Shaun Day, Greatland CEO gave an upbeat presentation to over 800 London South East investors. Watch the full video here.
In the appeal, I do recall SS confirming that Xodus had reprocessed the old data sets, but had taken into account inputs from other consultants in relation to how the data should be modelled.
I wonder how much UKOG paid these "other consultants", who these "consultants" are, and whether it was SS throwing them the coinage that swayed them to model the data differently. It seems that SS got the outcome he wanted as the figures went up.
Loxely will be another duster if drilled. Pointless waste of money in my opinion. Be better off tapping up OEX to see if they are looking for a partner in India.
You do realise that the cash balance as of 31st March 2021 pre-dates the mobilisation of the rig at Basur-3.
The site preparations commenced on the 23rd March 2021.
In your calcs, are you suggesting that the £3.16m is the cost of Turkey, and the *full* cost? As we all know that their capped spend does not cover all costs.
Time will tell, shame that the CEO is so quiet and refuses to do investor calls or provide updates on funding and plans for the next 8 months. Who knows that they'll do between now and next May; my suspicion is that they will so SFA and keep the trotters up.
I'm not "het up" Ibug. Maybe you were reading my posts with a predetermined mindset that I was posting with a bit of angst.
Far from it.
I am simply pointing out that UKOG have limited capacity to raise further funds between now and the next AGM.
They'll struggle to raise more than £1.5m with the allowances granted using the portion of shares that can be used in a placing, and they'll not hoodwink PI's with an open offer a second time around. All in all, I think that they are unlikely to get more than £1.8m in at a push.
My next point, and this one is quite important.
I think UKOG need more than £1.8m between now and the next AGM to remain afloat.
I did say back in July that UKOG would do further fundraising by way of placing(s) this year, and I stick to my guns on that.
The next notable point is that I don't believe that they will have any funds to do anything with HH2z until after the next AGM. They will of course be doing a minimum of 2 placings in 2022/2023 and I'd expect a further 8 BILLION shares to be thrown into the mix. They certainly won't be able to borrow or secure RBL to cover the costs of Loxley.
Throw in the extra costs that Turkey will present, and given that similar wells in the area are providing only low output, then they are not going to see a transformational revenue stream coming in from there.
So Placing for considerable cash to drill Loxley (which will be a duster in my opinion).
No cash for IoW (planning likely to be refused and then there will be an appeal, in my opinion).
No cash for HH2z conversion to injector (pending OGA approval anyway)
No cash for the extra commitments in Turkey
No cash for BB abandonment, and they'll soon have to deal with that quite soon (I doubt that they'll get another extension)
And only a dribble of profit at asset level from Horndean & HH, which is insufficient to cover the company overheads.
So all in all, UKOG look a terrible prospect, with the only real objective by the CEO and his fellow directors seemingly to be to take the salary (bonuses?) until the company folds.
All in my opinion of course, would love it if someone could bat back on the above and show (through accounts and burn rate) how UKOG will be able to deliver anything (that is a success) without massive cash calls.
Ibug, I think you have to understand that they are limited to 8 BILLION shares in total, not 8 Billion as per resolution 1 and a further 4 Billion as per resolution 2. And of the 8 BILLION only 4 have the pre-exemption rights waived. Do you understand?
In case you missed it:
As per RNS on 9th July : (UKOG) "proposes to raise up to £4.7m (before expenses) via an Open Offer of up to 2,643,429,529 Open Offer Shares at £0.0018 per New Ordinary Share"
As per RNS on 27th July: "The Company received valid applications in respect of a total of 256,974,621 new ordinary shares in the Company ("Open Offer Shares"). The aggregate amount raised pursuant to the Open Offer was £462,554."
So they raised just shy of 10% of what they had set out to achieve via open offer. How do you think they will fare when trying to peddle ~3.5 BILLION shares of what remains eligible via Open Offer? Do you think that they can pull the same trick again and if so, do you think the same people that lost out last time would put their hands in the pockets again?
I should correct that.
UKOG issued 2,763,888,878 new ordinary shares on 5th July.
They have allowance to issue £800,000 of nominal shares at 0.01p each. Thus 8 Billion in TOTAL, of which £400,000 can bee issued in accordance with resolution 2 in the AGM that allowed them to "dis-apply the statutory rights of pre-emption".
So, they have £400,000 nominal shares (4 Billion shares) that can be used in placings, of which 2,763,888,878 have already been issued.
That leaves 1,236,111,122 shares that they can issue via placing. At the current SP minus discount of 10%, so say 0.115p that gives them ~ £1.42 million that thy could raise if they did so right now.
A future open offer and using up the remaining allowance of the 4 BILLION shares, is not going to deliver much, look at the most recent effort, where the uptake at 0.18p was pretty terrible with folks still holding those looking at a 28% paper loss.
Yeah, yeah, yeah...
The Loxley news is due and I think we can all agree that the likely outcome is that SCC walk away with egg on their faces + a huge legal bill. Penny Rivers and her mates will still be sipping fizzy wine whilst reading the latest XR headlines and Insulate Britain tosh.
What does that mean for the SP? Well, I'm sure that it give the *opportunity* for a jump, and if you like a quick trade then "maybe just maybe" it gives someone who knows how to take a quick profit that opportunity for a few quid.
But, it does not change the fundamentals one bit. UKOG are flat out of cash, and have to raise to drill Loxley, so be prepared for something in the order of £5m+ to be raised via placing. Unfortunately, UKOG do not have sufficient nominal shares to issue to raise anywhere near this level of cash before the next AGM, that's unless they bring an EGM and motion(s) to allow them to do so.
On top of this, UKOG do not have the cash to cover the rest of the Turkey commitments. I assume you can all read RNSs and understand what their capped spend commitments actually cover and what they do not. So more cash needed there.
Then there is HH and production from HH1. Great that Brent has climbed in value and that was essential to help bolster the revenue stream from the asset. But the fact remains that Oil production is dropping (albeit quite gradually).
But, back to Loxley, is there really gas or oil there? check out the statements in the posts yesterday, from formal publications! Drilling for dust me thinks.
Don't talk about Broadford Bridge abandonment costs. LOL....
Correct, the application to explore and subsequently produce O&G is a legal matter, any decision to refuse/permit an application is not a political one, it must be done so in accordance with the law.
XR/Swampy/NIMBY objections to O&G in the UK on the grounds of "we don't need it" or "it flies against our future carbon neutral commitments" will fall on deaf ears from a legal perspective. There is no law that says that O&G exploration/production must be ceased, thus their views that it must be ceased are meritless and nothing more than noise.
Unless the government make some serious changes to policy and then bring in law changes, then XR/greenpeace know that their campaigns are nothing more than a PR machine.
Do I want to see CO2 drop and our climate, environment, ecology, and economy protected? Absolutely I do !!
But is it a legal requirement that mandates that O&G exploration and production cease right now? Absolutely not !!
You can talk the talk, but can you walk the walk.
It's simple to setup a Twitter account, so do that, take a video, post it. Make sure that you reference something said that is "todays news" (e.g. Boris speech at the TPC).
If you cannot do this, then do you really expect those here to believe what you say?
It's all conjecture on the part of UKOG, you see they are writing their own script.
Frankly, I cannot see beyond the following statement as a massive red flag:
"The Godley Bridge gas field was discovered in 1982 by Conoco with the well Godley Bridge-1, which tested gas and a small amount of condensate from Upper Jurassic Portland Sandstones. The trap of the Godley Bridge structure is a broad east-west trending anticline of Tertiary age. There have been two further wells on the structure neither of which encountered hydrocarbon bearing reservoir. Godley Bridge-2 and 2z were drilled to the west of Godley Bridge-1, both failed to find hydrocarbon bearing sands. The top Portland was encountered deep to prognosis and below the GWC as seen in Godley Bridge1. The well penetrated 314ft of gross Portland reservoir. "
To quote Bones McCoy from Star Trek "It's dead Jim" (It being Loxley).
Merely a ploy by UKOG CEO to raise more cash to preserve his lavish lifestyle through to retirement.
All in my opinion of course.
Think folks should read the CPR from 2018, see link: https://www.ukogplc.com/ul/UKOG%202018%20CPR%20060618.pdf
"Godley Bridge is a discovery in PEDL235, which is the neighbouring licence to the west of PEDL234. A recent review by Xodus of the interpretation of wells and seismic shows that there is potential that the Godley Bridge discovery extends into PEDL234.
The Godley Bridge gas field was discovered in 1982 by Conoco with the well Godley Bridge-1, which tested gas and a small amount of condensate from Upper Jurassic Portland Sandstones. The trap of the Godley Bridge structure is a broad east-west trending anticline of Tertiary age. There have been two further wells on
the structure neither of which encountered hydrocarbon bearing reservoir.
Godley Bridge-2 and 2z were drilled to the west of Godley Bridge-1, both failed to find hydrocarbon bearing sands. The top Portland was encountered deep to prognosis and below the GWC as seen in Godley Bridge1. The well penetrated 314ft of gross Portland reservoir. "
Now pray tell, how can UKOG get RBL from any lender given the above statements in the CPR.
Is there a newer CPR and have Xodus given a formal CPR on Loxley?
I wonder if BKP will have put their charges up given the driver shortages? I'd expect that to be a firm "yes".
I had rounded the figures, but accept it's 95 rather than 90 bopd. Still a steady decline.
No amount of ramping on this board will serve to increase the oil output or to reduce the water cut, or to make BKP contract charges cheaper.
FACT: HH is delivering less oil with higher costs proportional to those 12 months ago. Price of Brent is the only positive, that's up quite nicely of late.
Pete, I doubt that UJO will take any notice of your post and will therefore not reply with a tweet.
Be better if you get some of your so-called local contacts and tea brew mates to post recent videos rather than stuff from 2019.
Meanwhile, we wait for Roofers Hound to do a fly-over and show us the real current state of affairs on site at WN-A.
DB has gone completely AWOL, not what you want to see from a CEO when the company is plummeting.
Come on DB< apparently you read this message board, so how about you man up and show us what you're all about, a proper interview and answer the many questions that PI's have right now. You've been backed to the hilt by many, now it's time for you to show some mutual respect and return the favour.
Oil production down to 90 bopd, gas production down, and water cut at 40 bopd.
Trending downwards at a rate of knots.
Water disposal costs hitting hard, I wonder if BKP will have put their charges up given the driver shortages?
Less oil = less revenue, so water disposal will be eating up an even greater % of the profits.
Meanwhile, in leafy Surrey, the CEO wakes to another day of loveliness all paid for by PI's.