focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Are we due a Q2 update soon? Feels pretty vital to confirm the outlook from Q1 report is performing as expected
Please correct if maths is wrong on forecast but based on a few notes in Final Results & Q1 update
- Sales in Q1 2,772 tons (924mt avg. a month)
- Avg. sales price MT last year was £726
- TGR holding and executing on orders with avg. monthly volumes of 1,200tons
- Production & sales revenue to exceed FY23 (£2.89m before the end of August)
Q1 revenue est. (£2,772.00 x £726) = £2,012,472
Q2 revenue methodology:
- 1,200t monthly sales @ £631mt (15% discount) = £1,893,300
Roll that across Q3 & Q4 - FY £7,691,472.00 revenue
Very broad stroke numbers and be interested to get views, capacity utilisation is due to be at c.50% by now - the main thing the market will want to see is reiteration that cash position has strengthened so there's no hint of an upcoming raise
But with the prepayment agreement, ongoing sales receipts and unsold production from last year being cleared through you'd like to think this will be confirmed in next update
Not sure how up to date it is but there's a website (Market Screener) that has Nicolas Petitjean listed with 4.1m shares, Christian Dennis 1.2m shares, if Christian you'd hope by now they're nearly finished working through
The relentless block sells over the past few weeks makes me wonder if Christian St John-Dennis is selling his stake in the company, he left as a director at the end of July (23rd)
Anyone else think this might be the case or is this fruitless straw-clutching? I'd like to think we might see a bounce once those sells are finished
It's not necessarily comparing apples with apples but it's good enough for a Tuesday morning musing
Graphite One in the US Mcap $139.6m - they're not even up and running for production and their best case scenario outlined is approx 40ktpa
For all of the perceived faults around corporate governance, TGR has delivered capacity of 30ktpa, they're producing and revenue generating with one of the lowest cost bases of any comparable miner - the demand may soften in the next 6-12 months but they get their heads down and sell into their existing network, the global demand will recover and they're in one of the best positions outside of China to capitalise on it
The current share price is a big issue and it's not helping PIs remain patient, but for all of the recent noise I still believe this will come good
GLA
This was mentioned (albeit briefly) in the results - I would like more information & clarity on this too:
“The sub-committee of the Board comprising the Independent NEDs is continuing to look at the alternative options to meet the objective of developing a downstream and advanced materials business within the Company The Company plans to provide a more detailed update to the market once these options have been fully evaluated.”
I will openly admit to taking a simpletons approach on this calculation but looking through the annual report, excl. the investment activity, cashflow for operations burned through an average of £180,820 a month
1Q24 sales included an inventory build up from previous year to facilitate the growth so without any near term investments, is the company not in a position for the next few months of working with suppliers to pays your bills on time
It looks reasonably tight, but very manageable when sales are increasing at the rate stated (+245%)
2,772mt sales in 1Q24 at last years avg. price of £726 = £2,012,472
TGR may need to fundraise for the next stage of growth and expansion, but until that point it looks as though they can be self-sustainable and cash generative by the end of the year
Tomorrowtoday, I know you want the price lower so you can buy back in - why would they state who the other buyer was for the Mozambique asset if a binding agreement is in place?
Yes, TGR/TG element is frustrating but that will take patience, Shishir has demonstrated in the past few months they can find workarounds for challenges to the business and every potential downside has been met with a solution to date.
Positive statements - Upwards of 6,000 tons in 1Q23 & Mozambique acquisition expected in “very near future”
Been an up and down few months but hopefully all in the clear now
Shishir should now put LawrenceH in charge of PR and we’ll be flying…
Obviously questions around cash needs not answered fully until posted in black & white, however I felt Shishir answered concerns directly and in detail
With SP I was unsure whether to purchase at these levels to average down, the privatisation & TSG acquisition were two key points - I feel more comfortable to do so now and to look ahead to positive future updates
"We have a clearly defined strategy in place, focused on increasing our cash generation to enable us to fund future growth initiatives and deliver cash returns to shareholders."
Could a small dividend finally surface in a year or two? One can dream
This looks to be in response to a number of shareholders voicing concerns & especially in regards to the raise, all of a similar nature
While everything concrete may be in public domain via RNS if there is an opportunity to better clarify and address concerns to shareholders this should only be a good thing
I did get in touch with Battery Minerals on the off chance they might indicate either way
Reply this morning was "No changes, we will update the market as appropriate"
So can only assume it'll be completed by the end of the month as planned, and hopefully some good news to stop the rot
These were two snippets I got in an email reply Jun-29
"We will be able to offer hard figures post completion of the annual audit which is currently in process. The information shared is based on the evolving situation. The company is in growth and development mode with many activities in the pipeline. We have no plans to have any placing in the current situation of the share price."
&
"Unfortunately we are unable to disclose numbers which we haven't announced, However, as mentioned in the last update, we have been able to complete debottlenecking of Vatomina. Accordingly revenues are expected to grow too, but please be conscious this is prospective since the RNS.
Please do compare TGR with other graphite companies, the amount of work, execution and actual delivery of projects in operations done with the capital we have raised is rare to find, we hope markets will start valuing this more. "
On the back of a terrible 6 months, be interested to get shareholder views on why they still have confidence in the company delivering on promises in the interests of shareholders - today update inspiring another kicking to the sp
SP is painful viewing at the moment, marching its way down to the 10s
I had confirmation from company there was no plans to raise "at these levels", this has been mentioned by a few posters who have also enquired. Unless someone knows something we don't the company need to be really clear on cash position - avg. price is around 70 so not a happy holder at the moment