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For those who purchased at 042p + and the LTH’s stuck here for a while:
I did take some profit out yesterday morning as I have been accumulating these babies since March 2020, when it was being rubbished by many. However I bought back 3 million between 026- 034p again as I personally believe that it has a long way to go , only if pi’s have patience and top up when the sp goes down rather than selling and giving opportunity to MM’s to load up cheap. I have made 6k twice from this stock but only because I did not sell when it dropped like a knife, although I understand that the ones who are sitting on 6p + have a long way to go. Now I am sitting on 026p average and not worried. I believe that there’s a plenty of money on the market as pi’s have been making a lot of profit from ARB, CLP and lately from 88E. I am looking forward to May- July, plenty of news to come- Hold it tight- my opinion. GLA,whatever you decide: Do Read all the RNS’s rather than being influenced by the board messages especially from the Trolls :))
SRBS....May I ask where you think this might go price wise. I have been doing the same as you and, little by little accumulating as many of these shares as I can. I got horribly trolled for asking a few questions last week and thought about deleting the account and disappearing such was the vitriol. I average a tad less than you ...Just looking for a little helpful advice.
senmon1
Glad to see you held on.
Don't be put off by the trolls. It has been tough here & many are disgruntled & many are just swampy activists.
The reality is that as scary as it may be at times unless the company was going to go completely bankrupt ( which I do not see happening) the share price can rise or fall as much as it likes if you do not sell.
When the good time return the paper losses will disappear as will some of the trolls.
Feel the fear & do it anyway.
Gl.
stay with it, but yes there is some unsavoury individuals on here. Been here since 2016 & well under water. Made a real healthy paper profit in 2017 on that fabled rise to 11p. Greed set in & didn't sell & have sat on the side lines since watching it all collapse to almost nothing. BUT BUT seem to got it right yesterday & got out at .41. Twitchy buy finger took over late afternoon & bought back in, still now have 5mill more shares than I had early last week so now have a good cushion for any drops providing they are not too large. Here to spud & may sell some then. This time round confident can get my losses back & a little wiser than before. Good luck to all here let's hope for a steady week ahead, a rise & less drama
Thanks Wizard...I seem to recall you came to help me when I was sinking under the trolling :)
I am worried as I have a lot of these shares..I made the mistake of not selling at .42 and buying back at 25 ish but not being a pro share dealer...I thought these were going to go to .5 and beyond. I average at about .18
Senmon 1 Don't worry I bought at .42 as well Friday. Ok we could have timed it better but I'm not bothered now. Ukog has now so much happening, i will be very surprised if we don't hit .60p next week. Chill and enjoy the weekend...,all.
Thanks Danpoe :))
Making a tea and enjoying a cream cake and waiting for 8am Monday :)))
True.. don't forget we have the "Trolls" Sunday evening to look forward to. Tea and cakes at the ready. lol.
senmon1
I am fairly new to trading to as I transferred my pensions to a SIPP & invested through there.
There are many ways of investing Short medium & long term & ways of getting out of difficult situations sometimes if you are prepared to take more risk by averaging down. ( that is not advice )
From what I know of your situation it is not to serious even if it may be unsettling.
If you were aware of mine & that of many it would make your toes curl.
Despite the difficulties I remain positive on UKOG as I believe the company has a longer term plan that will more than make up for these difficult times now especially when the oil production grows & is produced from Horse Hill over the next 20+ years providing funding for future growth & development & eventually dividends.
As Ocelot posted:
'Given that nobody foresaw the phenomenal volume of the last 2 days, it follows that nobody can predict what happens next.'
My view is it was manufactured based on a 200dma that has been hovering above the SP for some time so someone who has a large following suggesting the SP had reached the bottom at the very least initiated it.
My cynical view is there will be more spikes (but you won't see me encouraging them), because for rises to stick UKOG need to start delivering value - for instance get a CPR, warts and all, rater than silence after a year of production at HH.
RNS, presentations amd interviews concentrating on anything other than the 'asset' or quoting figures seemingly plucked from thin air (ie with no 'backup') are UKOG's MO.
I wonder if UKOG were more forthcoming about the issues there would be less dismay when things don't turn out as good as expected and more belief (in the market, not the positive posters here) when they are positive.
As for SP there is insufficient information for anyone to say UKOG is worth £10mm or £100mm based on it's projects. Even HH is needing more appraisals and an injection trial that will involve risk, everything else depending on a successful drill - by no means guaranteed. SS spoke of projects that could be worth 10s of millions in the Weald (hmm) and 100s of millions,in Turkey. But equally they could be 'worth' a negative amount of the cost of the drill if unsuccessful.
OIl exploration is mostly tearing up dollar bills and chucking them down a hole in the ground. Occasionally they come up succesful. My question always is 'where is the money coming from? for all these grandiose plans. Mostly placings for the oil minnows and where does that come from. You got it.
Penguins,
I think you have hit the nail on the head.
If UKOG had been more upfront with, for example, the water ingress problems at HH, why they didn't recomplete HH-1z as a dual Portland / Kimm producer, what their plans are for the Kimm at HH & BB and hadn't missed so many of their stated objectives in the last couple of years, then they might have more credibility as far as PI's are concerned.
Equally, if the rest of BoD followed the CFO's lead and actually bought some of their own shares, that would also bring some much needed credibility.
As you pointed out, the final thing that would bring some credibility would be to update the 2018 CPR for HH - then at least we'd have an idea if they plan to book any reserves to the Kimm.
But if I've done my maths correctly, the figures for the Weald that SS gave in his video last week mean that they have not assigned any reserves to the Kimm at HH & BB.
zyx098
I take it you have made up you mind that no reserves will be allocated for the Kimmeridge & I note yours & Penguins constant referral to the change of plans for the dual completion of HH1.
What you never seem to take account of is the change of circumstances that occurred & the fact that UKOG bought another 35% of the Horse Hill licence from Tellurian or that the other Horse Hill partners have paid there share of the cash calls for development but probably still want there share of any profits.
Hi Wizard,
I'm still somewhat opened minded about the Kimm, but it does look like they are not allocating any reserves to it as per SS's video earlier in the week.
In addition, their stated plan was to dual complete the Portland and Kimm on the recent W/O.
They didn't, but there has been no statement as to why not.
Also, they slipped in a comment on their Loxely application along the lines of the Kimm had proven to be uncommercial at HH & BB.
All rather odd considering the EWT on the Kimm at HH appeared to go very well. So they obviously saw something in the results that has given them pause for thought - something that they have not shared with the markets.
As for buying out Tellurian, I'm not sure why that should change any thought of booking or not booking reserves to the Kimm.
If I recall correctly, the deal was done prior to the Kim EWT? Given the relative Company sizes and Tellurians focus is elsewhere, they were probably pleased to get HH off their books.
Might be misreading what you intended to say, but we do know that Alba haven't paid their cash calls on at least two occasions (and possibly more since then?).
We have not been made privy to any side deal between UKOG and Alba, however, their share of any profits from HH production would be used by UKOG to pay off those cash calls (maybe with interest?) before they actually got paid any cash.
zyx098
I have my thoughts as to why, which include the new 6 well not 2 well environmental permit with the predicted revenue per well in production.
I'm sure that the decisions that are being taken will ultimately be to shareholders best interests & the rewards will be provided.
This is a longer term investment & anyone wanting a fast buck can be a trader. I believe UKOG states that returns are likely to come over the longer term of 7 years plus which obviously covers permissions, development & costs
My thoughts are that when HH is in full production with 25 years production granted & other sites are granted or in development or production investors will really feel the benefit unless someone else sees the benefits & buys them out.
Hopefully at a good premium to the share price at the time. If the French we prepared to pay11p+ pre EWT & development what do you think someone would pay in production with 6 well & a full CPR & other licences granted & producing?
zyx098
Penguins is a self confirmed trader what's your game?
zyx098
The funny thing is that UKOG's perceived problem of water ingress will probably be UKOG's blessing as once a water injection system is fitted the produced water will enhance production & support reservoir pressure in the long term & water will not have to be brought in from outside at additional cost.
Short term problem long term benefit.
wizz - the problem is that HH2z was supposed to be a PRODUCER - it isn't - at least some of it is in the water. So the original Reservoir model is wrong as they have water where they expected oil - that means a certain reduction in Oil in Place and in what can be produced. That's why there is no new CPR
Mirasol
Water injection was always going to be needed in the early stages & would need to have been provided to support production that was not even there in the EWT to prevent depletion.
As far as I know HH1 in its present form was not drilled as a production well, it will be interesting to see what happens after the water injector is fitted & what it will produce as a horizontal well after its reperforation when the water is reinjected.
Sorry that was HH1 vertical well can produce after its reperforation with water injection.
"Water injection was always going to be needed in the early stages & would need to have been provided to support production that was not even there in the EWT to prevent depletion. As far as I know HH1 in its present form was not drilled as a production well, it will be interesting to see what happens after the water injector is fitted & what it will produce as a horizontal well after its reperforation when the water is reinjected."
Wizz - the injector was well 4 or 5 in a 6 well campaign - HH2 zwas supposed to be the 2000 bopd producer- remember?
HH-1 is a slant well (tho not very slant in the Portland) - it was never mean to be an injector nor have UKOG ever said it would be - they talked about a dual completion as a producer from the Portland and the kimm (remember that?) .
You don't turn your only producer into a water injector - not even ANGS are that stupid.
Mirasol
I never siad it was please reread my post!
HH1 was reperforated in late 2020 the well has been under very controlled production due to the wated now being produced & the cost of exporting it offsite.
If the water can be reinjected the production may no longer need to be held back & we can see how well it will flow.
HH2 is now planned to become the water injection well.
HH-1 was deviated up to 18 degrees down to the Kimmeridge.
Record Well Name MD (ft) MD (m) Inclination Azimuth Easting (X) Northing (Y)
1 HORSE HILL 1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 525254.91 143600.31
2 HORSE HILL 1 875.00 266.70 0.25 105.00 525255.47 143600.16
3 HORSE HILL 1 1185.00 361.19 0.25 5.00 525255.69 143600.32
4 HORSE HILL 1 1500.00 457.20 0.50 60.00 525256.07 143600.73
5 HORSE HILL 1 1780.00 542.54 1.00 215.00 525255.97 143600.31
6 HORSE HILL 1 1816.90 553.79 0.85 25.35 525255.95 143600.31
7 HORSE HILL 1 1861.90 567.51 0.85 20.41 525256.02 143600.49
8 HORSE HILL 1 1906.40 581.07 0.81 18.93 525256.09 143600.68
9 HORSE HILL 1 1945.40 592.96 1.07 9.77 525256.14 143600.87
10 HORSE HILL 1 1991.40 606.98 3.04 359.78 525256.16 143601.37
11 HORSE HILL 1 2035.80 620.51 5.12 353.20 525256.08 143602.33
12 HORSE HILL 1 2081.00 634.29 6.90 351.36 525255.89 143603.75
13 HORSE HILL 1 2125.20 647.76 7.95 353.47 525255.66 143605.48
14 HORSE HILL 1 2169.40 661.23 9.33 345.15 525255.27 143607.46
15 HORSE HILL 1 2214.00 674.83 10.78 342.03 525254.60 143609.73
16 HORSE HILL 1 2257.70 688.15 12.46 340.10 525253.73 143612.27
17 HORSE HILL 1 2302.00 701.65 14.34 340.41 525252.67 143615.21
18 HORSE HILL 1 2346.80 715.30 15.90 339.52 525251.45 143618.56
19 HORSE HILL 1 2390.70 728.69 17.23 340.00 525250.13 143622.14
20 HORSE HILL 1 2434.00 741.88 18.64 339.11 525248.71 143625.94
21 HORSE HILL 1 2478.30 755.39 19.59 339.09 525247.13 143630.07
Welltops HH-1
Top MD (f) MD (m) TVDSS (f) TVDSS (m) TWT (s) Detail
Weald Clay 25 7.6 -220 -66.9 - -
Hastings Beds 520 158.5 276 84.0 - -
Grinstead Clay 695 211.8 451 137.3 - -
Lower Tunbridge Wells Sands 770 234.7 526 160.2 - -
Wadhurst Clay 805 245.4 561 170.8 - -
Ashdown Beds 978 298.1 734 223.6 - -
Purbeck Durlston Beds 1302 396.8 1058 322.3 - -
Purbeck Carbonates 1525 464.8 1281 390.3 - -
Purbeck Main Anhydrite 1984 604.7 1740 530.2 0.385 -
Portland Sandstone 2042 622.4 1797 547.7 0.384 -
Lower Portland Sandstone 2324 708.4 2075 632.5 0.437 -
Kimmeridge Clay 2480 755.9 2223 677.6 0.469 -
Think the trolls themselves may be in part responsible for UKOG's resurgence.
By constantly focusing on the negatives, they seem to have ensured that the negatives were fully discounted in the share price.
Consequently, the share price was primed to rise on any positive developments (permission to drill from the Turkish authorities, cash from investors in 88 Energy, cash from wealthy Turkish investors, ...).
Wizard,
The EA is revision to previous permits asking for EA permission to test and for treatments to further wells at HH. There is no change to the allowed mass of gas allowed to be flared. From EPR/BB3300XG, determined 31st August 2017, 'The amount of gas to be flared shall not exceed 10 tonnes per day.' From this request: 'Incinerating natural gas at a rate not exceeding 10 tonnes per day during production operations.
They will continue to store and handle crude oil up to a capacity of 500 tonnes within the existing infrastructure and within the current permitted boundary (Permit EPR/SP3339YS)
The following applications from the original application for consolidating the permits with the above have now been
withdrawn:
• Permit Number: EPR/SP3339YS/V002 to allow for a regulated facility type: 1.2 A(1) h) (i) - Loading/Storage/
Treatment etc of Crude Oil
• EPR/TP3007PZ/A001 to allow for the operation of specified generators with an aggregated capacity of less than
50MWth for the production of electricity for export.
As they have said they want to drill a further 2 wells the request for EA permission for testing and treatments for HH-3 to HH-6 is timely - if there is production from those wells they will be subject to further EA permission, but the loading plant and gas to wire requests have been withdrawn.
Note the following from the Gas Management Plan:-
'6.2, however this Gas Management Plan has been produced to assess the techniques considered the best available
for waste gas during activities associated with production from the HH-1 well only, and extended well testing of each
additional hydrocarbon exploration well.'
and
'With the sites main commodity being oil no other gas management techniques have been considered within the
quantitative assessment as the volume of gas encountered thus far suggests that there is not enough to power the site by itself let alone for exportation. Gas volumes are too low for heat generators and gas turbine technologies,
forcing HHDL to consider small scale generator sets only.'
However they have indicated gas production from HH-1 of 25,000scf/day. In the Geological Reservoir parameters they quote 180scf/bbl as the current GOR (document dated 21 Jan 2021) so about 140bopd.
Water injection into a fractured reservoir, especially from a well not specifically placed for that purpose and a reservoir they appear to have difficulty modeling is not a turn it on, it will work process - it will need to be tested and may only work partially, or not at all, or make things worse. I'm also not sure how early water injection was considered to be needed - if UKOG knew it was 6 months after start of production - and it had to work - perhaps they should have mentioned that otherwise decline would be catastrophic - but there's never any risk with UKOG projects, everything will turn out fine - until it doesn't.