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I’m not one sided, but you’ve sent a lot of messages against Max. Sure he ramps this stock, but people need to stop chucking blame his way and take some accountability for their actions. He hasn’t lost anyone money, people have lost their own money. If they chose to invest based off what a stranger posted on a forum them more fool them.
Tacet, try extending your chart further into the past, you’ll find some more levels to look at.
Tacet …
1. As FG said, you should probably stop your campaign on Max
2. The last support hasn’t broken - not sure what you’re talking about
3. At this point I’m not going to rule out a drop to anything, but 0.2 to 0.1 is a substantial drop to predict
Just trying to find another positive spin here as the rest of the board is understandably very negative…
The two other points in time where alien (since it’s re-inception) has had chart patterns that look like capitulation (similar to now though we may fall a bit further, let’s see), the company:
1) 14 bagged in 3 months
2) 50 bagged in 6 months
Fingers crossed lads and ladies… haha
there should definitely be zero spend on exploration, expenses need to solely go into bringing han**** into production - any drilling especially at other projects i’m afraid to say would be moronic at this point.
the plus side is we now have about £3m as i understand it, so all these shouts about the company folding are a bit bogus at this point in time. i say this very begrudgingly as there isn’t really a positive spin, but the one thing you can spin to a positive is exactly that we won’t be bankrupt as a company in the next 9 months or so. so let’s revisit those claims then
The timeline hasn’t suddenly changed, the timeline before just became unrealistic with how long admin etc was taking.
Q1 2024 first shipment could happen, but a DFS won’t take long and it will provide us with a definitive decision on whether this is taken forward to production - they are standard procedure and mining operations shouldn’t really go ahead without them - recent drill results have put us in a position to progress to a DFS and upgrade the MRE.
I’d be concerned if first production was looking like being Q4 2024 but we’re not far off Q1 now anyway.
I get the frustration, I am experiencing it too but it’s your choice now to decide whether the market is now inefficient and incorrectly pricing this and time to buy, or whether you think this is a fair valuation and to hold, or whether you think it’s overvalued and time to sell. Nothing else ultimately matters.
I can see where some are coming from here, but anyone who knows this sector knows you need to run a DFS before going into production, and knows these take time. I think “the market” was already well aware it would likely be 2024 before we see production come online hence why things have drifted so far already.
The 16% down was the emotional bed wetters panicking when the operational news today was actually good. Impulsive move down caused by these people - whoever sold 3,000,000 at 0.38 would have made around 10% more if they’d waited. I’m not saying we’ll close green, but people love to panic in the Wild West of AIM.
A few people wetting the bed here, good luck to you. Though it’s not ideal by any stretch that there are a few board changes I’m not seeing any indication of Rod selling and I’m inclined to agree with others that we can expect some great progress in the next 3-6 months before he steps down into a consultancy role during which time we hopefully make a lot of money. Let’s see - the timelines align with when we should be in production, so I remain optimistic plus the operational update was pretty good.
I would say that material results and contracts signed are not just promises. Those are fundamental improvements. I didn’t mention the AA deal, because it isn’t a signed deal yet, though I believe that is very bullish for SP provided permits all come in okay which there’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t considering the operations going on around us.
Yes, in 2020 things overcooked and became overvalued including UFO for a time, during very loose monetary conditions. The opposite is currently true where I would suggest this is markedly undervalued - time will tell if I am correct but those free cash flow figures speak for themself.
Grzesiek, you’ve got to be kidding? “Nothing changed fundamentally” since 0.1p?
Do you not include:
- Extensive drilling at Han**** now with an MRE, well on its way to production, and strong potential to expand the resource?
- Some drilling at EH - I’m yet to see any exploration drill holes from a silver mine beat those grades in the last year
- The acquisition of Munni Munni - first time the tenement has been 100% owned by one single party for decades without legal battles etc
- Acquisition of vivash gorge
I don’t really need to go on to the smaller details… plenty has fundamentally changed. The fact that this is currently valued at £23m when free cash flow at current iron ore prices is likely to be in the region of $75m/annum is absolutely absurd to me. I will likely be topping up as a Christmas present to myself if it remains this low. What better gift?
IMP no one will ever have complete comprehension of markets or the cycles that unfold. They are all very different - the two most similar cycles to this one are the 1970-80’s inflation cycle and the 2007 - 2008 GFC. However, neither line up in their entirety - we have the inflation side of things from the 70’s/80’s and the modern monetary theory from the GFC with rates at the zero lower bound and QE/QT.
This time around though we have the combination of the two with added debt issues. Best thing to do is learn from every cycle - and formulate most likely policy decisions from that. I thought this would be similar to the GFC, and I also assumed higher inflation. What I didn’t factor in so much (and what has held the sector back and general markets back) was how aggressively central banks have responded, I thought they wouldn’t be able to what with the debt issue but they have given it a go.
We will see how it unfolds from here, but I’m of the opinion now that central banks can’t push it much further (and have probably pushed it too far) so we will soon see easing of financial conditions and a steep recession across most western economies in 2023.
Well said HH and Seingred.
Ultimately this is a kick in the teeth for sentiment and the realisation that this is going to be a slow returner with little strong news flow expected for quite a while now.
However, the resource at APTA is already worth more than the current market cap IMO, and early holes at Pepas suggest there could be a great resource there - it just needs to be understood better. It is absolutely sensible to pause drilling and re-evaluate future drill holes, rather than spending the $20m for phase 2 and wasting the majority of the budget on dusters because they hadn’t assessed the land as well as they could have.
I’ll continue to hold, though my timeline on an expected return will also be pushed back. GLA
The BOD and employees are very unlikely to be flipping shares (they account for 110m of the buys), the remaining 100m shares that went to existing shareholders may be flipped that remains to be seen, but if they are we are getting some good churn here.
This is good news, our relentless seller has finally gone as we head towards production so they won’t drag us down when the good news hits.
I was concerned about Artemis offloading in a few months when escrow ended and putting a dampener on the SP as production approached.
The fact that they sold at 0.3p seems a bit odd and desperate to me but that’s likely a reflection of their situation, not ours.
The directors sinking a load more cash is positive of course, and the transaction is now done and therefore priced in. Perhaps we require some churn now, perhaps not… time will tell but hopefully this selling is done and we can progress.
Looks good so far. GLA
I don’t like to go down this route, but in this case I do think (judging by the lack of trades) MM’s are moving the spread around to stir up a bit of volume… doesn’t appear to be working so far. Though I can confirm that the 625,000 at 0.3895 was a buy order set last week!
Thank you to those speaking sense. Anyone doubting, read the RNS’ and allow a couple of months error, those should be your expectations on a timeline.
H1 2023 we should be in production, as AllWinnersPaid very rightly said. Once permits are granted I imagine things come together very quickly - a road won’t take long to build, and the mining is being contracted to a third party who will just need to get their equipment on site.
For anyone who doesn’t understand the financials of it; capex being low is extremely appealing. We will be able to pay off the costs of getting the project up and running in less than a year which would clear our debts with AA very quickly. An IRR of 30% is considered good with regard to mining projects, the IRR for the Hanc0ck project is 112%. In addition to a low capex, our opex is low AND will likely be getting lower if we can get this deal with E25 finalised. Bear in mind a cost reduction of even $2/tonne would add $2.5m gross profit.
Also not sure how many of you are familiar with NPV calculations, but a couple of years extension to the mine life through an expanded resource would be pretty significant to our valuation, and is entirely feasible considering a large % of the tenement is still unexplored.
As others have said, look at the fundamentals rather than getting emotional over share prices. Disparity between the two creates opportunity for people to make a lot of money.
Silverhorse, with iron ore around $100, we’d be looking at revenues of $125 million and profits around $50 million… so double our current market cap if not more in annual profits. I think with China re-opening and more support for Chinese property market looking to come online the price of iron ore is likely to see moves to the upside rather than downside over 20223. If that doesn’t tell you all you need to know about how dumb current SP is, I don’t know what does.
I don’t like saying this because most of the time it seems like just an excuse for the drop, but looking through the trades, we dropped on very little volume, and despite now having more buys than sells we have somehow remained down 4%… Clearly someone or many people even are selling, but MM’s definitely have a hand to play in this likely trying to stir up a bit more volume as they do.
“Capitulation - to surrender or give up.
In financial circles, this term is used to indicate the point in time when investors have decided to give up on trying to recapture lost gains as a result of falling stock prices.”
Biker888 is a good example. Capitulation in some form of another often indicates a bottoming (or close to bottoming) share price.