Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

Really solid advice from Bigun2.
Either sell now at a loss, wait for a bounce, or hold because the RNS was threaded with positives for longer term.

Anyone know what happened to Saint-tropez ? Been around for ages, most recently active here on ADV, and now done a Keiser Sose.

Hi vinnie.
Your first question is the big one. Not sure anyone really knows (this side of an RNS).
Second one's a little easier to answer. the analyst target is around £2.50 - but with no sense of timescale. Kind of drawing a line based on experience, I would imagine we'll be at around the £1 mark next summer/autumn.
Company called Norgine have the licence to sell in Europe and have not set the world on fire with their results.
IIRC, they hope to line up a company for South Korea to sell in that region and hope to have confirmed federal approval in China (prior to sourcing a licensee to sell it there).
The big ticket item is the USA where they're targeting the medics who sign off 70% of iron-deficiency treatments. I honestly think initial take-up will be a little slow but then will expand very quickly as trust grows and medical professionals realise they can solve their patient's problem AND reduce burden of having to administer injections. First year we might see slow progress but accelerating quickly in 2022/23. Like Sonic the Hedgehog on Mario Olympics. Not exactly scientific analysis, and this is all conjecture on my part, btw.

I hope you're right TC (although that seems harsh on asiddall). Maybe you called it right - a little drop below the round-numbered 30p, prior to news ? Seen it before. We'll soon know. Goodness knows we're overdue some damn news.

Wents. Don't be an offensive fool. The Capstone earn in was terminated in June. Reasons cited a change in their priorities as well as not finding what they'd hoped in early stages of the project. Snacks of financial risk Mgmt to me. The UFO mcap fell from c£33m to £25m. That was in June Since then the constantly positive sequence of news has not moved the mcap back up despite significant steps forward and considerable reduction of risk in Hancook. The silver tailings might - MIGHT - have mitigated need for a placing but presumably the terms could not be reached favourably for both parties. So not necessarily a negative (no deal is better than a bad deal).

So take your condescending attitude and keep it to yourself.

Thanks Cidermaker - that's saved me 20 minutes going back to check myself.
I think one or two announcements in the next week will do the trick. Most holders now with very sticky fingers, so a sudden leap is probable on good news.

I feel exactly the same, letitbeme2. With the exception of the fund-raise, there hasn't been a negative RNS for months. Look at the sequence:
1/ Drilling commences at EH
2/ Han**** shaping up to be standalone DSO (with only 15% of the tenement tested so far)
3/ Visible silver during drilling at EH, plus evidence of "much larger" system containing copper, nickel, and PGE
4/ Confirmation of 10.4Mt of iron
5/ Acquisition of 30% of Munni Munni
6/ Creation of IOCA company to progress Han**** and Brockman from exploration to a mining lease

I'm absolutely astonished that we've not yet pulled forward on the SP, and still languish below placing price.
As TrekMadone would say (a far greater investor then I am), placings are not always a bad thing - depends what the money is being used for. in this case it's progressing three projects up the value chain. UFO is an absolute bargain right now and I think it's a matter of a few weeks until the market watchers start to publicise it.

Hall123 - I am not deramping here, but your comment is one I've seen in several other holdings in the past and sadly a delay is absolutely no prediction of good news. HE1, ECR, RMS all delayed an anticipated RNS and it turned out to be grim. On the other hand UFO and VAL are examples where the SP flew.

In this case, we can only speculate as to whether the delay is due to continuing negotiations on a commercial partnership, or N4P carefully wording their damage limitation.

Sorry - that DOES seem deramping. Not intended, as I have been a holder here for over a year. Anyway the answer will be imminent and there's nothing we can do but speculate.

I'll be honest, I'm stunned the mcap is still at this level. A year ago it was 30% under the most negative valuation made by TP
Since then we have seen the earn-in agreement ended. But we're also on an inferred resource worth $1Bn of iron, and making headway with Munni munni and EH, and moving inferred to indicated (further derisk). None of that seems priced into the mcap.

Meant to say also that Hardman's valuation of £2.81p is informed speculation. But let's say that maybe in the next year it's a reasonable assumption that the share price will reach 1/3rd of that valuation. That's triple where we are now.
And, if covid is absorbing all general healthcare practitioners in the dispensing of vaccines by syringe, then doctors, hospitals, and med centres are probably crying out for Accrufer as a means to meet demand for a simpler, oral delivery of iron-deficiency treatment.

Analyst notes should be taken with a pinch of salt, but it's worth remembering Hardman's valuation a couple of months ago.

"DCF-modelling each of the three main income streams – the US, Europe and China – generates an NPV, which, summed together, gives an EV for the group of $852m/£608m, or 281p per share. The current share price clearly applies a hefty discount for the execution risk associated with Accrufer."

Obviously there's no time period defined there, and who knows if another placing will be needed mid 2022 to fund continued market penetration. But even back in August Hardman's summary concluded: "The market seems overly worried about the “apparent” slow start, but any news on sales traction and/or the signing-up of payors should act as a catalyst to narrow the valuation disconnect."

I've always suspected that the sales traction will take 6-12 months to build. We're five months in. That 'valuation disconnect' may begin to close in the next few months. Keep holding imo.

Apologies, Hall123. I didn't see that. Always happy to be corrected.
Let's look forward to good news coming up.

Not disagreeing, star.
But be mindful that the RNS says "commencing this month" (ie: Sept), not the use of past tense. So it may have started on the 29th, and be concluding now but with another two weeks' analysis.
Sorry - sounds like I'm being negative, and I'm not. Just want to temper expectations to prevent angst if there's not an RNS by Friday.
Having nearly doubled my N4P holding a few weeks ago, I'm trying hard not to get too excited myself !

Yes, I think "patient" is the keyword here. STX is one of two or three I have where it's doldrum time (N4P and HMSO, for the curious). It makes things simpler when you're just in 'wait mode'. I suspect we'll sit in the mid 30s for a bit and then bounce up or down depending on USA progress. But either late 2022 or even into 2023 this will have bagged several times, imo.

Ha ha. That's funny. I logged onto LSE to scan posts on my holdings. As I typed "N4P" in the search, I saw 3 comments and thought "It's so quiet. This will go ballistic if there's an RNS tomorrow confirming a step towards a commercial partnership".

Sometimes there's a lot of word-of-mouth buzzing around leading up to an RNS. In this case it could land at any point.
Just gotta be patient. I've said it before - and we don't know what the next steps will be on either MTA - but these quiet days are the times to accumulate.

Relative to you I arrived recently. So did most others, as will many more. I admitted I hadn't done exhaustive research, but simply asked a couple of questions based on recent RNSs and voiced an opinion that a raise was unlikely given rising income. There's no need to be aggressive.

Yes, hopefully today's news will churn through the 10% profit brigade quickly, and we can begin moving up to more realistic value considering the resources in the ground.

Thanks Scot22 and Monkey Junky. bit harsh from the latter tough. I hadn't seen the twitter updates, and was only going by official RNSs. Really good to see that reassurance, and in case anyone suspect I'm a subtle deramper, I can assure I am invested here. My timing was impeccable. Bought at 82.3p about three days before the shorters cleared off. But I must confess, I was opportunistic this time and hadn't researched TXP deeply - I saw a suppressed SP, and the potential for news flow. GLA.

I've seen a regular beat of operational updates and just thought to highlight a few points to consider in the months ahead.
Coho pipeline mentioned in 13th Aug RNS as commencing in Sept, and in the 25th May update as requiring around 60 days to complete the 3km construction. There's been no confirmation of it going ahead, but if it DID start in Sept then we're due news on it very soon.
The Environmental Impact Assessment of Cascadura is anticipated to be submitted in the next 6 weeks (RNS on 13th Aug states: "by the end of 2021". That will hopefully clear large bureaucratic hurdle but we may need to be prepared for additional work to be done to appease the authorities. Anyone got thoughts on how this is likely to play out ?

Also I've seen chat today about a potential raise, but I'm not sure it would be necessary. Production at c1,400bopd and price of Brent crude is up $15-$20 up on the $59pb sales posted in the 13th Aug update (which produced netback of $26).
With increased income just from the price of oil, and still $12M loan facility to tap into, I can't see why the move to production can't be funded by debt which can be paid within months of Royston/Coho/Cascadura coming online.

Of course, this is all just second guessing. I'm not sitting there with the FD poring over the cashflow position.
Anyway, the next quarterly update must be imminent, so we'll soon know more about these things.

Because the iron ore will evaporate, right ?
I would also like to see the SP rising to reflect the operations and scale of value of the tenements, but it takes time. News on EH due soon. Then progress on Hancook expansion in the new year ?