The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
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9 months revenue $50m ... 12 months will be $75m !!!!!!
Costs will be lower than last year, cheaper energy, lower taxes, higher gold prices and a preferential exchange rate. The net profit for the year will embarrass the sp the special dividend will be almost shameless ... how dare we? I’m fully loaded and if it dips before the next news I’m throwing my credit card balance in as well.
Gold continued to rise since my post yesterday, now up by another 1%, IMO the company is now lagging, having had a very positive update.
I think in the short term we've all paid for the apparent insider trading (or pure coincidence ) the day before the news release, I suspect those smart investors sold into the rise, obviously no Shenanigans though. I wish I could time things so well.
Thankyou to both of the B's for the info on the GDXJ constituents. I didn't think of using good old Barchart.
I was eluding to it being difficult if a particular share has been re-balanced, as it is hard to see the before and after weighting.
I guess I just need to save a copy of the Economic Alpha graphics, and I will have a reference for Q1 2021.
Problem solved.
ps, reminds me of a Simpsons episode when Homer reads out a large list of baseball players and after each one says 'your cut'.
Has been moving up steadily for the last few sessions towards $1900/oz ($1860 currently).
With combined record production, strong gold prices and excellent new grades which should be easily accessible in 2021, really paints a very rosy picture for the coming year.
Dartron,
TSG do appear in the latest GDXJ list. Therefore the answer is no. Perhaps with a growing profile and market cap (hopefully), they could be considered for the fund next year? https://economicalpha.blog/2020/12/11/gdxj-mvis-rebalance-q4-2020/
TSG does not appear to be a GDXJ constituent:-
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/GDXJ/constituents
The index re-shuffle was confirmed last Friday & TSG was not amongst those to be added. It may well, however, be included in other indices that I'm not aware of.
I was wondering if the GDXJ or similar fund has increased its stake in TSG, as the 10% rise seems to be the morning after the GDXJ news that sent GGP and PUR up as they both got increased. Its not easy to check though.
Wrongun - think you need to focus on the past couple of months more
The Q3 update in mid Oct stated that Q3 output was 11k oz about the same as Q2 ... and that total y-t-d output was slightly below 30k oz. This 11mth output total is now 40k oz
So Q1 we were averaging <3k oz p.m ; Q2 / Q3 < 4k oz p.m and so far in Q4 >5k oz !!!
If production is just maintained next year at this Q4 rate then we're looking at 60k oz production
On that output and current prices I would put a fair value of 175-200p on TSG !
In today's news - "Pound plunges against Dollar and Euro after annoucement London will move into Tier 3" - so when they set the exchange rate for the dividend we get more GBP.
By all means let the Fool take the credit for the share price surge.
However, I've been invested in this stock long enough to know that the instinctive response of the share price to any number of recommendations is an big fat MEH!
Not yesterday though it seems...?
There were other reasons already covered in threads.
Also, from Fool.co.uk
G A Chester: Trans-Siberian Gold
Trans-Siberian Gold (LSE: TSG) is a small but profitable miner with ambitions of becoming a premier mid-tier operator. Its strategy is to maintain a strong balance sheet, while both investing in growth opportunities and paying a base level of sustainable dividends through the commodities cycle.
The base level’s set at around $3m a year (a 2.5% yield at the current share price), but the company regularly distributes more. This year’s interim dividend alone was $7m (5.9% yield).
With its growth prospects and record of distributing surplus cash to shareholders, Trans-Siberian Gold is my top pick in the smaller companies space.
by the fact that the share price shot up 1 day before this announcement of good news.
Insider trading surely?
Russian Orthodox Xmas is later than here. 7th January.
Russian main holidays and mine closures are from New Year to Xmas .
Returns here over the last 5 years have bought everyone lots of new pants by way of dividends. Miners who make loadsa money and don’t pay dividends Like Shanta for example keep their holders waiting for a day that never comes. Dilution, fundraising, more exploration more promises NOT here you get what it says on the tin profit and dividends. Straightforward proper investment, they have an SP target of £1.50 before bonus shares are rewarded to the directors. The Group has continued with exploration drilling near-mine and proximal step-out targets in the vicinity of the Asacha Gold Mine. Additionally, an aeromagnetic survey was completed over the Asacha licence area with the objective of identifying new exploration targets. The Company expects to report the outcomes of these exploration activities shortly
The scoping study on the Rodnikova deposit, and expected to finalise in 2020. Next week is also news of JORC if they have time whilst digging all those massive nuggets out.
Well it seems my punt here has come good. I was looking for a small producer to park my money after HGM.However Of course I am more concerned with GOLD price in the next 12 months . And despite Vacine news 2021 will be the year of coming to terms with Government borrowings....continuing ultra low interest rates and hence continuing high gold price.Just to add let us not forget the Russian oligarch interest in home grown companies and hence we enter the story of HGM . Although I made money here the continued growth for outsiders came to an end . At least they allowed me to cash in my shares and I didnt lose my pants ...Thanks Vladimar !
On the topic of simple maths - extra production does not mean proportional extra costs.
AISC where higher than 2019 in the first half of the year as lower grades and working through less productive ground required the extraction and treatment of a bigger volume of material. I posted about this previously
This is one of the anomalies of mining (compared with producing more widgets in a factory), more activity does not necessarily mean more production - that's why the RNS is so Fantastic IMO - because the dramatic improvement in production is down to higher grades so not necessarily associated with higher costs and most importantly can be continued into 2021 and beyond.
When combined with the higher gold prices as the year closes this bodes really well for dividends and prospects for 2021 - I suspect as ever some PI's will be tempted to sell, but they are short sighted to sell on this news IMO.
14652 oz in Q4 that’s a 25% increase in Q3 and its exponentially so who knows ?
Now that's the sort of update you dream of from an AIM company
Without going into the why's and wherefore's, some of his figures appear to be quite a bit different from TSG's published figures.
And southbankresearch.com appears to be behind Nigel Farage's new 'Fortune & Freedom” investment opportunity that was launched at 2pm today. Coincidence? Looks like a lot of investment groups might be waking up to the excellent prospects for TSG.
The reason might be the following:
https://www.southbankresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2020/12/GSF-Newsletter-Dec-20-Issue-22-1.pdf
I cannot assess the quality of the newsletter. But the fact is that Trans Siberian Gold has NOT paid for this newsletter.
The greatest risk in TSG appears to be the increased likelihood of earthquakes. I can understand. Hence the advantageous grades with deposits of volcanic origin.
Here is the author's conclusion, in addition to the likely dividend yield of> 8% p.a .:
"I rate it a buy up to 115p. My 12-month target is 200p and my five-year target is 1,000p.
That is based on the assumption that the dollar will trend lower for another five years, the gold price responds as I expect and the company reaches its 100,000 oz per annum goal."
urai5
P.S. £ 10 in 5 years wouldn't be bad; I can dream; besides the dividend yield , I would be satisfied with half of it.
I have not read the details from the investor call yet, but always thought that V25 alone should get the SP back to new highs once the production figures come more predominantly from that bonanza area.
Very good dividend stock (long history) as well which is rare for Gold stocks.
GLA Sharegar.
Thanks Urai5, Have held for a while as the fundamentals and management have looked very good. Nice move today, The investor call was successful. Well done.
Today is but a taster for whats to come for this s/p in 2021, hopefully.
And versus the 2021 potential performance from this co., the s/p remains significantly undervalued imho
NO shenanigans here, never has been. They warned everyone that the sp was too low, they threw a 6% dividend at us, they have news to come before the end of the year that will see this heading for their 150 target. Last 5 years will show how open and trustworthy they are. The SP should never have drifted with the pog as they have more gold than ever.