Member Info for mhow

RNS 09/12/21 "The contracted and in pipe line sales remain robust to achieve the sales target of 4,000 tons across the Sahamamy and Vatomina projects"

Recent RNS: During FY 22 (covering the period April 2021 to March 2022), total production was 2,996 MT (FY 21 1,718 MT) and sales were 2662 MT (FY 21 1,857 MT)

I can appreciate the weather may have held up production, but why is there still 334MT sat there waiting to be sold when the sales target was 4,000?

Just checked & came through today - hope yours did too!

I was going to ask the same, no dividend since Mar-15th and the November one came through on time. I'm with IG as well

Good question - I’ve been following Trin since it was about 6p in 2017 and the major factors for me are slow YoY growth, no dividend and SPT weighing on profitability whenever the oil price is high

I guess until larger investors can see material change in the bopd output then the share price will be perceivably below par

Very broad reasons but I’ve read plenty of coverage in the past 4-5 years with analysts saying Trin should be 30p+ (pre consolidation) and it’s nowhere near, something’s keeping it down!

Excerpt below from recent article in Investors' Chronicle - TRIN's b/e is very low $29.2 - The upside on the current price is ridiculous

It’s worth noting, too, that although housebroker Cenkos Securities predicts Trinity’s reported operating profit will soar from $2.9mn to $7.4mn in 2022 based on 21 per cent higher revenue of $81.8mn, these estimates only factor in an average realised oil price of $74.3 a barrel. WTI hit a high of $113 a barrel this week, so even allowing for a 10 per cent discount on the spot rate, Trinity is still realising $102 a barrel. Furthermore, the company has only hedged 50 per cent of its 3,116 bopd budgeted production for 2022. If current prices hold for the rest of the year, then Trinity’s operating profit could be heading for double Cenkos’s current estimate even after factoring in higher Supplemental Petroleum Tax charges.

Great opportunity at these levels, long-term hold

Great, I hope they do improve the comms with the market and with lots of positive information to announce

Be interested to see how the SP develops over the next year - good luck & hope it soars!

I've followed TRIN since 2016/17 when it was at 6p a share, bought and sold a few times in between - it has been the same every Final Results day where the price falls on good news. Why? The valuation of the business has stagnated in the past 3 years, there is the odd note in the investor chronicle pushing a 38p target but there doesn't seem to be much effort from the business to either drive the share price towards that target, or offer a dividend from the cash reserves that are sitting there.

The Bopd has nudged up in recent years but rarely sets the world alight - there has been a few acquisitions that Malcy's blog has noted as being potentially transformative for the business - but for a long time none of these things have translated into a reality

The past year may have put the brakes on a lot of plans for future growth but at the moment I am finding it difficult to see a case to buy, despite my belief the price should be higher than this. What are others thoughts?

It was originally a Motley Fool article, personally not a fan of their reporting but some good points made

https://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/boohoo-shares-set-to-rebound-after-uk-supply-chain-scandal-200817

The IG article above was quite good

What is interesting, when you look at the number of people that search for boohoo monthly (using google adwords keyword tool) is that in the past two months, the search volume has been the same as Christmas last year. On the face of it, it does look like the initial spike in May/June has plateaued but the current trend is that more people are searching for the company consistently since before lockdown, so as long as this is translating into sales it's a positive signal, albeit a small factor

GLA

I have held TRIN in the past but not currently, my reservation is that I can't see what they are looking to do to increase shareholder value. There is 30p+ being touted as a target price however as others have said previously that cash has been sitting there and no dividend despite stable performance

I don't have a huge amount of experience to comment either way but surely a dividend that the business can commit to and a sensible process to grow the bopd to average 4,000 in the short term surely needs to be in place before the company can start to increase in value?

At the moment it seems that every quarterly review is met by "solid results, same as before... what next?"

Sonic I agree, a lot has been said on here about the board of directors etc. but we musn't forget they all bought in to the accelerated bookbuild and there are plenty of positive hints in recent RNS'

- Debt being paid down from strong existing cashflow
- URU results indicated MRSSG now operating on OVER A$4m a month, which is solid growth and BPH is working to full capacity
- Shed purchased which adds an asset and saves on monthly payments

There is so much in the way of positives, you can forget the associations with URU, this is a proper business, growing, employing new staff, increasing revenue, increasing profits, reducing debt and positioning itself as a market leader in the services it offers.

I agree Geeforce, for what it's worth my take is that the index on AIM will still fall in the short term but it will be the "maybe" companies out there which will suffer i.e. those not even generating revenue and their futures hinging on discoveries etc. Oil stocks have also been taking a nosedive in recent weeks which hasn't helped

For MRS, the business has undertaken a huge turnaround, loss to profit, shaken off all of the legacy issues and we're just waiting for confirmation that the last big hurdle (debt refinancing) has been sorted and they will be almost certainly be projecting solid growth for 2019.

The comms hasn't been amazing but all the snippets are pointing to a good set of results and hopefully a very positive operational update on the current trading activity which, at a current MCAP of less than £12m, can only be upwards from here

Based on what was offered at the time the two 100ks just after 12 were both buys, the 150k was a sell but the buying has been much better today - onwards and upwards from here

Getting ridiculous now! SPT 100% needs reform but with OPEC cutting production and most major oiler's including Russia want oil well over the $60 range I think it'll continue to move back up over the next few weeks

Trin is still very well placed and unless i'm missing something think we're majorly undervalued

Ignore that! Cancelled, back to being undervalued, as you were...

Just seen a buy printed for 16.75p??

Drop today was what I feared but I think it's been overdone, this is now a priced at a big discount to the recent placing, the p/e is less than 3 and although Whitman Howard's price targets have seemed high for over a year now they should be a lot, lot closer than today's price.

Read through TXP's results this morning, they've dropped but looks like the floor has been found at 15p - They are still burning through a fair amount of cash to increase production so imo the fall in oil price will hit them harder - we've seen a drop as expected this morning but the longer-term picture is that TRIN has set themselves up well to cope with the fall in price and with no debt to service that for me lessens any concern and all Trinidad oilers are confident that Petrotrin won't cause any issues

Will it continue to slide? No idea but the Saudi's will cut production to put a floor on the drop and although Trump seems desperate to bring the price down hopefully that will see us push back towards $60 - I think TRIN is very undervalued and under the recent placing price we're now in bargain territory

We’ll find out soon enough but what do you think market reaction will be for Trin following the sharp drop in price? Balance of it is that we’re still profitable per barrel and as you say any further drop releases SPT payment but if I remember isn’t that taken from a three month average?

Hi GO Really interesting response - from the notes I read from the T & T budget summary the taxation on oil companies is delivering big revenue for the government so maybe the fall in WTI will force their hand to increase production. I started researching TRIN after the relisting when it was at 6p so where the business is reporting from now; strong, stable, debt-free, low break-even and profitable, in my opinion they’ve done an excellent job & you are right, if anyone who wanted to buy missed out on the placing they can now do so Short-term we may sit around this price, who knows, but I hold with confidence, MH