Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

Absolutely. Market usually much smarter than us PIs (me, especially !) :)
But the SP could suddenly leap on the back of one (of two) MTA partners taking the next step, and that's what "the market" is not seeing.
I think we're seeing the same thing but from slightly different angles.

@sightwatcher: "market thinks the Nuvec’s implementation is quite far away".
I think you're right here. Sometimes the market gets it wrong. This time, I think there's hesitance either because there's still quite some time until commercial implementation, or because some assess there's high risk that the MTAs will fail to progress. From the RNSs, it would appear that formulation and loading have improved, and the company is better placed to advise its MTA partners on how their plasmids can be applied, and if the MTAs deliver the goods then a licensing arrangement or formal collaboration would likely include an advance payment, enabling N4P to jump the gun commercially.

I think late November we'll see a spate of operations updates as the in-vivo and in-vitro studies culminate over the Q4 and into 2022 period. It's certainly going to be a wild ride.

I like two things this week on UFO.
Firstly there's over 130 comments so far today and the trades still outnumber the posts.
Secondly, we've not flown up sharply. Rather gradually but consistently climbed each day. That's much more solid in terms of trading volatility, and suggests a lean towards investors instead of traders.
Have a top weekend.

I think we have the same approach, nursesteve.
I had HMSO at 16.8p. Absolute steal. Up to 38p. Sold.
Definitely back on my shortlist because it's been sideways for months and fundamentals look good. Iirc, the NAV would be worth an SP of about 65p, so definitely room to move upward.
I doubled my N4P stake a fortnight ago. I reckon November will be the news month here.

Silver back above $24/Oz today.
Iron sneaking up to $123.

It's all looking pretty good here, isn't it.

@Sharetime43. Would there be a decent return ?
Let's very quickly review what's been revealed.
Something like an 8-year lifespan, making around $70M profit per year. Profit that can be used to fund all future activities.
Hancook reflects a small fraction of what UFO believes it is sitting upon; as yet totally unproven, so anything could happen, but negative estimates place the remaining iron ore at five-times the volume that is known. So if we apply negative numbers (30M tons DSO at $100p ton across a 20-year mine life) we'd see something like an additional $60M profit per year. That's a total of $130M profit per year. On a company with current market cap of £25-£30M.
And then there's Elizabeth Hill, San Celso, possibly still Donovan, plus whatever else UFO can acquire and gain permission to explore.
The decent return will require patience. But the return will be decent indeed

Classic. I watched the SP move in seconds from 6.9% up to 10%, then 12%, then leapt up to 17% up.
I posted a positive comment.
Within seconds, it slipped to only 10% up. Sigh.

Doesn't matter. We have confirmation of the resources and a hugely profitable plan to market. Happy.

Phenomenal response on the markets. Finally seeing what many of us have expected.

Goodness, Dulyred. Will EUA ever actually get on with it ? Like you, I've been waiting for that one to pop so I can invest profits here and a couple of others. Good luck to you.

Surprised not to see a flurry of posts claiming manipulation by market-maker. I've seen similar behaviour many times and put it down to nerves on the part of the most risk-averse. Can't be many stop losses triggered within 10% of the top of the recent channel.

Genuine Lol.

Gentlefolk, I do apologise.
One of my thoughts when selecting a company to invest in, or to keep-holding, is to imagine one day ALL my portfolio shot up by 50%. Which of them would I say "Well, that was obviously going to happen ?"
Yesterday I voiced my opinion on another LSE board that STX will, in hindsight, prove to be so obvious that it was going to fly. Today we've slipped under my original purchase price, on absolutely no news. I have to therefore accept the blame lies with me. I have the same effect on sporting occasions. Tune in, confidently assert "should be a good one for us" and then watch my team dismantle themselves.

On a more serious line - I agree with those saying this is a 2022/23 share. Buried nut to be dug up in a couple of years. Continue accumulating now.

I should add that I may be considerably wrong. We'll know in the next 6-12 months.

Okay, I did say UFO was in my top three "Well obviously !" shares. I've set myself up to be asked. Sorry.

The other two are ADV (probably already on everyone's radar or portfolio) and STX.
The latter has a dreadful recent history of indecision on a critical approach to market. But it's got the patent awarded a couple of years ago on an oral-delivery treatment (Ferracru) for iron deficiency which compares in efficacy with injection, but obviously massively more convenient and cheaper to administer than a jab = more efficient and more profit for the prescriber. And it's out in the market already. So far official governmental approvals extend to USA as well as China, South Korea, Europe, and Australia. It's only just started marketing to the USA despite FA approval in the summer of 2019 (see my note about indecision !). Made a HUGE placing of £27M early in 2021 to fund the US sales. A year ago the SP was at £1.20. Post placing it was at 34p. It's been up to 60p a couple of months ago and now at 40p and just sitting there waiting for a positive commercial update.
Analyst has them targeted at about £2.30, and expected to be profitable in 2023 (I think). There may be a placing next year to continue funding the US campaign. But much depends on income from other territories. Still risk in there, of course !! No such thing as risk-free on AIM. But it's one that I look at and imagine in a year if the SP is at (say) £1.30, I would be saying "Well of course it is !"

Right - enough cross ramping. Have a good evening, folks.

Thoughts ?
Now, I'm all for a critical voice based on genuine evidence - or opinion based on experience of similar circumstances. But your post is riddled with factual inaccuracies. You yourself pick up on what is clearly the meat of your argument; your broken phone meant you mis-read $3.7M as $700K. We all make mistakes. But . . .
UFO is still a multi-asset exploration firm - nothing at all has changed there: iron, silver, copper, nickel, and zinc are all still in the portfolio across five different sites in three different countries.
"One could argue that the company is still overvalued when you compare to its peers" (you get a bonus point for proper punctuation, btw !). At £25M MCAP and an inferred resource of 10Mt of iron (at circa £20 profit per ton - estimates vary) in a region rich in iron, but only 25% of the area tested suggests £25M MCAP is significantly under-valued. Often Fenix is offered as a comparator. Fenix is valued at c£50M.
Earlier this year Turner Pope valued UFO at downside £40M, and that was before the huge increase in its biggest asset. With a combined lower risk profile and a much larger stake in Hammersley, UFO's MCAP ought to be somewhere in the £50M to £90M range right now. In my view, right at the bottom of that range: £50M until Elizabeth Hill tests are published.
Incidentally, in that report 7 months ago, TP valued Donovan at between £9M and £11M of MCAP. So Capstone's retreat is maybe not the big hit - though I'd agree that the earn-in agreement provided significant reassurance financially so long as it existed.
That said, the c£2.5M in the bank is plenty for a full year (at current burn of c£1.2Mpa) so there would seem to be no immediate threat of a placing.

Those thoughts useful to you, at all ?

@ Trek - a big genuine thanks for your time and generosity over the last year, in sharing your approach and insights. I see you're switching strategy to dividend-rich FTSEs and away from the wild west AIM.
Thanks to you I've done nicely on TXP and managed to get into HE1 at 6.9p.
So thank you Trek. Don't be a stranger !

Last year's 3p was largely fuelled by hype on silver and the JV with Capstone.
This year we had a couple of RNSs that were "unhelpful" to the share price: the abandonment of the silver tailings, and Capstone walking away. Also the iron ore price has plummeted. However, while the price of the commodity has roughly halved, our stake in the tenement has roughly doubled. Nil-sum (ish) equation.
As DRB83 points out now we have Hancook confirmed at 10.4Mt. Even at current prices, a slim profit of 10% on it would equal £100M. And the mid August RNS states that the Western Ridges is expected to "deliver a zone to contain a second potential resource". With only 15% mapped/drilled/explored there is very likely to be much more to come (though I appreciate this is moving into speculation territory). The increase of UFO's interest from 50% to 90% seriously increases the potential win here. Plus Brockman.
Then there's Elizabeth Hill with an RNS to come in soon on the initial sample analyses.
And we're still at £27M MCAP.

One of the questions I ask when investing in AIM is "In 6-12 months' time, if all of my shares rocket, which would I say were obvious in hindsight ?" UFO is in my top 3 for that question.

It's like watching a chess match unfold over a couple of years; MTA here, Patent there. Things seem to be lining up nicely and the next year could be very exciting. I certainly timed it sweetly (this time !) by doubling my holding two days ago.

Dickie - good points.
For me, in particular is both the cash position and operating costs. The reassurance of no placing for ages (unless fundamental change in strategy) should draw the hesitant to commit.
All looking very positive.

If he does, luckyorange, I wish he'd shake that jar at an investor's meeting, or take it to the bank.
Been a lot of encouraging RNSs and activity, but very little in terms of a sustained bounce into the 2s.
I know. I am impatient. :)