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Just as the SP begun to stabilise we could do without more uncertainty. But as has been the way over the past few months it circles back to Shishir - no trading update and no promised investor meet, RNS virtually promising the VAT refund which still hasn’t materialised
I don’t think ousting a chief executive who has so many shares is a good idea, however, the larger concern is why the NEDs who left are looking to do this - what do they know / have seen which we aren’t privy to - it’s worrying
Disappointed that the investor meet still hasn’t been called, especially as there is still uncertainty until debt finance is agreed or the VAT refund finally lands. Agree with Plaza that next week holds potential for a wave of buying but with the SP decline in recent months this will only happen if there’s a stronger forward looking outlook
Shishir can provide this with an interview so I’m hoping this is called asap in April
Very pleased to see that this morning - the only thing missing from premium order update was volume figures and the concrete commitment of a monthly shipment, but combined with a director purchase we're beginning to see shoots of confidence which will hopefully provide the base for a re-rate
I have been making myself a nuisance on email about this
13th March: “We will be scheduling an IMC and information will be released to markets as it is finalised.”
So it does still seem to be in the works but as I keep reiterating, whilst the SP continues to drop the sentiment worsens and it gets harder and harder to recover
For me, the VAT refund had been in the works for months, as was the DFI arrangements so the fact they still haven’t landed is really poor. Plus a previous RNS said 1,000 - 1,200 was operational breakeven when monthly volume was 800/month (that might need a bit of fact checking), the fact we’re now at 1,500 min target, and still not there, is really concerning - why 300+ tonnes now needed to be in the green, plus why are we not there consistently when again, previous RNS said company was executing orders of 1,200 a month consistently and growing - have we lost customers? Why has all the recent enquiries that’s been mentioned not transitioned into sales?
When you’re at 4.5p a share and the only thing you can do is dribble out an RNS that says we’ve done a bit of drilling when we’re 50k tpa behind where we initially targeted for 2024 and putting out a proactive investor interview where we’re still reiterating that we’re in a good position post-China restrictions (it’s been 5+ months already, why haven’t we seen tangible improvement) just tells the market there’s no good news in the pipeline
Mulling it over tomorrowtoday does make a good point, if Shishir’s limited company’s are going to supply the equipment for the PCUs, why isn’t he demonstrating those relationships are favourable for TG
Current position:
- Alistair has sent a couple of very considered emails which gives me faint hope that things will improve
- the current situation is partly graphite market but majority investor market not trusting Poddar ownership and motives
- Until Shishir clearly demonstrates to the market they can trust the company (ownership + governance) we are going nowhere unfortunately
Genuine question on this - if everything is passed through and verified via the auditors how would you be able to grossly inflate the cost of the equipment without it being red flagged?
Bit of musing but I’ve been hoping to see a battery minerals holding rns to say they’ve cleared their holding, at least it would explain some of the 1m+ purchases over the past couple of weeks and offer some indication the large sells are coming to a close
There can’t be many other holders wanting to offload that much volume at this level
There is still little to cheer and the latest updates have unfortunately appeared like a desperate attempt at getting some good news out, however, I think for potential investors looking in now the risk reward has suddenly increased sizeably in their favour
I do believe Shishir is committed to being listed, I do however also still believe that the TSG/Pranagraf links continue to be a key factor in mistrust and his promised investor meet could be a key opportunity for him to tackle this head on
I did receive a very considered email from Alistair about his new role so I am hopeful that comms will improve and, hopefully, there will be an actual turning point so the SP begins to start moving higher
One of the important things I think at the investor meet which was promised is to get clarity on where they spend their time. Both Shishir and Puruvi are running all the private businesses (which should be under TGR umbrella) - but it would be galling for shareholders if their time distribution has been weighted towards Pranagraf and that's why TGR progress has slowed
As said earlier, the funding news looks on the face of it, like an opportunity to turn a corner, but until money is in the business then it means nothing, these have all been mentioned in RNS updates for months
Overall, reassurance on multiple fronts - finance in the short term looks to be all but sorted $2m VAT refund and a loan from a shady Madagascan bank will be good as long as the terms are ok
The team balance is not good - hopefully Alistair appears on the investor meet to present his credentials - but they really need to add some weight and experience with new hires
Glad Shishir has explicitly said the company won’t go private, this hasn’t (and won’t) reassure investors on all fronts, but I’m glad a couple of things have been cleared up for now, hope the market responds positively
Doing a bit of digging and any reassurances here would be good (e.g. these are two completely different scenarios) however, some wording in the RNS feels all too familiar
There's a mention of Stratmin Global Resources PLC here: https://tirupatigraphite.tradeindia.com/ - a few years ago Shishir looks to have been appointed operations and marketing director, this co. ceased to exist on the market in 2017 and although I haven't gone too deep into the details, it reads as though there was a takeover and the money never arrived because of regulatory blocks (different scenario but feels similar to TSG failed acquisition)
At the time they had a vested interest in one of the Tirupati graphite businesses and shares were owned by Tirupati Carbons & Chemicals Pvt. Ltd - Shishir being majority shareholder - he then went on to get a mining license for TCCpvt later that year 12.91ha: https://forestsclearance.nic.in/writereaddata/FormA/Miningletter/1011412281214E2TWXEktaMiningPlanwithoutcoveringletter-1-209.pdf
I guess the concern looking at how TGR has been run in the past few months is that we're heading into similar territory - has TGR just been a long fundraising exercise to ensure the private tirupati businesses have developed assets they can pick up for next to nothing?
Everything is going to be speculation at this point until we get some news, personally I think this highlights the complete lack of thought or respect to shareholders that an RNS wasn't prepared for market open this morning, based on the significant price drop last week and the further uncertainty around another NED resignation
tomorrowtoday I appreciate a lot of people have shot you down in recent weeks but could I ask for some more info on this meeting, who attended, what next steps were agreed etc.
Next week is going to be extremely important imo. If Shishir is serious about getting trust re-established he will have got his Q3 update ready to RNS first thing tomorrow morning and get a solid forward-looking statement out
Based on the very brief email he sent last week I'm also expecting the investor meet to be set for late next week
The other distinct possibility is continued silence and the drop continues
From HY update:
· Considering an average head grade of c.3% across the two Madagascar projects, the Company will add two pre-concentrate units and ramp up production and sales in Madagascar to steady state of 2,000 tons per month in the minimum possible time.
It'll be interesting to see if this target was hit - it was only a few months ago where underpromise/overdeliver was assured - how that has failed to materialise.
SP just tumbling at this point. Awful.
If Shishir & co wanted to stabilise the share price they would've got a trading update out weeks ago - it wasn't long ago that he wrote something along the lines of this being a transformational stage for the company. If you can't put out positive forward looking statements then, what hope do you have.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I do fear the long term aim has been to have TGR fold and Prangraf buy the assets for a pittance. Have tried to be mildly optimistic in the last few weeks as HarChris and a few others have put forward well-reasoned posts to remain patient, but there is very little cause for optimism today.
I agree, this is absolutely crucial. The last investor meet my questions went unanswered and I know many other people said the same thing. It was entirely selective and on this occasion I believe the board (basically just Shishir at this point!) needs to tackle everything head on.
The TSG/Pranagraf business has been an issue for a long time, the transactions will have been audited so I don't agree that there has been stealing taking place, but TG essentially funding Pranagraf's development after the failed acquisition would be a real kick in the teeth for investors, especially as it looks as though this acquisition will never come to fruition.
This is an opportunity to salvage reputation with investors, based on the SP fall and exit of nearly everyone apart from Puruvi & Shishir it could be last chance saloon, let's see.
Final question - post from Madagascar trip showed Christian St-Dennis with Shishir & Murat, if he's resigned from post why was he there and not Isabel?
Reinforces all the concerns many shareholders have had for a while - the board member feedback also extremely concerning, whoever that was.
If Shishir was committed to turning TGR around he would've been sitting in front of investors answering these questions months ago, more time has passed and there's been no shred of positive news.
I, like many, have been ignored for ages via email but I'll be pushing again for an investor meet
I haven't looked at Syrah in detail however interesting as a point of discussion on wider market trends (concerningly) is that their short position is at record high levels, 0.5% in 2022 now 17%+ shorted
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SYR
Separately another interesting news article for NMG who announced a supply agreement for 18tpa - I wonder if TGR are looking at similar deals with customers being shown around in madagascar recently
https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20240214190689/nmg-and-panasonic-energy-announce-binding-offtake-agreement-and-us25-million-private-placement-to-secure-the-supply-of-active-anode-material-for-north-american-battery-production
The recent activity on X has been an improvement however the lack of RNS newsflow and, as mentioned many times, an investor meet has allowed continued doubt to manifest itself across shareholders and when the SP has plummeted to where we are now, you'd be very hard pressed to find anyone happy with the situation at the moment
It was great to see an email shared on here last week, but again, why is Shishir cherry picking one person to respond to? If he is that worried about a hostile takeover then surely one of the first priorities is to get in front of shareholders, dispel any rumours that he consistently says are unfounded and reassure everyone over the cash position - lack of any positive news and reassurance is putting the SP in an awful place right now.
Someone last week asked about the trade import/export link, this is the one I found before, hope that helps! https://www.trademo.com/companies/tirupati-graphite-plc/40464231