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Started: Ayecuramba, 13 Jun 2024 07:58
Last post: Ayecuramba, 13 Jun 2024 07:58
Here is the direct link to the TXP article in the Trinidad Express...
https://trinidadexpress-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/trinidadexpress.com/business/local/touchstone-to-explore-deep-horizon-drilling/article_8a44a4ae-2865-11ef-84d6-8fa94c75c740.amp.html
Started: Ayecuramba, 12 Jun 2024 10:04
Last post: Ayecuramba, 12 Jun 2024 12:47
Yes I think the joining of expertise in Oil production from TRIN and Gas production from TXP should lead to very postive synergies for the group :-)
I like the look of that one Ayecuramba, especially this bit.
The near term TXP assets and the longer term assets in TRIN what Cavendish tell us contain: “Significant Upside but Financing Required: Including the 38.7mmbbls of 2C resources into our valuation highlights Trinity’s upside potential if funding was available, increasing our target price to 347p, a significant c8.4x the current share price.”
More details from a 3rd party view;
Https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/touchstone-exploration
Started: Ayecuramba, 25 May 2024 09:31
Last post: Geldautomat, 28 May 2024 13:27
Best deal Trinity are going to get. Together both companies have a good chance of success
Just for those that are interested here is the page with all the relevant documents relating to the All Share offer from Touchstone for Trinity;
https://trinityexploration.com/investors/touchstone-offer/
Started: Agricore, 4 May 2024 10:18
Last post: Ayecuramba, 13 May 2024 14:02
Started: PipeDragger, 1 May 2024 08:39
Last post: Geldautomat, 5 May 2024 21:42
You need to be on the TXP discord. Sounds like you know a lot about Trin that us TXP folk don't. Please join :)
https://discord.gg/mAFPPDtx
I wonder what the acquisition would mean for the new Buenos Ayres block as well. Surely TRIN new they were cash strapped from beforehand so how were they planning to fully develop Buneos Ayres. Would this now pass to TXP without issue or would the process to win the block have to be revised once more?
Given TXP doesn't have offshore experience will they be able to see value and develop Galeota going forward? I find it highly unlikely that a lack of capital was the only issue that TRIN experienced in pushing Galeota forward.
I’m guessing TXP’s price dropped cause their share holders may have an idea of just how bad TRIN is and the acquisition wouldn’t most likely have any near-term value add options.
1) TRIN’s reserves at the 2P level have been reduced and figures have shifted into 2C level according to the oak bloke blog post. Perhaps they were overly optimistic in the past about their actual capabilities so I see this as a bad sign.
2) In the past few years, they’ve hired more and more foreign direct and indirect executives yet the company itself hasn’t developed further in output. Production continues to decline at a rate of 10% or more.
3) They have paid $8mln for Jacobin which I think is quite a bit over the original budget, why wasn’t a stop loss marker of sorts put into place? Provided those depths hadn’t been tested yet but the entire T&T region is highly mature they should have known with the ongoing geopolitical risks and other local unknowns that the value they could have realistically gotten from this endeavour would be unlikely.
4) They need to take as much upside as they can get yet they royally screwed up by getting too greedy with financial instruments in 2022. The executives should have never in my opinion allowed the company to take out such instruments. Having open-ended unlimited obligations is the worst thing they could have done. Sure they didn’t know what oil prices would have been at the time, but they could have paid for a simple put/put spread instrument to protect their down side from the very beginning. If they didn’t have the cash to cover it all they could have reduced the period of coverage or the amount of production hedged.
5) The Galeota fire incident I’m sure would have set them back as well. A lot of the T&T infrastructure is more than likely very aged. So repairing and implementing updated systems to deal with this issue would have been another factor to consider that has taken away a chunk of their cash
6) Paying to fix or investigate the cyber-attack issue would be another concern. Provided that they are an oil company and can’t seem to get anything right are we sure that since the incident they’ve been able to get top notch IT persons to secure their current data? I’d be scared about a transition of data from one company to another in case a computer virus or trojan infects the other company’s data assets.
Could you resend a working link to the discord please? I couldn't get through with the last posted link. Thanks
First off it’s TXP, and second off you need to do your homework to understand the upside you are to be given here. I think you’re getting too much, would have rather seen a 1:1 ratio.
I have a very comprehensive wiki in the the TXP Discord, you should check it out.
Started: Ayecuramba, 3 May 2024 11:00
Last post: Ayecuramba, 3 May 2024 11:00
For those of you interested, Touchstone just held a conference call which was recorded on the Investor Meet Company website about some more details on the merger and benefits, looks like will not complete until Q3 anyway, so still time for anything to happen...
Started: Ayecuramba, 2 May 2024 16:17
Last post: Ayecuramba, 2 May 2024 16:17
... so just thougt I would test the chat board, just popping over from TXP to check out the vibe :-)
Started: 91Divoc, 1 May 2024 12:36
Last post: 91Divoc, 1 May 2024 12:36
Last post: ripley94, 1 May 2024 09:44
Not to much chat here 14 posts to 9.30am on this news.
2 in the 5 days after my last post .
Share price yesterday of 36p the lowest since 2021 consolation .
Hindsight should of cut the loss on last August spike to 95p
11/1/24 Down 18% 36p
7/8/23 Up 35% to 95p
Todays news .
On AIM, Trinity Exploration surged 47%. Touchstone Exploration fell 4.4%. Touchstone said it has struck an all-share deal to acquire Trinity.
The all-share agreement values the latter at GBP24.1 million. Touchstone Exploration, an oil and natural gas exploration and production active in Trinidad & Tobago, said the deal will create a "leading Trinidadian operator of scale".
It said: "The addition of Trinity's existing production portfolio, along with its exploration and development assets, will position the combined group as one of the leading independent operating companies dedicated to investing in both onshore and offshore activity to grow Trinidadian oil and gas production."
As part of the deal, Trinity shareholders will receive 1.5 new Touchstone shares for each Trinity share owned. Trinity Shareholders will own just under 20% of the combined firm. Trinity directors consider the terms of the deal to be "fair and reasonable".
My broker has it down 9% a lesser 7.69% this site 5.71% spread. *36p
About 40 posts since last look 11 January 2024.
It has again returned to 36p as it did last week and on 11th January and 18th December 2023.
22/11/22 paid 106p for some , steady decline since then .
RNS Today
Trinity Exploration & Production - Trinidad & Tobago-focused oil exploration and production company -
Provides an update on operations for the three-month to March 31. Chief Executive Jeremy Bridglalsingh comments: "Trinity's core business remains robust and cash-generative, with no long-term debt." Focus remains on maximising cash flow from existing producing assets; rebuilding cash following the drilling of the Jacobin well in 2023; and maturing detailed engineering for the two principal projects.
About 130 posts since last look in August 2023.
My broker showed them down 18% at close this site down 10% with 5% spread after bad Rns.
In hindsight the good news RNS 7th August 2023 up 35% to 100p would of been a good sell .
The low was 18/12/23 when 36p share returned to that today .
Typo below rebought these and doubled up just before Christmas 2022.
Approx third of that price now.
Noticed VLS. low takeover this morning at huge loss for me .
AIM is to be well avoided .
Wow only 90 posts here since I last rebought just before Christmas 22/12/23 for 106p.
By last week they had fallen to 71.5p .
Good example of buying into the rise ,up 35% today at 100p.
10 months ago sold for 123p in Truss PM market .
ab76
Are you still in TRIN?
Started: Mibb, 1 May 2024 07:24
Last post: Monkey_Junkey, 1 May 2024 08:35
Guess I should invite you lot into the TXP discord now. There are a couple wiki channels for Trinity stuff, feel free to post any relevant info you have there. If you’re easily offended or woke, the Discord isn’t going to be a good place for you. Have fun.
https://discord.gg/JTUEtd6j
They will end up improving this offer to around 75 to 80p, but that could be 6 to 8 weeks away.
It is not even half e yet. See where it goes
Oh well. At least with Touchstone paper we make it onto Malcy's 2024 bucket list!
so we go to 53p instead of 61p, typical, with trinity you can't even get re-rated to the offer price, because you know, it's trinity!! just in case they **** this up too...
Started: Mibb, 30 Apr 2024 12:24
Last post: Thunder2040, 30 Apr 2024 12:38
The issue is the market believes the board will be lighting cigars with the pile of dollars as opposed to returning it to us or drilling anything that works
So, when TRIN has more cash than its Market Cap, I think I'll make a hostile takeover bid at 40p. Ha! Just band together a load of the huge holders who must be mortified at the value of their holdings...
Started: Visitor, 26 Apr 2024 07:50
Last post: Thunder2040, 26 Apr 2024 12:12
MCAP continues its decline towards net cash.....the board are basically being told here that the market believes they will actively destroy shareholder value going forward haha. I think its time for the larger shareholders to call time on this one and liquidate the assets - the CEO is getting paid far too much for this performance. Needs a special general meeting to be called ASAP imo.
Is that not perfectly normal for AIM stocks these days? The market no longer cares unless there is some colossal story to get involved in.
The NAV is 203p per share, is that correct? You could add a zero to the number of shares in issue to 390,000,000 and the company would be on PE of 8 or 9 with a market Cap of £130m and a NAV of 20p per share. QUITE extraordinary.
No matter the disappointment on Jacobin, TRIN is at a £15m market cap, when it has USD 9.1m Net Cash (incl VAT receipts) or GBP 7.3m. When EBITDA is USD4m per Quarter, taking in to account Net Cash position and 2,600-2,700 bopd, TRIN is on a PE of less than 1.
That's not taking even taking in to account the value of Galeota.
Started: PipeDragger, 25 Apr 2024 07:09
Last post: PipeDragger, 25 Apr 2024 14:16
From the 15th April RNS: "The Company will hold a session for investors via the Investor Meet Company platform in the week commencing 22 April 2024, following the announcement of its Q1 Operational Update that week." I checked that platform and no meeting is scheduled for this week or next. What is going on with this company?
Quarterly update is usually the last Thursday in April. Twitter X is also totally free of any postings. What is going on with these guys?
*and the call around 2pm
Well I think it's likely the RNS is released 7am tomorrow and the
Things must be bad indeed..........
Started: Thunder2040, 17 Apr 2024 10:29
Last post: Thunder2040, 17 Apr 2024 10:29
I see deep value here much in agreement with the investment case laid out in investors chronicle write ups...granted sentiment is terrible but if you do invest in deep value opportunities this is actually currently a fairly strong buy...the tax changes and oil price increase can double this within months with no operational progress imo
Started: PipeDragger, 12 Apr 2024 09:46
Last post: rossannan, 15 Apr 2024 13:54
The old management had very significant personal shareholdings, but these guys have been very slow to put their hands in their well remunerated pockets to align with retail shareholders. “A big red flag that was”, Yoda might say.
It's a kick in their own teeth as they are destroying their own personal share holdings. (Unless there is some cunning plan to go private and/or sell out the business to some other group that employs better oil-geologists)
Nice of them to pop up with a kick in the teeth ahead of the quarterly update.
I think everyone realises that they will finally write off the lower levels in the next update. The question is whether they have moved on to production testing the shallows. Their previous glacial pace suggests they may not have. That would not be well received.
Last message on Twitter was 1st Feb. It must be really bad at Jacobin?
Started: scoredagainsteps, 15 Apr 2024 08:13
Last post: scoredagainsteps, 15 Apr 2024 08:13
Got out at break even other week as after studying decided to bail . I Dont hang around these days only in 10 percent of my stock .it works better for me .GOOD LUCK ALL IMI THERE WILL BE BUYERS AT 30/31
Started: PipeDragger, 2 Apr 2024 12:35
Last post: rossannan, 3 Apr 2024 23:09
Yes, with WTI firming you can feel the impetus for a confrontation with this awful BoD beginning to fade. A real pity. The share price may respond somewhat to an improved climate for oilers but a significant recovery is not possible here without a change of strategy, something that is just not going to happen unless these characters see us coming for their salaries. Ab76 could have made that happen but he chose not to.
A very real concern of mine and one that I have highlighted previously. My suspicion is that the reason that influential large shareholders have chosen not to take action is that poor performance and resultant low valuation plays into their hands. Holders such as AB who clearly have no intention of supporting any form of small shareholder action may come to regret that decision.
Could happen, I suppose, the shareholders do seem quite unbelievably complacent. But how disconnected is the valuation really? As I said before, look at recent annual and interim accounts for a better idea of the profitability and trajectory here and what the market is getting at with the current share price.
Seems to be the fashion. Molecular (was President) is going private. Not the only one leaving AIM as valuation is disconnected these days. This morning I noted REDX (not an oil co) is going private. Will TRIN go private?
Started: Mibb, 27 Mar 2024 16:59
Last post: rossannan, 28 Mar 2024 13:05
*Mibb - annoying auto-correct!
Mine
The first mistake you are making is to look at gross figures. Have a look at recent annual and interim accounts for a better idea of the profitability and trajectory here and what the market is getting at with the current share price.
All the best
Ross
AB76, good to know that you are still about, presumably you have not sold out! Does the fact that you have remained so quiet of late choosing not to contribute to the discussion on shareholder action, mean that you are not in favour and would not be prepared to lend your support? If that is the case I hope your confidence in management to do something sensible does not prove to be misplaced.
Consistent with many AIM stocks though, they've become literally detached from their share price representing them? Nobody cares, like the share price correlating with revenue doesn't matter anymore?
In early January, Cavendish (Trinity’s broker), observed that Trinity is “A FCF Generative Business Trading at a Significant Discount. In an already undervalued sector, Trinity is trading on an EV/Sales of 0.2x, EV/2P of US$0.9/bbl and an EV/boepd of US$5,687/boepd – significantly below that of its peer group. With recent investor attention focused on the Jacobin
well, we believe investors have lost sight of Trinity’s core fundamental value.” I agree.
Started: scoredagainsteps, 25 Mar 2024 15:48
Last post: scoredagainsteps, 26 Mar 2024 13:02
Thanks i will look however still think its a low mkt capt .
Scoredagainsteps
I would read the disclaimers that accompany those Cavendish notes before you thank Ab76 for peddling them.
All the best
Ross
KIND thanks ab76 only bought a few thousand as was in before and she dropped . But this time feels better
With a core net asset value of 201.8p (a valuation which places no value on 48.8mmbls of 2C reserves or the new Buenos Ayres licence), there’s little doubt that Trinity is seriously undervalued. Cavendish’s reports, setting out the valuation, are available free of charge on Research Tree and Cavendish’s website.
SURELY MUST BE THE BEST VALUE OUT THERE 15 million mkt capt and 2600 bopd maybe im a fool but i see great value .WE will soon see
Started: scoredagainsteps, 25 Mar 2024 15:31
Last post: scoredagainsteps, 25 Mar 2024 15:31
Thought the other day great buy good luck all i just think its undervalued
Started: scoredagainsteps, 19 Mar 2024 14:55
Last post: scoredagainsteps, 19 Mar 2024 14:55
Mkt capt tiny plus producing i feel risk reward now is very good
Started: crl123, 15 Mar 2024 13:29
Last post: crl123, 15 Mar 2024 13:29
I have too many green boxes to engage here regarding this.
Any holders who wish to promote real action from the inert BOD of Trin, please visit Advfn Trinity Oil Production thread. Shares are being amassed.
There is only so long we can be ignored.
Started: jfk9, 11 Mar 2024 11:19
Last post: jfk9, 11 Mar 2024 11:19
Over on the ADVFN board there is a proposal to initiate some form of shareholder action, to stir the BoD. If anyone from here is interested in participating then register with your share holding over on ADVFN. A 5% threshold is required to proceed with any form of shareholder action, currently 2.5% pledged.
Started: PipeDragger, 7 Mar 2024 12:39
Last post: PipeDragger, 7 Mar 2024 12:39
The continual dive in the value of the TRIN shares means that the dividend yield is an increasing %. We have got to find some good news out of this investment graveyard -) LOL
Started: ab76, 28 Jan 2024 19:39
Last post: rossannan, 29 Jan 2024 07:56
Ab76
That seems an incredibly naive approach to the present valuation of TRIN. Historical valuations of TRIN’s assets, or any part of them, really are neither here nor there and the amount of additional funds that shareholders have poured into TRIN over time is just a sad testament to the risks of investing in AIM companies. The present valuation of TRIN has to be based the present realities of TRIN. No one is now going to offer what they once might have offered for its assets and almost all the money extracted from shareholders is just gone.
All the best
Ross
In the new blog, I’ve argued that Trinity is potentially worth at least $166.3 million (£131 million or 336p per share). That sounds like a lot compared with the current £18.5 million market capitalisation/47.75p share price, but: (i) it’s based upon prices offered for two of Trinity’s three asset groups within the past 8 years; and (ii) is dwarfed by the $226 million of additional funds that shareholders have poured into Trinity since 2012.
If my estimate is wrong, it’s because oil assets have fallen significantly in value since 2016 (which seems unlikely in Trinidad given the fiscal reforms - which are now worth between $7.5 to $8.5 million per year to Trinity, and much more if we get some production from Galeota) and/or because management have squandered it (there have been several unsuccessful drills, but that’s part of oil exploration and there hasn’t been $226 worth of failed drills or for that matter $226 million worth of payments to managers - the combined salaries for senior management have been between about $1.2 and $1.8 million per year for years).
If my estimate is wrong, I’d be surprised if it’s out by more than 50%, which would still give a share price of 168p.
Obviously, it would be helpful if Trinity or its brokers set out their opinion on asset value and I’ve asked them to do that.
Ab76
Either you can see something that the market is missing or the market can see something that you are missing. I think it is the latter. Have a think about what it might be.
All the best
Ross
What’s Trinity worth? At the moment, the stock market says £18.5 million. However, over the past 12 years $226 million has been poured into the company. I think most of that value remains (at least $166.3 million) and set out why in this new blog: https://andrewbyles.blogspot.com/2024/01/trinity-exploration-and-production-plc.html