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Hi Marcinkus,
Many thanks for sharing.
Yes, as expected and previously shared, the Group is unable to pay a divi without 'completing' the KfW facility.
As we know, this has already come down from the 1.1 Billion in place at the end of last year and because of them issuing the sustainability bond last month.
So nothing to say that they can't and won't issue another bond in the coming months, which will clear the facility in totality and open up the gates for a divi - have to say, that I'd be hugely surprised if this doesn't happen in the coming months and a divi paid in December's full year results statement for 2024 - if not, then 2025 is pretty much guaranteed!
Also, taking a quick look at the main holders of stock - pretty much like what I see (not so sure about Goldman, but sure everyone has an opinion on them) and shared a while ago, that I particularly like Helikon as a main shareholder, who basically exists to find stocks around the world which offer 'huge value' and they then invest accordingly - from memory, think they took their position in the middle of last year, so clearly a great asset for them!
GLA
Reading the summary:
https://www.tuigroup.com/damfiles/default/tuigroup-15/en/investors/3_Share/Admission-FSE/TUI-AG---Summary-Document---Convenience-Translation.pdf-b88a98b7cd45813b7c8d2b9dc80be560.pdf
Important info to note:
Type, class, nominal amount and ISIN. The Shares are registered shares with a notional par value (the proportionate
amount of the share capital of each share) of €1.00. The ISIN of the Shares is DE000TUAG505.
Currency and number of shares. Our Shares are denominated in euros. As of the date of this Summary Document,
we have 507,431,033 Existing Shares and 74,583,729 Conditional Shares outstanding. All Existing Shares are fully
paid up and all Conditional Shares will be fully paid up at the time of issuance.
"Dividend and dividend policy. The terms of the syndicated loan agreement of our revolving credit facility provided by
KfW as a governmental lender, which exists in the amount of €550 million as of the date of this Summary Document
(the "KfW Facility"), generally do not permit us to pay a dividend until the KfW Facility is fully redeemed. Even if we
return to profitability, we will not be able to pay dividends for the financial year ending on 30 September 2024 as
long as the KfW Facility remains in place."
SO, from my understanding all shares from LSE will be just converted in € and we won't need to do absolutely anything and the only change will be that the corresponding value will be in €. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Also interesting info about Alexey but that's for another post.
What dividend?
Does anyone know about the dividend on new shares at listing
Sp rising nicely now that we have left behind the millstone of appearing to be anchored in the UK!
Just reminder from TUI website „Subject to approval by TUI shareholders, the current timetable provides for trading in the Prime Standard market segment of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange to commence on or around 8 April 2024”
https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/media/press-releases/2024/2024-01-04-tui-shareholders-to-decide-on-future-stock-exchange-listing-at-the-annual-general-meeting
Hi Stiperstones,
Just one other thing to share if I may - so I follow Simply WallStreet, as I find their analysis often pretty good, although as with any analysis, you have to take much with a pinch of salt etc etc.
So just for your ref, right now, they have a fair price value for Tui of £9.95 and reporting that the average analyst 1 year price is £9.49 - I'll take either of these as I'm sure most posters will to!
GLA and have a terrific weekend
Oh and sorry for raising any expectations ref Tui announcements - disappointed to say the least, but hey, assume we'll have good news to look forward to, as and when they decide to share
Hi Stiperstones,
Many thanks for posting and always welcome new analysis.
Guess my thinking would be:
Interesting that analysts rarely follow company guidance and for that I don't blame them, as Tui hasn't had a great record in the past, but in the last 18 months or so, they've clearly learned and during that time have beaten forecasts accordingly.
So at the end of last year when they presented their results, they stated that revenue for 2024 would increase by at least 10% and much more importantly to me, profits, would increase by AT LEAST 25% - and I put the last bit in capitals, because they did too and they reiterated that position at the Q1 results.
Morgan Stanley, when they upgraded the stock in February 2024, actually stated that they thought that the profit number growth was conservative and based on the Q1 results, they only had to grow profits by another 8% in the rest of the year, to deliver the 25% growth - hope that makes sense!
Finally and as you will have read numerous times, when the RI happened last March/April, the company valuation at that time, the TERP should have been £8.30. Now clearly for that to materialise, investors need the confidence to take the SP to that level, but for me, I have every confidence that Q2 numbers will be strong when they publish next month and it wouldn't be a surprise if they raise guidance too, and especially on the profit number growth.
Clearly just my thinking and GLA
First post here so please don’t shoot the messenger. And thanks to you all as I have been following this engaging chat. Found this in case anyone is interested:
https://simplywall.st/stocks/de/consumer-services/etr-tui1/tui-shares/news/improved-revenues-required-before-tui-ag-etrtui1-stocks-27-j
Make that 660!! Old habits….
Must say I’m relieved to see how well it’s holding up despite flat markets these last days. One might have expected a whole load of profit taking from those who bought in in last year. Markets still v flat yet the TUI train is retesting 560. Sign in my view of likelihood that it’ll continue to outperform wider markets once they continue their next chink upwards.
Aktie: TUI AG - Aktienkurs, Chart, News, HV-Daten und mehr
ISIN: DE000TUAG505
Shortseller: Gladstone Capital Management LLP
Höhe der Short-Position: 0,57 %
Many thanks for the deep dive, Mike!
Hopefully they will follow suit (with Wizz air and Ryan sharing news) and publish a juicy story that will help the SP rise even more.
Hi Dathrilla,
So interesting Q and have checked back and for whatever reason, last year looks like the only time they released information specifically about Easter and of course some further information on how Summer was doing etc etc. Looking at the comms, which you can view in the link below, it may well have been that they were able to quote that they were taking 500k customers abroad, which of course is a decent 'round number'.
https://www.tuigroup.com/en-en/media/press-releases/2023/2023-04-06-tui-easter-holidays-2023-customers-prefer-sunshine-destinations
Before that of course you wouldn't expect anything between 2020 and 2022 and because of Covid etc.
2019 didn't have anything because in March of that year the MAX jets had all be grounded and so at that time is was all about getting in extra capacity and dealing with the 'panic' caused at that time
Couldn't see anything at all in 2018, but in both 2017 and 2016, they actually released a 'pre-closing statement' at the end of March sharing how things had progressed for the Winter and how Summer was progressing too.
So they've certainly used different methods over the years, but all comms complicated by Covid and the grounding of the MAX jets. Guess, we'll just have to see, but still hoping that they will issue an update of sorts in the next couple of days - that said, could of course be complicated this month by the Premier Listing scenario within Frankfurt and of course the delisting scenario too, so may simply decide to leave it all to the Half Year announcement - for me, hoping not and will be disappointed if 'no news'
Hope this helps and GLA
Hi Mike,
Does an update occur every year as far as TUI concerned?
Hi donalb,
Many thanks for sharing and just need ourselves to update accordingly tomorrow or Friday - let's hope eh!!
Good to see the travel/tourism industry growing so strongly, especially TUI's new airline partner Wizz !!!
On a rolling 12-month basis, Wizz Air said it carried 62.0 million passengers, up 21% from 51.1 million the year before. The load factor improved to 90.1% from 87.8%.
In the 12 months to March, Ryanair said it carried 183.7 million passengers, up 7% from 168.6 million year-on-year. The load factor at 94% was up one percentage point from 93%.
https://www.ii.co.uk/news/ryanair-and-wizz-carry-more-passengers-in-march-wizz-load-factor-dips-al1712131448674259500
Hi everyone,
Hope you're all very well.
So a little disappointed that Tui haven't released any Easter numbers as I expected them to, today. That said, we've had numerous times when Tui haven't quite done what they could have done to drive the SP eh over the last year.
So my assumption is now, that the numbers will come out next week - the fact that next Monday is also the end of the second quarter and Half Year, may also have something to do with not releasing numbers today. Additionally, another poster from earlier in week, actually thought that they'd share into next week anyway, which is then comparative timings yr on yr.
Reading about travel plans today for Easter there's no shortage at all with regards a very positive picture, with Edinburgh; Newcastle; Manchester and Bristol from what I can see, ALL expecting record numbers through their airports in the next 4 days and as such, you have to think and believe that Tui will be right there amongst the mix, if not leading it!
Also, can't complain at what has been a pretty good week for us, with 'right now' showing a 70p movement from Monday's opening of £5.83, ie 12% rise over just 4 days!
Have a brilliant Easter everyone and can't see any reason based on above and hopeful that Easter trade will also be published next week, as two why we can't breach £7 pretty readily and onwards too
GLA
GH55, this site has lots of first hand info, but you may need to google translate a lot.
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/equity/tui-ag-na-o-n-1
FYI - Xetera Bourse is closed tomorrow & Monday, so expect Easter updates in 1-2 weeks.
FYI 2 - Only TUI news today, is they are ending 4 TUI planes engaged in night time letter postal deliveries for Deutsche Poste. CO2 wasteful & probably not very profitable.
Q. Anybody any updates on how our shorters are faring ?
Https://x.com/SwazersC/status/1773310013693403482?s=20 https://www.tradingview.com/x/0D8lLsKE/
Https://www.tradegate.de/orderbuch.php?lang=en&isin=DE000TUAG505
Morning fellow investors does anyone have a Recommendation for a reliable site to follow the German TUI AG.
I do hope the Easter Bunny comes a-bouncing over to us tomorrow.
I think my computer must have been experiencing passing through a space time portal and looking at a future price. Taylor Wimpey was up to £1.56 so good news if you have any of them !