+1 phil01. Though I would suggest that - particularly on AIM - sentiment plays a part in adding or subtracting 20% to today's share price on virtually any share. So, is EQT at fair value today ? On bottom line, yes probably. In terms of sentiment, probably not. Maybe 1.4/1.5p is around where PIs think it ought to be today.
The one thing I do find surprising is that we've seen three deals in the last few weeks - Italy x 1, Croatia x 2, with Southport taxiing for take-off. And the SP has languished. One whiff of less-than-great news has knocked 17% off.
Long term we'll see a recovery. But I must accept my own 3.5p end-of-year prediction is now looking "off".
To be fair, PaulQ, he has been calling it pretty much every day for months. And I'm grateful for that as it's been a tedious and frustrating little channel we've been stuck in.
Hope this is the ignition we've all been waiting for.
Agreed this is WAY undervalued now. While nothing is ever free from risk, STX is in the position of having done all the prep/spadework and now into the building momentum phase.
Early days and not expecting an immediate 'boom'. But today's 5% drop is silly on no news. Annoying for holders (but only if you want to sell today). Great news for topping up or establishing.
I thought I'd posted this earlier from mobile. But . . .
The price of natural gas has risen to incredible levels. Pretty soon we're going to need BOIL to fly just so we can afford to pay our energy bills.
Two observations: the price of natural gas is up about 120%+ in just three months. That means the potential value of BOIL's reserves have gone up in value (today) by about 120%. And yet until this week the share price had fallen by 15%, and even now remains at the lower end of its channel.
Meaning one of two things; 1/ we're significantly undervalued. Or 2/ that we are valued correctly today and the SP will be dragged lower if the gas price bubble bursts.
Obviously I'm hoping for undervalued (I'm about 18% under water right now) and the current MCAP of £9M seems just crazy given the hoped-for value of BOIL's gas deposits - even at this early stage.
It's been covered at length by others, but just the Shell involvement years ago, and Advance Energy's 95% chance-of-success drilling right next door go some way to de-risking Chuditch/BOIL.
Happy to wait. It'll make the win all the more delicious.
Anyone seen the charts for natural gas ?
Holy moly - we'll need BOIL to fly in order to pay our heating bills. Joking aside (not really joking), if current prices are sustained then the value of BOIL's potential reservoir has gone up by over 100% in just three months.
That's great for us potentially because the share price hasn't yet followed it. But be wary in case the price of the commodity falls and drags the SP.
All fun and games. Great month(s) ahead. Good luck all.
Also, welcome back, HfB.
Bit late to the party on this thread, but HH is absolutely no deramper. What utter nonsense to suggest that they are.
A cautious and sensible voice that quells the more excited amongst us (sometimes myself included - and I consider myself pretty level headed) ? Yes, absolutely. A deramper ? Ridiculous.
A deramper would post messages undermining confidence in company leadership, planting doubt about the material resources, pointing out that profit is taking a hit, etc
HH - got your back.
This is the key question - thanks for asking it Guerilla. I'm not a specialist in this area, and finding it increasingly difficult to fathom EUA's realistic value if they pursue "substantive sale" or if they opt to continue as an entity mining the stuff themselves.
Sensible/evidence thoughts wuold be very welcome.
It takes a lot more words - and expertise - to say what I effectively posted last night (ha ha !).
This is looking increasingly like a thoroughbred horse being marshalled into the starters gate. All it needs is Timon L'Este government to start the race, although progress could come from Peru and the UK.
@eddie - agree this is a fire-and-forget. I've described it before as a squirrels buried nut. And I hope my thought isn't perceived as deramping or fear or even negativity. A couple of months ago ZNWD doubled in value because it doubled the size of its interest. Nothing else materially changed, but - boom - up it went.
PM miners prices can fly if the value of their deposit increases on commodities.
BOIL has benefited from both of these factors and there seems no threat of a placing.
It's probably just a "market overlooking it" thing, but I wondered if I was missing something.
Current MCAP will be dwarfed as soon as any progress takes place.
Just had a thought. Interesting one ? Don't know. Probably not. But I'll post it anyway.
We're all confident that BOIL is sitting on a gazillion cubic feet of gas. Since April we've seen:
1/ No placing or immediate threat of a placing since raising £3M the month before (March)
2/ Chuditch /SundaGas interest increased from 33% to 85% and then onto 100%
3/ The price of natural gas increase by around 100%
Meanwhile the SP has fallen by around 30%.
This is either the bargain of the century or I'm missing something obvious. Always assume it's the latter. Welcome thoughts and negatives if they're backed by evidence.
Indeed. I suspect cs123 may have bought around 1.5p and be losing faith/patience. I mean, if you were fresh here you'd be looking at the current price and wondering what's the catch.
To be fair, I felt something similar for ECR until the last two days. Explorers can turn rapidly.
Not sure we'll have positive news here just yet. Seems a bit early to me (cue amazing RNS 7am tomorrow, of course).
Not to put a dampener on things but I'm not expecting any kind of sales/ops update for another couple of months yet.
Love to be pleasantly surprised, of course ! But for me this one is all about building your position now and then waiting.
Been a long day. So instead of trawling through 700 posts, can someone briefly explain today's rise ? Shorters evaporating ? A Whiff of news on the wind ? Leaky leak ? Someone finally put one and one together and realised the deal on the table with Rosgeo ?
If it serves to bolster morale, any seasoned veterans will know of days where the worst happened. And often within months the whole thing has turned around. The same could (could !) happen here.
From my own experience, AVCT I was in at £1.22. Targeted £2.50. Then Pfizer announced Covid vaccines in November and the SP fell from £1.70 to about 95p. Honestly, I sold in a panic. Within six months the SP was all the way up at my original target !
This last week has been brutal for many holders, and I sympathise - albeit from the comfort of having topsliced at 27p (lesson learned from AVCT and others). The choice now is whether to buy back in at current 8p, wait to see if it drifts and risk it picking up a bounce, or move onto something else.
Good luck all.
Firstly, it's "Absence". Secondly, look at the planned drilling schedule, which got disrupted by the broken drill.
4-6 months is not an accurate statement. The RNS states completion before November. That's 2.5 months tops.
I have similar views, but maybe not as sophisticated. :)
Having bought in at 37p, my plan is to hold for around a year, maybe two, depending on the speed of growth. If we can get to the £1.50 mark in the next 12-18 months I'll be perfectly happy.
Adoption likely to be slow initially, but if it works in real patients' lives as well as it does in clinical trials then it'll soon be the preferred prescription for doctors in many countries.
Nice post, BobbyAR. There has been simmering resentment here for a few weeks as news has failed to materialise. I think I'm of the same view as yourself - on balance there's slightly more likely to be good-to-excellent news dropping any day (or not until, say, late September). But in case there's really bad news, I've set a stop loss.
Unusual practice for AIM, I know, but I got hit hard on HE1 a week or so ago because I'd forgotten to set one, and lost virtually all I'd gained.