Snaith2, aka Adrian,
If you neighbour has a water leak, then is your house flooded?
I ask, because, if UKOG's original statements about HH2z being a different compartment in the Portland are true, then injecting water into that well may not drive oil up much at all. Have they really modelled HH1 / HH2z and shared that publicly? You seem to have a lot of confidence in a CEO that has a rather shocking track record.
I don't think funds are needed for working cap. The cash balance (£4,672,508) was very very healthy as of 30th June 2021 as detailed in the RNS this Monday, and they not have 200+ bopd net of income from Wressle, giving ~£300k revenue / month.
The Tom Winnifrith article is an interesting read.
But, if that £5m is to buy out another company, to take a larger share in another asset, or to increase their royalty deal, then I really see that as a positive sign. Junior oilers need to invest to grow, and it's PI's that'll pay for that. If you haven't worked that out by now, then you're in the wrong game.
So you had my post reported and removed? Strange as I broke no rules. I merely pointed out that the charts speak for themselves and quoting the moving day averages really doesn't add much from a debate perspective.
All in my opinion of course, and you cannot say that I am breaking any rules given that I am stating my opinion, after all this is supposed to be a chat board.
As stated, illusions of grandeur... LOL... Post what you want, it makes not a jot of difference to the fundamentals. It's a side show with traces of comedy, are you really serious about your below post? Jeepers creepers... Oh my word. Maybe you could start a crowd funding campaign to get your own political party started whilst you're at it. I'm literally crying in laughter at what you've posted in respect of your so called self appointed cult status. Do me a favour, keep it up, I need a good laugh each day.
"Team Heid", LMAO, you really do have illusions of grandeur. I've seen your posts both here and on twitter, they are mildly amusing. Was it earlier this week that you were claiming to be a cult figure?
I'd be suspicious of anyone who is making such claims, one's credit and opinions look very dubious when they show such love for a share and for self proclaimed status akin to that you are promoting. You'd be better off keeping it on the straight and narrow, and avoiding the so-called "team captain / cult figure" rubbish.
I'm not invested here because of your views or opinions or your posts on any platform. It's plain simple stone cold analysis that brought my investment, nothing more, nothing less. I'm sure that most others would state the same.
All in my opinion of course.
"Brockham never reinjected water." Correct, but Angs are pursuing that option now
2002 : 2382 M3 = 15006.6barrels = 41.11 bopd
2003 : 1713 M3 = 10791.9barrels = 29.56 bopd
2004 : 4795 M3 = 30208.5barrels = 82.76 bopd
2005 : 5665 M3 = 35689.5barrels = 97.77 bopd
2006 : 4193 M3 = 26415.9barrels = 72.37 bopd
2007 : 2879 M3 = 18137.7barrels = 49.69 bopd
2008 : 4512 M3 = 28425.6barrels = 77.87 bopd
2009 : 2889 M3 = 18200.7barrels = 49.86 bopd
2010 : 2118 M3 = 13343.4barrels = 36.55 bopd
2011 : 2382 M3 = 15006.6barrels = 41.11 bopd
Hardly ground-breaking volumes of oil.
Will HH Portland sustain the current rates for 9 years or will it fall off a cliff?
Will water injection into HH2z provide a material improvement in production rates given the so-called separate compartment comments from SS in the past?
Of course, Brockham may not be a good baseline as the geology is slightly different, but for the 9 years above, Brockham delivered 211k barrels of oil, then it was shut-in. How much has the existing EWT+Production through HH1 drained from the recoverable volume of oil? That said, where is the updated CPR that was promised some time ago?
All in my opinion as usual
Difficult to pick through the accounts and be 100% accurate, but to me, it looks like UKOG are losing £220k per month.
So whatever float you think they had (i.e. £4.21m), that is reducing by £220k per month. March thru end of Sept is a burn of £1.54m, so they probably have ~ £2.7m or thereabouts, but given their restriction on how many more nominal shares they can issue between now and the next AGM (May 2022), and given their burn rate (8 months until AGM), and given their lack of positive cashflow (i.e. they are making a loss), then they will need £1.76m just to keep the lights on. That only leaves them with ~£1m for other activities. That's unless of course they do issue another placing (something that I've been saying will happen before year end).
HH-2 injector will eat up most of that cash in my opinion, in fact, has anyone seen any mention of them buying the kit for the reinjection of water into HH2z? Maybe they already have that kit, maybe not, but if they don't then it's not a cheap purchase.
So, in short, I think it's a bit dull for any investor, existing or potential, to think that UKOG are are in great cash position. The cash is being consumed at a rate of knots, the assets are not providing sufficient profitable income to offset costs/overheads, and the company needs to spend a lot more cash to explore the viability of their assets (including the dead duck that is Turkey).
On paper, UKOG have nothing more than a small income from Horndean and 100 bopd from HH. I'd expect H2z to provide some potential for increase of that 100 bopd, but my view is that it'll not push it above 150 bopd, and that the recovery rates will drop off to sub 100 bopd within 2 years (from studying existing figures, looking at the CPR, and drawing out comparisons with other similar plays (e.g. Brockham, where the Portland flowed historically). Indeed, if you look at Brockham (which is in close proximity), Angus are looking at water injection to aid the restoration of Portland production, that may / may not give them a commercial flow rate, but if it does, then I don't see it being a 2+ year operation.
Draw your own conclusions, but I will add one further thought for comment. Why is the CEO so quiet, why has he provided a limited update to the market on their operational priorities for 2021/2022, and why has he not made a clear statement in reference to their funding position?
I do see UKOG dropping to sub 0.1p before Xmas, with only a small trading window of opportunity based on the short term spike that the planning inspectorate decision will offer(i.e. SP may spike to 0.18p if lucky, but it'll then drop to sub 0.1p as the bad news continues to roll, and the CEO continues to hide away behind an even quieter Chairman).
All in my opinion of course.
I think it's a reasonable question from RNSTranslator. I do not like CEO's of AIM companies taking large salaries, and certainly do not think that large % increases are merited in the case of UJO. David B should really reward himself through stock options which will generate a very favourable return if the company delivers the successes he's boasted about for a long time. Wressle has been fantastic, the loyalty deal(s) are solid, WN needs to deliver, and then onto the other assets in due course.
The CEO needs to be careful now, his investor comms have dropped somewhat and he is open to criticism for that.
Hopefully, DB does not continue with the silly % increases, they are not merited.
But, the most important thing right now, that EWT at WNA, not long until an update, hopefully by end of the month.
funstar you certainly need to go on a basic economics course. It's not about securing 100% of supply for our national needs, it's about minimising the import. Nobody is suggesting the UJO or the entire UK onshore sector can fulfil 100% of ours needs, but it helps minimise the magnitude on the import front. Got it? No, ok, If you still can't work the basics out, then take a look at the following, you can complete it in 8 weeks (7-10 hours per week):
Who really cares about some deal with Qatar, that does not make a jot of difference with regards to the UJO assets or future prospects. And for someone to claim that creating further dependency on overseas supply is dandy, then you need to go to a night class on basic economics. The UK does need to generate more oil and gas and weaken the dependency on imports, simple. Long term, it's to our benefit to home grow (jobs, taxes, etc, etc), and to avoid import, after all, do you really want to be sucking money out of our own economy when we are in the position that we are?
If you look at the case on the Planning Inspectorate site (https://acp.planninginspectorate.gov.uk/ViewCase.aspx?caseid=3268579) then you will observe that the Applicant is "UKOG (234) Ltd".
Interestingly, if you look on Companies House, the accounts for "UKOG (234) Ltd" are overdue and should have been submitted 30th June 2021. The company is now listed with a status of "Active proposal to strike off".
Maybe a technicality, but would the planning inspectorate rule in favour of an applicant that is facing a strike off by companies house? Have UKOG returned those accounts now? Are SS and his mates looking to strike off a number of the companies under their umbrella to simplify the day to day running? It's important to note that all creditors must be repaid before this can done. Not sure what debt that particular company has or why UKOG are 2+ months late filing the accounts. It just smacks of terrible management.
All in my opinion of course.
I contacted the guy who was running that campaign. His reply was that he was keen to restart the campaign, but that he had insufficient time to do this at present. Apparently he had a well respected CEO helping him with some of the basics in running the campaign. That CEO also had a few suggestions for candidates to replace SS, all of which had a decent track record of shareholder relations.
I do not hold any shares in UKOG, so could not help him with adding to the 7% he had already mustered.
For what it is worth, I back his motives for the ousting of the CEO and the rest of the directors. How can a CEO be allowed to stay in post given his complete lack of responsibility to shareholders? How can a CEO really think he can evade investor / shareholder calls? It's a joke right.
All in my opinion of course.