Member Info for Pickuzawinnah

ha ha bigbench. I was just about to reply reactively, and then realised you're joking.

I know what you mean about frustration, Bishop. Remember to act like Spock and keep emotions out of it.
I think several of us are frustrated because we're in with the in-crowd. We read the UFO RNS and see things like "preliminary assay results received on all samples from the Phase 1 drill and, once QA / QC is completed and reviewed, we look forward to updating the market as soon as possible" and we feel confident that it's going to be very positive. Why doesn't the market respond accordingly ?
Simply because the wider market isn't scouring the RNS in the same way we are, and UFO will only catch the wider eye when the RNS says something like "exceeds expectations", or "in commercial discussions with several potential partners" (etc). I've expected much better response from the last three RNSs and felt we really ought to be around 1.6/1.8p at current level of intel.

In other words, this is the time to either load up (because we're more optimistic and more keen observers of the data) or sit on hands smiling quietly to yourself in anticipation of the latter half of the year.

EUA managed similar growth (0.5p up to 37p in 12 months = 64 bags)
As did GGP (1.6p up to 37p in 12 months = 20+ bags)
And in fact HE1 is up 300% (6.95p up to 21p) so far.

I know I can be accused of soft-hearted sentimentalism but . . . I think it's interesting that HE1 has made a big point of community engagement and minimising environmental impact in Tanzania.
Remember, these are activities which take time and energy and resources and they aren't strictly required. But they DO help in terms of creating political momentum and again suggests the belief HE1 has in their journey. What I mean by that is if they're out for a quick buck and it felt speculative to the BoD then they wouldn't bother with the additional "nice fluffy stuff". But by taking this approach they indicate a longer-term relationship, which may reflect how they're expecting things to play out.

It just feels different, this one. Know wot I mean ?

So far HE1 has delivered on everything on time. I think they'd have updated the market - or posted a Tweet - if there was a material change like a 1-month delay. Probably a spelling mistake or mix-up between spud versus initial results date.

Agreed - all that's needed now is to manage expectations and deliver updates which match the promises for a steady, generally upward-moving SP.

After the recent news flurry, any thoughts on what we'll see next ?
Recruitment of 30 sales people expected to be complete early/mid June
Launch stocks of Accrufer in US distribution warehouses around mid June
US Update RNS stated "There are still some critical dependencies on third parties including companies setting up services for us and Government agencies which could potentially disrupt our planning. However we are currently on track for the US launch by the end of June 2021"

Already seen a 70% rise from this year's low. Still a way to go yet.

Happyhaddock - you are the anchor here. You speak a great deal of sense, so please hold that line.
I know I veer into excited territory from time to time (hey, I'm no Silverhorse, but then who is ?) and will bat away any deramper who doesn't support their stance with any evidence (Chris2).
Your posts keep my/our feet on the ground. So far the story from Bill/UFO has been almost consistently delivering what's expected. But you're right to maintain a guardedly positive approach.

Yes. yes exactly, 944Turbo: " It changes significantly when when we quantify the DSO tonnage."
At the moment we stand to gain 90% of the value, but that value is undetermined.

A new valuation research note with a fair target price might galvanise things.
To my mind, if TP had valued a risked Hamersley at c£60M, then a slightly derisked (60% discount reduced to 40%) plus an additional 40% value (Windfield), plus a 30% increase in iron ore value/ton then Hammersley right now should be valued at circa double what it was.
Up the value curve indeed !

Agree with you delboy. Today's announcement is significant. The market hasn't responded accordingly because it's not absolute confirmation of clinical results. But the three things that stand out for me are:

1/ the MTAs are with organisations in totally separate fields which gives us two bites at the cherry from a clinical efficacy perspective: gene-therapy, and Covid vaccination (I'm almost tempted to delete the word "Covid" because while this MTA is specifically about Covid, it's more the potential of confirming effectiveness of vaccine delivery and convenience of storage/administration).
2/ Further MTAs can be announced, and snagging interest from a couple can easily lead to a couple more.
3/ Evotec: "we remain more optimistic as to the outcome following the results seen in the pilot study". More optimistic. Suggesting increased optimism. Perhaps they're delaying results until they're fully validated but now believe they'll exceed initial expectations.

Which means the summer/autumn is likely to include several positive steps forward. Maybe even a collaboration with one of these mystery partners. So, not rocketing today, but for me the wording of the RNS de-risks N4P in 2021.

HA HA HA HA HA ! Classic timing on my part. Thanks Max111.

I tell you one thing - the next Turner Pope valuation analysis is going to be markedly different !

Think about what's not in their February research note which valued UFO at just about where it is now:
1/ De-risking of exploration (they acknowledge their 60% risk discount on Hamersley was "aggressive" and will be reduced quite a bit)
2/ Today's news about Windfield which increases the value of Hamersley to UFO by 40% and with two directors on the board increases our influence.
3/ Silver Tailings at EH
4/ The assays from Hancook/Hamersley, which are imminent.

Earlier this week I listed the anticipated newsflow here and mentioned a wildcard. Today's news is the definition of a wildcard and I think it works very much in our favour. Next up, final assays at Hancook. Then a new Turner Pope analysis.

In my early morning fogged mind, I think you've got a point Starbright. The owners could cash in at any time and for any reason. 200M is a lot of shares to churn if they dump. But it's insignificant in comparison to the potential value just created in this deal. We may have just added something like 30-50% to the value of the company (time will tell about the actual value of Hamersley in balance will all other UFO mines) in return for 6% of the shares.

And further MTAs possible.
This is an excellent update, expect the SP to tank. Lol. Just joking - sometimes AIM can leave you baffled but I doubt it today.
The formulation increases the efficacy of the dose (potentially reducing costs for pharma partners), they've taken on a full time lab specialist (that will accelerate things), and of course the MTAs themselves are in quite diverse areas (potential proof-of-concept in two significant fields).

The only downside is the Evotec results being delayed but even then Nigel sounds bullish on its improvements.

By "overlooked", do you mean overseen ? Or ignored ? Funny how a single word can have almost exact opposite definitions.

Hey, stw010 - I know you're quite positive on EQT and, like me, post here from time to time. I just checked and on the 8th Feb you predicted the following end of 2021 SP: "If I haven't missed the boat....put me in for 6.2" and you expected a rocky ride through the year but a more positive 2022. At the time 6.2p was right at the low end of the predictions* and I think the exact same as my own estimate.
I've also seen this as a company that should perform okay in 2021 but really break out in 2022 and on that basis now is the time to get in (ideally a year ago was perfect, as bandicoot points out !).
I think I'm reducing my 2021 prediction to 4.5p and end 2022 to 9p.

* for "predictions" read: "mainly crazed ramblings"

Shouston, the next Capt Tom ???
Funny old day on the intraday. Drop. No move. Low all day. No move. UP !
Still, encouraging to see the news earlier this week from the IEA hasn't dampened sentiment.

I don't know Magoo - more of a botplug, in my opinion.

Firstly, let's not entertain this conspiracy BS. At the risk of sounding patronisingly dull, it's a BB about UFO.

Secondly, I was trying to map out (not you, mapp! You're good) a likely sequence of announcements earlier today. Here's what I think will be coming through in the next 3-6 months. I may have missed something - which is another positive sign that there's a great deal going on concurrently.

Hamersley/Hancook Part 2 - the sequel ! The remaining 37 holes which Bill described as being the ones they're more interested in. Might add significantly, might disappoint. We'll know in the next 7-14 days. Could be a JV announced in its wake. Or they could make the decision to become a small producer. Either way, good news.

Elizabeth Hill - Tailings. 60-day exclusivity with Wombat has now expired. Should have an announcement updating the market on outcomes imminently ? Like, last week ? So, hopefully very soon.

Donavon 2 - Copper and Gold assay results to be announced as soon as they are available; drilling started in January, so should be reaching a conclusion in the next couple of months.

Brockman - (7-45Mtons of iron) surface sampling and mapping of new ground should be announced in the next month or two ("couple of months' time" from March, but allowing for delays)

Elizabeth Hill - seven (of 20) high priority targets for PGM/Silver. Announcement on drilling/permits late summer ?

San Celso/ Los Campos - environmental drilling permits should be coming through by end of year. Autumn ?

Throw in a wild-card unexpected RNS about acquisition of a new site, or disposal, and there's likely to be a steady stream of news coming through. I believe it will be mostly good (otherwise I wouldn't be here !) and the current SP will soon be receding in the rear-view mirror as we head into 2s and 3s. Maybe even 4s on "better than expected" assays.

Good luck all.

Be lovely if you're right zahirmia, but I suspect you're optimistic. We've reached mid 50s earlier than I'd expected so I may be wrong, but I think we'll bounce in a channel for a bit until the news on US launch propels us up to 60s. Then we're on the dark side of the moon and wondering how the first announced sales pan out, with maybe a minor announcement (eg: positive review of efficacy published in influential journal) to keep us going.
I'd agree that £1 is in our future, and soon. Maybe late this year ??? IMO. Bear in mind, I'd privately predicted mid 50s late summer, so what do I know. Lol.

I think you're right in two places rodrod1.
A couple more deals will see the SP motoring. Current news has stabilised it somewhat, and is a good low-hanging-fruit. Another couple of new contracts in the next 2-3 months will really give assurance about future revenue and profit.
And now is exactly the time to buy (well, actually a year ago was THE time to buy) before that all happens and the SP is 2p - 2.5p - 3p+