Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

You've probably heard it before, but I love the joke about Dr Schrodinger being pulled over by the police who inspect his vehicle. One of the officers opens the boot and says "Hey, do you know you have a dead cat in here ?" And Schrodinger replies "Well NOW I do !"
Not sure that kind of defence would hold up in court, but hey. Anyway, back to good ol' N4P . . .

Was it something I said ??? Lol.
If mid 50s was a great entry point then 50, or anything below, will prove to be a bargain.

Yes, because the government is all for regulation of markets. Oh no, wait. The opposite.

Don't get too het-up if it's not tomorrow. It's tempting to have a 4-week count-down because that marker was offered in the RNS, but sometimes these announcements get delayed because of a variety of reasons: negotiating terms of an agreement, legal proof-reading of the RNS itself, etc.
If there is a delay it can be good or bad news - Schrodinger's RNS - and we won't know until it's out in the open.

yes the modest response so far this morning is odd. I think the spud was definitely priced in, and then followed by a lot of de-risking. I had thought today's RNS confirming presence of He in the mud samples would trigger a return of the deriskers. Sometimes these things are delayed and the wider market catches on. Remember, this is still seen by the wider market as a high risk investment.

Crikey - that's a rather mean spread at 9%+ ! Reflecting slow liquidity, or MM's uncertainty ?
I've been pleased with STX since joining the fun at 38p. Performed better these last couple of months than I'd anticipated. And the best bit is, that the commercial news will start to come through in a few months making the mid 50s seem like a great entry point. Looking forward to seeing where the SP is in a year's time.

Should we start a new thread ? The title seems a little unfair given the content has gone way past the original poster's intent.

naaah sdg1970.
It definitely dinked past 24p on intraday, as I remember celebrating a triple-bag. Alas too soon. For now. :)

@UncleJim: I actually only ever placed two bets in my life. Sugar Ray Leonard to go past the fourth round Vs Marvin Hagler, and England to win the Ashes in 2005.

FWIW, I would NOT be putting anything on Scotland today. But then I wouldn't have put anything on Buster Douglas either. Have a good weekend, all.

UncleJim you've written pretty much the same opinion that I hold. And UFO is my second largest holding.
Current SP is disappointing - after a stream of positive news the price had barely wavered; one negative and it drops 25% - but the DSO at Hamersley is worth a LOT either through JV or by becoming a small producer. So, I accept the money is tied in for 2021 and probably 2022, but I'd expect to be pulling out 5-10 bags in that time. Maybe more depending on other news.
In other words, if I wait 18-24 months I get a free new car. Probably. :)

That said, even I am wondering what the hell is going on with HE1 shares. Seriously ? Delivered everything promised on time, with good comms throughout. Drill in the ground days ago, and the SP falls 25% ??! If this reverses it's going to bounce REALLY hard because of the scale of the potential reward.

@Kevinround - just speaking as a critical friend, maybe this kind of investing isn't right for you. There are much safer alternatives such as the main FTSE100/250. AIM is a very much more volatile place where losing 30% honestly happens quite regularly. Back in February I think I lost about 25% in the course of 18 "down days" compared to 2 "up days". Six weeks later my portfolio was at an all-time-high. As you'll have gathered, HE1 is a risky investment and it sounds like you got spiked about a month ago. So now you either sell at current price and crystallise a small loss, or stay in the game and gamble on a big win/loss. It's not easy, is it ! Good luck to you, but maybe take a step back and think about what's the right kind of investing for you. Hope that's not too patronising; intended as solid advice.

if it makes you feel better, Rayski, you've a much better price than me. And I'm not worried. This will either chug along in the 0.065 - 0.085p channel for a year, or it'll blow the blimmin' doors off. Good luck to you.

Yes, that's how I see it. If nothing happens at Chuditch then today's RNS holds no value. If Chuditch takes off then we've gained and everyone wins; the whole thing hinges on progress.
Basically the same rule applied to pretty much every company on AIM.

It's a very strange person who either constantly undermines a company in which they hold shares or - even more weird - spends their time posting negative comments on the bulletin board for a company they don't hold shares in.

I'm keen to understand Tymers' motivation. But then I always found clinical psychology fascinating.

I was interested by wentsland's post this evening explaining why he remains holding UFO: "Because the DSO might be a hit eventually and the CEO might change who knows. Remember Max i said i was in until the bitter end"

Thinking about that "bitter end" I see broadly three scenarios:
1/ let's call it "dustville". Every time UFO sinks a drill into the ground it comes up blank. Your exit plan is decided for you and you lose some/a lot/all of your money.
2/ let's call it "ad-infinitum" things drag on interminably and the SP remains in a 0.9p to 1.3p channel for the next three years. Eventually frustration beats patience and you sell at current price (ish).
3/ let's call it "first class ticket to the moon, please". DSO comes up trumps either via JV or by being a small producer (by way of a dilution), the SP rockets up to (say) 10p.

The thing is scenario 1 (dustville) is already totally improbable because of the confirmed assays at Hancook. So you're either in "ad-infinitum", in which case you might as well sell today and put your money where you feel it will grow more rapidly or with less risk than a junior exploration mining company. Or you're in scenario 3, sitting in the first-class seat of a train that's waiting to leave the station. In which case, enjoy that warm feeling, and wait for those happy days to come.

Not really directed at wentsland - my reference to you was inspired by that "bitter end" comment - but just a thought for the BB users who may feel impatient.

Can someone wake up valtree ? I'd hate for him to miss today's excitement.

So far as I can tell, Pandy2, it really is a case of news-driven (or in this case news non-driven) sentiment. No event has derailed EQT. A small placing a couple of months ago to fund new projects. EasyGroup have surfaced as a semi-competitor (which could be great news in terms of overall market attention) but EQT has the proven tech/IP.
It's really just waiting for these projects to be signed and announced. I think the first will stabilise and then a second relatively soon after will really add fuel. IMO.

I think there are a number of elements in this drill (and each one after), of which confirming Helium presence and %age content are the key two. There's also the trap and seal. So it's going to be tricky to simply put a number on it (sorry, keep-it-real).
If they confirm HE but the geology doesn't allow a seal or development to production then the SP could bounce up to the 25-35p level; there's a certain de-risk by confirming helium is sitting there waiting to be extracted.
If they come back with confirmation of HE, samples at (say) 6% content, and that the seal is easy then it could be a very lively week. 60p ? 80p ? £1.20 ? 40p ? As Trek (for it is he) pointed out a few weeks ago, positive news at Tai would then fund everything else. So it's not easy to foretell how the market would initially react. Could go insane. Could act more cautiously.
If we knew for certain then this game would be easy and we'd all meet up to compare our supercars at Monte Carlo.

Am I right in believing this is where ECR having their own drilling equipment pays dividends ? The ability to mobilise quickly and cost effectively should shorten that gap from initial surface sampling to deeper samples, shouldn't it ?