mcap from HL.
I don't read Twitter at all.
I am reading Badger's posts since he told me about the 57% charge. I didn't know about that because it doesn't say it in the accounts which I read on Sunday.
Badger lol yes, well it was Polaris that got me all fired up. I had tried to calm his jets on the PERE thread when he was coming out with all sorts of nonsense but then he springs up here talking like he knew it all without doing any research again and relying on LSE figures ;-)
Gingerhippo - replace the $60 in your calc with the current Brent price minus $2. These are new barrels and not hedged
GingerHippo well don't rely on HL either, take it as read there are 619m shares in issue, see the RNS in Feb.
Gingerhippo - the PSC isn't something that's been particularly well disclosed - i'd recommend the December analyst paper on the website
Thanks. I'll read it after work
Gingerhippo - No worries. Heres the link - Pages 6/7
https://www.uogplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/United-Oil-Gas-Acquisition-of-Rockhopper-Egypt-10-Dec-2019.pdf