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HI theyknowitall
Not seen you post for some time good to see you back.
Have to say I do totally disagree with Turner Popes Silver fundamental statement it goes against everything that is being published and talked about at this moment in time regarding Silver along with the comments " so the potential remains that Silver price could finish the year below the current level." REALLY
944T
Hi Turbo, Not helpful when your in house broker puts out a 12 page document with an exploration value of 2.2p going into a potential commodity super cycle
Feels like the mechanics of the market have been ignored
My issue with them was they never valued the projects and now they have you think WTF
Totally agree if I were Bill I would be having a serious word.
I also don't see where they get their numbers from.
944T
TKIA - TP have basically valued what's known, and then applied an exploration discount. I think that's ok, but it needs to be understood for what it is. The opportunity for UFO is to come up with evidence that there is more to these projects than was previously understood. For example, the Mexico silver projects could easily be updated in terms of g/t AND the exploration discount reduced over time. Thus UFO has significant upside potential. It just has to do its job as an explorer, and prove that there is more in the ground at some of its projects than has been shown before.
It also has to show how one or more of the projects can be commercialised effectively. This precisely what Bill and his colleagues do. Their opportunity to add value is in execution. Whilst the much-heralded commodities super-cycle provides a useful tailwind, it will never be enough in itself to prompt a re-rate. That will come from successful exploration and project development work. Exactly what they are doing at present!
SB yes fully appreciate that will look forward to your input.
You just know the doom mongers will be out lol.
944T
star, turbo
We are agreed that good timely PR is key but eventually whats in the ground and proved up will move the SP
Broker note is a cheerleader ra ra with a flat 3 month SP and not a document highlighting a reason to invest
Exploration values are hard to rate but thats what they are paid to do
Would guess most investing in Aim don't read notes. We need a tasty target at EH, a good rise in the silver price, then a JV for EH. All these 3 will move the price up.
There's up, and then there's UP. One of those three should increase value. All three would be great.
All three within a month would be phenomenal.
A bit behind here, but just making my way through... Their silver forecast to finish the year lower than it is now based on a slow recovery of demand in industry and jewellery making - effectively they’re insinuating demand is at its low and going to pick up so I struggle to see how increasing demand, even if it is gradual, will see silver prices lower.
Volatile and “the devils metal” however... they might be right there.
Anyone got any suggestion why they’ve used 37Mt of iron as lowside and 75Mt as upside - as I understand it the upside (which they suggested may need to be revised upwards) 245Mt, 51% of which is circa 125Mt, substantially higher.
I noticed that too EWT. The theme I get from the research note is under promise and over deliver.
I am fairly happy with it as things stand at the moment. It at least gives us a baseline.
But as you mentioned their note on silver possibly finishing the year lower is an insult!
Agree with Max... TP have to be risk averse in what they produce as an agent of Alien, and whilst they can say upside/downside case, One project coming along could blow the entire valuation, but that's why valuations can be updated. No one wants to see an early doors speculative valuation at this stage of 27p, but as projects move along the curve, we could well see quarterly increments to the valuation as more and more specifics are confirmed. I think from a sentiment perspective, this is pitched just right and will assist us. As a takeover target, at this stage, 2.2 as a base isn't a bad place to be in.
I have to ask, Why did TPI publish this report now? Are there set dates we should expect them or has this come out of thin air and possibly to cover no RNS yet.
I'm very curious.
BB. I agree with you. There is a dearth of news at the moment and the share price is starting to dip below the placing price. TP's report fills the gap, shores-up the placing price, and going forward allows many of the future RNS's to include the words "exceeding expectations". Good news should start flowing soon, but maybe not for another month or two.
GLA
Of course your standard-issue LSE conspiracy loon would propose that TP are trying to give their clients a few days to get in cheap before news lands...
We we get RNS after 4:30pm
or tomorrow at 7am.
Hopefully, we'll get great results. We've all seen how quickly UFO moves up
Approvals from MEXICO are well overdue too.
Lots of news to come and UFO will be above 2p soon.
Can we have a update Monday I want one last 2k top up tomorrow please please
Financial Engineering. I knew a friendly broker.
He was a pleasant bloke. If he had been less ignorant
I could not have gone broke. Keep smiling.
@Max if you scroll down the Turner & Pope note you will see under the Hammersley project it is indeed expected to produce between 75 & 240m tonnes.
The valuation for hammersley is based on 74m tonnes of iron ore @50% (37m FE) found. That’s the bottom end of the tonnage and probably the bottom end of the iron found too.
Hi Wolfy, the downside valuation for Hamersley is correct.
But for the upside valuation they should have used what they stated as the high case tonnes of 245 (not 150).
Therefore:
245,000,000 x 0.5 Fe = 122,500,000
x£8/t = £980,000,000
x0.2 (to discount 80%) = £196,000,000
x0.51 (our share – 49% Windfield) = £99,960,000
The upside value is considerably higher than what they have entered as £61.2M.
This means there is much more potential.
The SOTP Upside Valuation should be £121,660,000 not £82.9M.
They have missed £38,760,000!
Exactly Max - understand why it’s been done but if that’s really conservative figures things should be looking very positive in the near future