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Disappointing to see where we are at the moment, oil price is on the slide yet Trinity remain profitable, sadly SPT will dent this and no sign on the horizon of reform but nevertheless growing production will see us remain profitable which is still a strong position to be in
I got it wrong but I genuinely thought we would be sitting at least 5p higher by now, continuing to hold and will add where I can at these prices and as we have seen before re-rates can always spark out of nowhere for Trin
I think it's a case of one major seller, probably see another TR1 soon and overall market conditions
The Q3 update was solid but I think investors may have been hoping for something exciting, whereas TRIN are painting a picture of stable and consistent growth
I think we'll get some surprises along the way going into 2019, sell the west coast asset for higher than previously agreed, local acquisitions... I wonder if BD is building the company into a perfect target for acquisition for 2020/21
All good and positive news i think
Trinity
A Q3 update from Trinity this morning with production at 2,734 b/d, this is up 9% y/y but down 3% q/q due to a well being offline for two months.
There is much going on with 6 rcp’s, 38 workovers and 2 infill development spudded in the quarter which will be completed with first production in early Q4. Since the quarter end 2 new infill wells have been spudded with 2 more due in the latter part of the quarter. At the Trintes field the intensive workover and reactivation work done in the quarter has increased the number of wells on production from 17 to 31.
The outlook for Trinity is exceptional, by Q1 2019 all 6 wells are expected to be on production boosting production and profitability from what is very high quality organic growth. With the balance sheet decks cleared and moving forward debt free Trinity is in a very powerful position indeed.
This caught my attention - maybe reading too much into it but is that signalling some potential acquisitions if the price is right?
"grow organically and to position itself to take advantage of the significant number of medium to longer term opportunities that may arise locally."
Price is definitely not where we want it to be that's for sure. Q3 update should be this week or next but now we are debt free we should be able to kick on from here. I am surprised the SP hasn't accelerated although I think some positive forward-looking statements from the board in the next update will help that!
I added some more the other day when it opened up at 15p, not a huge amount but i was happy with the opportunity. It is all opinion etc. etc. and market will dictate the price but I would consider anything under 18p at the moment a great opportunity and will be confident the price will move back into the 20s before we hit 2019
I have been holding on and off since 6p and probably more confident now (hopefully i'm right!) than i've ever been i'm just waiting patiently until that gets reflected in the price!
Price can only be down to facilitating a seller because 17.2p is a crazy valuation!
TRIN has been in a similar pattern for the 2 years I have held.. will just start rising out of seemingly nowhere. Most AIM companies I research are saddled in debt so TRIN is in a fantastic position imo and any dips here are perfect opportunities for new investors
Another share I am invested in had a TR1 announcement but the owner had also announced externally they were using the funds to finance the launch of another business but fully intended to keep the rest of their holding so there's always a variety of reasons and not always negative so I wouldn't be concerned on one seller as well
Zero debt for me was key for TRIN - would love a reform of SPT because that would be a massive boost but overall long-term prospects are great.
Cash position strong and unsurprised to see a drop in SP because it's AIM! but would not be surprised to see this re-rate out of the blue back to the 23-24p range within the next couple of months. GLA
I got it wrong a few months ago buying the dip before the fundraise at 20p, bought more at 16p and would continue to buy now, so confident in the future for TRIN, there's been 2 major re-rates in the past year that happened fast and exponentially, this feels the same i could see 22p by the end of the week
He'll be paid to cover the companies which i think a lot of the readers of his blog will know, he has been bullish on TRIN for a while but has also covered the downsides which has provided balance - no reason for his blog today to move the price too much and i also think the debt-free announcement was already known to the market
Personally - this feels much like a year or so ago when the price was being held around the 15p level - will just take patience and no doubt it'll spark on a catalyst and shoot up somewhere down the line!
This may not be the specific project but this is the sort of work they're currently doing as part of the expansion: https://bne.com.au/corporate/projects/bne-projects/current-projects/bne-auto-mall-stages-1-3
Potentially, they are focusing on drilling wells that are currently fully funded but their margins aren't as good as Trin's which could mean they will have to raise for the next set but they are focusing on aggressive growth, MCAP of less than £20m and heading towards a target of 2,000 bopd from memory so could be a better short term look
Firstly. what a plonker - bought back in a couple of weeks ago as the recent drop i felt offered an opportunity, my original target price was 24p when I purchased from 6p up to 16p, it never looked like getting over the 20p region but trading some within the 15-19p range offered some small rewards
This morning, usual checks across the board... what! Trin was always the very safe share that I never thought would pull something like this
However, TXP AGM offered some interesting insight into T&T and for Trin low-cost workovers etc. can't carry on forever if the company wants to continue growing, the work was highly profitable but with continual debt obligations to pay down was there going to be enough cash to invest in growth while having enough cash to deal with the day to day
15p - gift, but I would say anything below 18p is still a gift bearing in mind the new influx of shares, when I get some more cash i will happily buy more if it drops any further but this is now, unfortunately, one to lock away and forget about for two years
https://twitter.com/touchstoneexp/status/1006512118772822016?s=21