Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

Anyone else not seeing posts here on N4P ?
I made an innocuous comment yesterday evening that N4P was the sole beacon of blue in an otherwise horribly red day, suggesting there's solid sentiment in the firm at current prices. Today, the message has vanished.

Anyway, I stand by my comment, despite today's little dip.

Ha ha. Yes, I know what you mean, yayay.
But here's the funny thing about UFO. A few months ago the SP was at 1.15p. The TPI Research valuation at that time (February) was 1.3p. Downside. The Upside was double that.
Since then, this is what's happened:
1/ Silver tailings worth several £M to UFO are under investigation to see if they're commercially viable
2/ Hancook assays confirmed significant scale and quality of iron DSO
3/ Those assays derisked the smallest of the three iron-ore sites from 80% in the analyst's note to maybe somewhere around 40-50%. In other words, adding 30% to its value. And it's the smallest of three fields being explored by UFO.
4/ Awaiting JORC on the above (yes, not yet achieved, but expected and would be "priced in" if the price was in the high 2s)
5/ Commercial interest in Hamersley increased from 50% to 90% - near doubling the value of that site
6/ Maiden drilling at Brockman.
7/ Surface sampling of Andromeda increase the San Celso strike zone by 20%+ and confirm silver presence in this additional area
8/ 20 Priority targets identified at Elizabeth Hill, to include 7 with Platinum Group Elements and Silver/Nickel

Against that, the negative has been:
1/ Capstone withdraw from their project, putting a question mark over the Donovan site, but UFO's stance on it is that Capstone have missed something (well, they WOULD say that of course. So either Bill's bluffing. Or he's right)
2/ Delays to assays claimed to be caused by the overwhelming backlog of Oz analysis resources.

Now, I'm going to offer a "finger-in-the-air" price based on the assumption that the MCAP in February was£40M downside and £80M Upside. Given all the above, those figures might now be in the region of £60M downside and £100M upside. That includes the loss of the Capstone earn-in.

So, yes. I'm not worried. About 80% of AIM got paddle-slapped today. I noted on another board that you had to get to 47th on the list of Share Price Fallers before you found a <10% daily loss. That is NOT a good day. Puts UFO's 6% into context.
And soon/eventually the market is going to see the wave building up here with Alien Metals.

PS: I do know what sanguine means. My own comes from conviction in research.

Maybe there are. but the only other critical piece of advice I would offer is this: use the bulletin boards (like this one) but first learn who to pay attention to. you get idiots saying "Really cheap today, get in, it's about to take off" when it's been trundling long for weeks and news is due but it might be awful news (yes, I'm referring to one or two here on this board). You get A-hols who short your stock and will try to sow seeds of doubt and uncertainty. And you get experts who know their stuff and have been making good money for years. Spend time learning who's who. It can be terribly expensive to follow the advice of the first two groups. And even the third - the experts - get it wrong 20-30% of the time.

Oh, and if (IF) you've going to set a stop-loss on AIM then put it about 35% lower than your buy price. Maybe even lower. But most would advise against setting a stop-loss because the sudden volatility can mean your shares are sold exactly at the bottom of the market, just before it bounces up, and you're left nursing a huge loss trying to get back into the game.

If it helps anyone to feel better, I hold stocks in nine companies. Just one of them had a blue day today.
I averaged about 4 or 5% down today. And that includes HE1 which is supposed to be ramping up ahead of an anticipated major discovery (sorry - not cross-ramping. just adding context).
Markets took a thumping today, and EQT more than would be expected. Just look at the Top 5 Market Fallers today - three of them at -18%. EQT was 31st on the list. You have to get to 47th on the list to be under 10% down.

That looks like just one of those bad days to me.

Wow - these are crazy prices. I sound like one of those American ads with a waving inflatable behind me.
Shocker across the markets today. I just wish I had some money spare to add here. I'm averaged at 1.1p and it would be awesome to increase the size of the pot but bring the average down.

Being the old cynic, I see a thread of an excuse in that sentence, actually.
"Subject to . . . .timely receipt of development fees . . . " Gives our friends at EQT the option to externalise reasons for not being profitable. That said, I see the RNS overall as about 80% positive - much to savour in the announcement, and now we await delivery of the promise.

Like Seagulls said, I'm amazed you're red on HE1 and on ZNWD, since they're both just about at ATHs.
Reading between the lines, I think your timing is out. It would appear you're buying when the frenzy is in, and then not selling as it cools. The trick on AIM is to find a very good prospect, which takes time in research, and then buy while it's unloved. Since we're on HE1 board, let's take HE1 as an example. Floated in November. descended to an average channel of around 8p for a few months. Buying on a dip into the 7s was a great move. Then around April the action started. Lots will have joined on that excitement, but it required finding and buying at 7-ish to make the difference when top-slicing in the 20s.
That said, it's been a rocky few days on AIM. You'll soon be back in positive territory with the choices you've made.

There's a big risk this thread could turn into a cross-ramp-a-thon. But that said, yes I'm seeing similar. I keep trend info of my holdings for 3 months and see the portfolio took 8 consecutive days of losses until last Friday. Today, two out of nine in my portfolio are down 7% (STX) and 6% (ADV) on the basis of absolutely nothing. Both in completely different industries.

I don't know if this is an early sign of a macro shakedown of the indexes, or the influence of inexperienced investors, but it's clear there are a number of AIM shareholders blinking and shaking their heads mystified by recent movements.

I wish I'd waited a week before buying. I'm seeing many shares pummelled across AIM, but this and another of mine have taken a 6-10% drop on the basis of nothing. What gives ? Anticipated drop in oil price based on Covid's unstoppable march and impact on demand ?

It's just extraordinary, isn't it ! Anyone know if there's been a competitor's major announcement or a regulatory issue ?

Don't worry. tenpins will soon move on. There's too much reassurance in the RNS today about commercials and about R&D partnerships (the Hydrogen is of particular interest given the partnership with Toyota, imo). We may yet bounce along a 1.3-1.5p channel for a couple of months, but if the team at EQTEC can deliver as assured in the RNS then the accumulation of news will soon put 1-point-anything in the rear view mirror. And tenpins pointless opinion will be long forgotten.

bandicoot - I'm amazed you weren't immediately drowning in a sea of "yes, and where ARE these deals ?".
You make a great point. Either we're undervalued now or were overvalued before.

BUT we went from 1.15p up to 3.2 (intraday) in January. Suggesting that 1.15p was not overvalued at that time.
Encouraging to see the SP reaction to a Tweet ! Honestly, if that's an indication of the potential then it's as well to buy in now.

Well, not NOW. Because it's midnight.

Couldn't agree more with you about CINE, BigPlan. Last year I managed to ride a 30% bounce there, but long term there are major problems. Too much debt. Technology putting it at risk of being like Blockbuster stores. I love the cinema experience, but I think the future for cinema will be to specialise, downsize, and focus on the experience, rather than mass-market.

Anyway, great board here on HE1. I see SeagullsFan saying "bit of a lull" which made me smile because I was going to say we're in that awkward doldrums stage where there's not much to chew over, and we're all just waiting for the action to start. It's a bit like the start of a battle, waiting for the artillery to fire.

If ADV does an HE1, Milcait, I'll be delighted. I got in there under 7p. Derisked at 26p. And that's before the real fun/tragedy starts.
And while I'm about it, can I ask Goldensharewolf to have a look across my portfolio. Brilliant summary. Thanks again.

Indeed SamBar. I expect we'll have a couple of quiet months before any early commercial update. So I'm not expecting any fireworks for the foreseeable. But then, my horizons are not under my feet; I'm already up 20% and looking to hold here for a year, maybe two.

haa ha - I like that V111JAS.

And thanks Dave_1. I thought it was just MY portfolio. :)

Beware false prophets, folks. Or is it false profits ? Both !
Oz, mate, you can't just enter the room, drop a happy-bomb and then leave. I'll criticise a deramper for doing similar. Post your supporting evidence, for crying out loud. :)
I'd love for you to be right, particularly for those who feel burned after buying in February. And I think we'll soon be heading North East on the charts soon. It'll just take two announcements of commercial progress; one to support the foundations, and the second to bring the excitement.
Good luck all.

I'm not invested here (yet) but ZNWD def on my shortlist. I feel your pain. I have two similar holdings which just defy all reason and are about half where they ought to be (as in the market's just not seeing the painfully obvious).
The recent week has not helped either.
I had thought I'd missed the Zinnwald bus as it zoomed upward a couple of weeks ago. But as someone not invested here and no axe to grind, I believe I'll miss it for a second time because I won't be able to release funds in time. It will most likely recover and quite quickly. Certainly if it dips as far as 16-point-anything, I think I'd sell elsewhere to buy in here.
Good luck all.

Price dipped. Toe dipped. I'm in at a smidge under 2.5. I look forward to sharing the journey with you for a while.

Yep. Thanks Goldensharewolf and CleanMyWhip. That looks tremendously positive. I think I'll dip a toe.