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In a 4/5 week period we could be having around 16 oil tankers leaving horeshill... in 4 months that would be around 1.25 million dollars.. so no need for a placing to convert hh2 well to a water injector the moneys already there... in my opinion
I drive a car with five seats.
I'm usually the only one in it.
Similar to UKOG tanker loads.
If there's nothing in 'em there's no money either.
HH1AN2,
Let's assume an optimistic 90 bbls/day for 17 weeks = 90 x 7 x 17 = 10,710 bbls of production.
At $90/bbl, that's 10,710 x 90 = $963,900
So already your estimate is 30% out.
You have allowed zero for production costs, water disposal cots, licence fees, overheads, debt servicing etc.
The last figure we had was $15/bbl for production costs, which does NOT include the cost of produced water disposal.
So $15 x 10,710 = $160,650 in production costs, leaving $963,900 - $160,650 = $803,250
We don't have a good figure for water disposal costs, but a ball park figure should be in the $15/bbl range as well, with c. 50 bbls/day water production.
So the cost of water disposal = 50 x $15 x 17 x 7 = $89,250
So we are left with $803,250 - 89,250 = $714,000.
Licence fees are fairly minimal (can't be bothered to actually look them up), but let's say $10k for that period, so we are down to $704,000.
Don't forget that UKOG don't get 100% of production - it's around 86%.
So $704,000 x 0.86 = $605,440.
Now, didn't UKOG promise a certain % of production to the good Residents of Surrey?
Wasn't it around 5%? Let's be conservative and say it was 2 1/2%.
So $704,000 x 0.025 = $17,600.
So we now have $605,440 - 17,600 = $587,840.
SS's salary / shares / pension contributions / bonus appear to be around £750 pd = 750 x $1.35 = $1,012.5 pd
So for that period, 1,012.5 x 7 x 17 = $120,487
That leaves us with $587,840 - 120,487 = $467,352.
How much is their debt servicing cost?
Hmmm, tricky one. I'm going to take a guess at 2% p.a. on their c. £35 Million debt = £228,219 for that period = $308,096
So we are now down to $467,352 - 308,096 = $159,256
And out of that there is the office overheads, consultants salaries, payments to the other BoD members etc.
So UKOG are, at best, just about breaking even with current HH production.
So yes, there will be a placing required to do the surface & downhole conversion work for HH-2z.
ZYX098,
Hmmm, tricky one. I'm going to take a guess at 2% p.a. on their c. £35 Million debt ...
---------------------
There is no £35m debt. Borrowings at 31/03/21 were £3.086m and consist of the advances to HHDL made by the 2 outside investors, principally Alba, where interest is, from memory, 10% over base rate.
HH1AN2
What are you smoking?
six-month period ended 31 March 2021
The operating loss for the six months to 31 March 2021 was £1.02 million
Revenue £721k
Other Cost of sales (£544k)
The flow rates then were higher, cost of fuel lower, drivers wages lower and imo they don't get "Brent" rates as the quality is lower. By my calculations the revenue should have been higher as it would include Horndean.
Expected revenue based on average price of "Brent" for each month and barrels produced.
Month Barrels Av POO Revenue
Oct 20 1466 40.47 59329
Nov 20 3038 43.23 131333
Dec 20 2539 49.87 126620
Jan 21 3170 54.55 172923
Feb 21 2786 61.96 172621
Mar 21 3246 65.19 211607
$874433
iBug, ZXY,
The rampers don't know how to read accounts and they certainly don't know how to do math.
Wild claims about HH making big profits and filling coffers, and not needing placing for HH2z conversion.
A question for the rampers, Do you think UKOG had convert the current HH2z well to water injector with nothing more than a crane, some sticky back tape and some blu-tack? The truth is that it will take a lot more than that, will take weeks to complete with expensive kit and expensive resources. UKOG don't have the cash for it, right now, they are looking unlikely to get past end of March before they run out of cash.
As I've said many times, read the accounts, do the math, and see where you get. Crude price increase has helped them massively in the last 3 months.
Placing coming v soon. Of that I am 100% confident.
As for revenues, why haven't they switched the Kim back on, that would give them dry oil and higher volumes, that could give them the increased revenue and elimination of water treatment/disposal costs in the short term. Would be great to see 200 bopd dry oil from the Kim right now. ---- The answer is that the CEO does not want to make any comments on the Kimmeridge as they have either (a) screwed the well downhole, or (b) found that the downhole pressure is rubbish given the geology. To support (b), did they not have downhole pressure sensors installed to give them the data to help establish when they "could" return to the Kim?
- all in my own opinion of course -
p.s. Someone tell that idiot that it is "HORSEHILL", he always gets the S and E the wrong way around, maybe he should consider a W on the front too? After all, the W would provide a reasonable account of how PI's have been treated by the CEO.
"either (a) screwed the well downhole, or (b) found that the downhole pressure is rubbish given the geology. To support (b), did they not have downhole pressure sensors installed to give them the data to help establish when they "could" return to the Kim?"
They seemed to be doing OK for quite a while on the Kimm - it really did flow (unlike Broadford Bridge) so I doubt they screwed up the reservoir. A lot of published technical discussion around the whole Kimm Play was to do with the extent of pressure connectivity and pressure support in a rather unknown reservoir.
The odds are they drained all the oil that was (easily) moveable over the 18 months or so of the EWT - declining pressures would have told them they had a problem a long time before they stopped. No doubt a lot of studies were carried out and we can guess that the costs of doing something, or even completing it as a dual producer, were not attractive .
So unattractive they went off to Turkey instead.
I don't think just over 50k bbl of oil produced from the Kimmeridge is that much.
From 28 Jan 20 RNS
"The HH-1 Kimmeridge interval will now remain shut in for a further long duration pressure build-up test. Plans to install a dual completion to enable HH-1 to produce from both the Portland and Kimmeridge oil pools are being formulated. A future Kimmeridge appraisal/production well is also planned, once full Portland Production and positive cash flow has been established from the field."
Since then?
Turkey shoot time!
"I see this move into Turkey as crucial to the Company’s continued success and prosperity. Our Weald Basin assets, although some of the best in the UK onshore, particularly Loxley and the Kimmeridge, simply do not offer the same step-change growth potential we aspire to and, due to the increasing regulatory burden, take far too long to monetise."
"It is expected that the further HH-3 Portland and HH-4 Kimmeridge infill wells will be planned in detail and drilled at Horse Hill following the completion of the Company’s potentially transformational initial Turkey Basur-Resan appraisal drilling campaign."