focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
It'll be interesting to see the result of the GM, I've decided to vote against the requisition group. Objectively, had it been Murat & Isabel in isolation having served as NEDs, both resigned and having seen the inner workings of the company, I think the majority of shareholders, me included, based on share price and company performance would have voted for them.
However, the other two proposed directors, Rollins & Koot, their past activity does not signal a good outcome for investors. As it is, I (and likely many other long-term posters) are sitting on a significant loss - currently, no outcome looks like a good one. But when I weigh it up, what gives the better chance of keeping the business afloat - the requisition group have given no indication on how they will plug the working capital gap, or how they propose to solve the fundraising issue. It's all well and good getting the governance sorted, but it's a lot of salaries to be paid and still without the cash to do so
Hopefully the investor meet next week will see Shishir tackle every question head on and not cherry pick as has been the case with previous IMs
One thing I've noticed on the BB recently is there is obviously people from both sides posting to try and influence and sway opinion. The black and white for me was I felt the requisition response was pretty fair and it's a case now to back whichever group can deliver on the funding.
I spent a bit of time looking at all the companies on the Optiva website that they did the ipo for, can’t see a single one which has delivered shareholders a positive return + a few are suspended / delisted. Is that how a risk here? Yes, but not a lot of data to suggest Optiva have a positive influence on the company
Battery Minerals (now Waratah) still hold their tranche 2 shares plus a few left over from tranche 1 as of their latest trading update (think late April)
Based on dummy quotes I've seen over past few days I am pretty confident the 200k at 4.20 is a buy - the SP continues to sink and is now in beyond atrocious territory, but someone over past few days has picked up some decent chunks, I've seen a 400k purchase and some 100k / 200ks over the past few days
Have noticed a Twitter handle pop up "Tirupati Holders", bit of digging into the followers and recurring theme is they are either based in India or have liked company tweets in the past - if this has been setup by the company or someone affiliated it's extremely embarrassing and needs to be taken down immediately, hope that's not the case.
I agree with this - there is certainly issues that have happened behind the scenes which have caused Isabel & Murat to resign, which will undoubtedly be reasons for shareholders to be concerned - but having found Leo Koot on Twitter he looks to be one of the CLN holders who wasn't paid interest on time last year. Both himself & Mark Rollins connected via Beacon Energy and as you point out - I can't see how they bring true independent governance, not least taking the key points that neither have demonstrable experience in running a graphite operation.
Hopefully, though, this requisition letter has given the company a push in the right direction to a) be more transparent in terms of the related party transactions which have long held concern in terms of who's actually benefitting and b) get the right appointments in place to drive the company forward
As HarChris mentions the cash burn rate since the £1m raise is the key concern at the moment, that working capital agreement is crucial
The £189k cash looks very worrying especially considering loans payable in next few months + production only running intermittently I.e. when some cash comes in, but I would say the shares purchased by Alistair 20th March must have been done with some confidence that there’s some light at the end of the tunnel in respects to the cash constraint
Faint hope, but something I’m clinging onto
Last six months revenue = £1,757.229, using the £660 avg. basket price it looks like only 2,662 tons sold, averaging 444 a month. Very much feels like the entire company is on life support until new capital injection comes through - I read the £30m DFI note, seems a long shot considering the struggles in the past year to raise any working capital funding
I've welcomed the acknowledgement of a few concerns e.g. pranagraf - however - progress dependent on new independent additions reads and means that clarity there is a long way off yet
In short - we need new appointments and cash, no change from the last six months and if anything, the need for both has compounded in that time. Concerned holder.
Obviously a lot of behind the scenes issues with NEDs but strangest has been Murat Erden:
"The establishment of an advisory board of which Mr Erden will be the inaugural member."
So, despite resigning for whatever reason, relationship with co was strong enough that he agreed to stay on as an advisor, also when Shishir visited operations in madagascar in Feb he was on the trip - between then and early-May relations appear to have soured greatly if he hasn't maintained commitment to his share subscription + has his name against the recommended new board
Presuming this advisory board is another thing which has failed to materialise - strange.
Just as the SP begun to stabilise we could do without more uncertainty. But as has been the way over the past few months it circles back to Shishir - no trading update and no promised investor meet, RNS virtually promising the VAT refund which still hasn’t materialised
I don’t think ousting a chief executive who has so many shares is a good idea, however, the larger concern is why the NEDs who left are looking to do this - what do they know / have seen which we aren’t privy to - it’s worrying
Disappointed that the investor meet still hasn’t been called, especially as there is still uncertainty until debt finance is agreed or the VAT refund finally lands. Agree with Plaza that next week holds potential for a wave of buying but with the SP decline in recent months this will only happen if there’s a stronger forward looking outlook
Shishir can provide this with an interview so I’m hoping this is called asap in April
Very pleased to see that this morning - the only thing missing from premium order update was volume figures and the concrete commitment of a monthly shipment, but combined with a director purchase we're beginning to see shoots of confidence which will hopefully provide the base for a re-rate
I have been making myself a nuisance on email about this
13th March: “We will be scheduling an IMC and information will be released to markets as it is finalised.”
So it does still seem to be in the works but as I keep reiterating, whilst the SP continues to drop the sentiment worsens and it gets harder and harder to recover
For me, the VAT refund had been in the works for months, as was the DFI arrangements so the fact they still haven’t landed is really poor. Plus a previous RNS said 1,000 - 1,200 was operational breakeven when monthly volume was 800/month (that might need a bit of fact checking), the fact we’re now at 1,500 min target, and still not there, is really concerning - why 300+ tonnes now needed to be in the green, plus why are we not there consistently when again, previous RNS said company was executing orders of 1,200 a month consistently and growing - have we lost customers? Why has all the recent enquiries that’s been mentioned not transitioned into sales?
When you’re at 4.5p a share and the only thing you can do is dribble out an RNS that says we’ve done a bit of drilling when we’re 50k tpa behind where we initially targeted for 2024 and putting out a proactive investor interview where we’re still reiterating that we’re in a good position post-China restrictions (it’s been 5+ months already, why haven’t we seen tangible improvement) just tells the market there’s no good news in the pipeline
Mulling it over tomorrowtoday does make a good point, if Shishir’s limited company’s are going to supply the equipment for the PCUs, why isn’t he demonstrating those relationships are favourable for TG
Current position:
- Alistair has sent a couple of very considered emails which gives me faint hope that things will improve
- the current situation is partly graphite market but majority investor market not trusting Poddar ownership and motives
- Until Shishir clearly demonstrates to the market they can trust the company (ownership + governance) we are going nowhere unfortunately
Genuine question on this - if everything is passed through and verified via the auditors how would you be able to grossly inflate the cost of the equipment without it being red flagged?
Bit of musing but I’ve been hoping to see a battery minerals holding rns to say they’ve cleared their holding, at least it would explain some of the 1m+ purchases over the past couple of weeks and offer some indication the large sells are coming to a close
There can’t be many other holders wanting to offload that much volume at this level
There is still little to cheer and the latest updates have unfortunately appeared like a desperate attempt at getting some good news out, however, I think for potential investors looking in now the risk reward has suddenly increased sizeably in their favour
I do believe Shishir is committed to being listed, I do however also still believe that the TSG/Pranagraf links continue to be a key factor in mistrust and his promised investor meet could be a key opportunity for him to tackle this head on
I did receive a very considered email from Alistair about his new role so I am hopeful that comms will improve and, hopefully, there will be an actual turning point so the SP begins to start moving higher
One of the important things I think at the investor meet which was promised is to get clarity on where they spend their time. Both Shishir and Puruvi are running all the private businesses (which should be under TGR umbrella) - but it would be galling for shareholders if their time distribution has been weighted towards Pranagraf and that's why TGR progress has slowed
As said earlier, the funding news looks on the face of it, like an opportunity to turn a corner, but until money is in the business then it means nothing, these have all been mentioned in RNS updates for months
Overall, reassurance on multiple fronts - finance in the short term looks to be all but sorted $2m VAT refund and a loan from a shady Madagascan bank will be good as long as the terms are ok
The team balance is not good - hopefully Alistair appears on the investor meet to present his credentials - but they really need to add some weight and experience with new hires
Glad Shishir has explicitly said the company won’t go private, this hasn’t (and won’t) reassure investors on all fronts, but I’m glad a couple of things have been cleared up for now, hope the market responds positively
Doing a bit of digging and any reassurances here would be good (e.g. these are two completely different scenarios) however, some wording in the RNS feels all too familiar
There's a mention of Stratmin Global Resources PLC here: https://tirupatigraphite.tradeindia.com/ - a few years ago Shishir looks to have been appointed operations and marketing director, this co. ceased to exist on the market in 2017 and although I haven't gone too deep into the details, it reads as though there was a takeover and the money never arrived because of regulatory blocks (different scenario but feels similar to TSG failed acquisition)
At the time they had a vested interest in one of the Tirupati graphite businesses and shares were owned by Tirupati Carbons & Chemicals Pvt. Ltd - Shishir being majority shareholder - he then went on to get a mining license for TCCpvt later that year 12.91ha: https://forestsclearance.nic.in/writereaddata/FormA/Miningletter/1011412281214E2TWXEktaMiningPlanwithoutcoveringletter-1-209.pdf
I guess the concern looking at how TGR has been run in the past few months is that we're heading into similar territory - has TGR just been a long fundraising exercise to ensure the private tirupati businesses have developed assets they can pick up for next to nothing?