Tamboran Resources Corp. Share Chat (TBN.US)

Northern Territory Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro confirmed that gas from the massive Beetaloo Basin will begin flowing in as little as 100 days. The resources sector is rallying behind this milestone, viewing the remote, highly prolific basin as a vital answer to impending domestic and east coast energy shortages…

LongK agreed…. our grandkids will be well rewarded 🔥

It probably will not but this is going to still be a long road either way. Many ups and downs over the next years to come. Hope for a decent return.

Great update and Todd is v impressive but short term market won't like the farm down deal delay..

Thanks for the update Newto. I'll check that out. Appreciate it.

Thank you for the updates, good to hear that the difficulties in making the change over to Tamboran have been overcome, that should be a nice driver for tamborans share price.

Broker had this .

Tamboran Resources raises A$24.8 million in unregistered CDI placement at A$0.25 each

Tamboran Resources settled a retail entitlement offer on May 1, 2026,

issuing 99,375,000 CHESS Depositary Interests for gross proceeds of A$ 24.8

million.

* CDIs were priced at A$ 0.25 each, underpinned by 496,875 shares of

common stock, with each CDI representing 1/200th of a common share.

* Offering targeted existing shareholders in selected non-US

jurisdictions, relying on Regulation S exemption from Securities Act

registration.

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/TBN/

Does not have it .

I show a lot cap under $1B.

3 pm $35.27...-0.83 (-2.30%) ...Bid: 35.01...Ask: 35.39....Spread: 0.38 (1.085%)

Market Cap: $1.91b

Bought some for $35 the 9th April Placing price .

Falcon Oil & Gas Now..17.5p

Share Price..35.96...0.11 (0.31%) ...Bid: 35.03...Ask: 36.00...Spread: 0.97 (2.769%)

Big pull back since last look 1st April , more then 20%

9th April Placing at $35

Falcon Oil & Gas Now..17p

1st April Share Price:..45.005... -4.99 (-9.98%) ...Bid: 42.00...Ask: 52.00...Spread: 10.00 (23.81%)

Share Price:..45.005... -4.99 (-9.98%) ...Bid: 42.00...Ask: 52.00...Spread: 10.00 (23.81%)

Market Cap: $2.41b

Much better then my last look 6th January .

Share Price: 26.70..Bid: 26.01...Ask: 26.60...Change: 0.00 (0.00%) ..Spread: 0.59 (2.268%)

Falcon Oil & Gas Now..19.20p

Some more coverage on the TBN share valuation. Never hurts when it is in a national newspaper, eh??

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/markets-news/Tipranks/1703223/tipranks-perfect-10-picks-2-stocks-that-hit-all-the-right-boxes/

Https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/rbc-upgrades-tamboran-resources-stock-rating-on-beetaloo-momentum-93CH-4643817

GR Production Services Pty Ltd (GRPS), has been awarded a five-year contract by Sturt Plateau Compression Facility Sub Pty Ltd as trustee for the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility Sub Trust (SPCF Co), an entity indirectly owned 50% by Tamboran Resources Corporation (ASX: TBN) and 50% by Daly Waters Infrastructure, LP, for the provision of operations and maintenance services (O&M services) to the Sturt Plateau

Compression Facility, located in the Beetaloo Basin, Northern Territory. The estimated contract value over the five-year period is $57 million. The contract includes an option to extend the

agreement by a further three years. GRPS will assume responsibility for the operation of the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility, including with respect

to regulatory compliance, production performance, maintenance, asset integrity management and HSE compliance. GRPS has previously supported SPCF Co through completion of the operational readiness phase of the Sturt

Plateau Compression Facility, establishing operational capability.

Commenting on the contact award, GRPS Chief Executive Officer, Cameron Wills, said: "GRPS is proud to partner with SPCF Co on a project that will play an important role in unlocking the significant gas potential of the Beetaloo Basin in the Northern Territory. We are pleased to continue our collaboration, safely operating and maintaining SPCF Co's assets while contributing to sustainable growth and strong performance

outcomes."

GR Engineering's Managing Director, Tony Patrizi, stated:

"We look forward to operating and maintaining the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility and working closely with SPCF Co to deliver safe, reliable, and successful outcomes over the life of the project. The award of this O&M contract further establishes GRPS' capabilities of being a strong and reliable service provider to our Australian

Unfortunately, I don't subscribe to the Financial Times. What I did find was a website names the "Global Energy Flow". If we don't get the world's energy supply requirements fixed soon, we're in a heap of trouble. Our entire global energy requirements will suffer. GDP = Energy

https://global-energy-flow.com/#gas

Also, here's a YouTube video entitled "The Largest Energy Shock On Record Is Worse Than You Think". I'm not an energy guy, but any comments here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qixYzhMnC0

Https://ig.ft.com/global-energy-flows/

805 -- surprisingly Inpex is in that group of Asian sovereign funds I was referring to. I am fairly sure that the Japanese government is the largest shareholder of Inpex.

The situation with less reliability of LNG coming from Qatar in the future seems to be driving the HotCopper posts more towards seeing a more favorable Farm Down coming from Mitsui or possibly the Korean sovereign fun???

Yeah I have been following the tax initiative too. Learned a little about the process for making laws there. It is interesting. If it makes the budget, it will take months before anything is agreed upon. As I understand it, Albanese has to propose it (maybe I misunderstood this part). But if it is proposed it will require deal cutting between parties which might not be possible so it would die. I can see tweaking the deduction amount/timeframe and/or the up lift multiplier. I think that can be done without chilling investment. Or maybe royalties early and less later. I can understand why many down under would be upset under the circumstances. PRRT seems like a hard sell to everyday folks regardless of the longterm benefits. Sounds like there is a lot a pressure to do something. Politicians have short shelf lives so convincing them to take the “long term” investment approach is like paddling up stream without a paddle particularly when the current is strong. They know that. So I suspect something will happen but not to the extent of a 25% export tax. Sky is falling over on the HC chat board. I think whatever happens development will be fine.

I read that once IOB’s are invited and received a bidding process begins which can take some time. Def wants some good news but I feel like TBN could wait longer and have better leverage after they have gas going to market. With this equity raise it seems like no pressure now. Curious why we would want an Asian sovereign fund? I would think a well known name in the gas industry would be better for us. Like DWE did with INPEX. Cheers.

805. There's probably a good chance that Tamboran already has one or two prospective Farm Down companies on their short list already.

TBN is most likely slow walking the Farm Down process due to the current delay in clearing the merger with the SCC until the Russian has been completely sealed out of any part of TBN along with some clarity that there won't be any large government windfall tax on LNG )especially if one of the Farm Down candidates is an Asian Sovereign Fund).

There were a couple of Aussie news organizations putting out reports today that Prime minister Albanese is now not in favor of this Green's led initiative, but TBN would most likely want to see the next budget on May 14th to be sure there is either no windfall tax or a very minor one??

Curious as I was looking over TBN’s presentation about the equity raise. It notes they are targeting IBO’s by mid 2026. Does this mean TBN expects to have bids submitted mid 2026 and then negotiations start? I was reading this is how it unfolds. So that would put any announcement on a farm out deal later in 2026. Is that what others understand and anticipate?

BW.

I won’t if your evaluation at $2000 a share is right.🙏

As an insider, I see Mr. Stoneburner is still buying shares (8,403 TBN bought on 4/15/2026). That's a good sign.

Handing out shares like candy at Halloween.

Norway is an example being thrown around in the debate right now but I think it would really hard to replaced what Norway had done for a many many reasons.

So…I think we will see some incremental change and not see a total overhaul. And I think this is the biggest issue we are facing in terms of how the current and future farm outs come to fruition.

Sorry for the typos. Hard with a phone. While the HC board is proffering its own tilt in the export tax debate, I thought I would post what I understands thus far. The current tax in place is called the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT). It’s a profit based tax and not a production/export tax. Super profits are taxed at a 40% rate. The problems is, there are deductions a company can make for exploration costs, development costs, and operating costs. The costs can be “up lifted” annually so basically a million dollar in costs ten years ago becomes a two million dollar deductions today. So a project can take decades before paying a PRRT tax. Thus those upset say too little tax is collected. It allows companies to delay paying tax for too long. Companies can forward losses for many years. The uplift idea was designed to encourage risky investments but opposition says it’s too mature for generous deductions now.

On the other side of the argument, companies argue that without generous deductions projects will not happen and investors will go elsewhere where investment is encouraged. PRRT is designed to pay more once projects become highly profitable.

A flat tax or windfall tax would generate revenue immediately and be tied to high prices and not long term profits. At the moment, with high prices, the accusation is these companies are racking up record profits which they can avoid paying taxes on by claiming past deductions that have grown over time based on the current PRRT formula.

To be clear, an export tax would focus on volume or value. A windfall tax would focus on excess pricing like during a price spike. Basically, the question is should Australia have a system that promotes long term investment or move to something that captures revenue now. But that might be a little easy of an explanation.

So let’s assume the uplift rate is 10% under the current model (I could not figure out what it is exactly). But if a new company spends 20 billion in construction costs and 5 billion in exploration costs it will have a total starting costs of 25 billion. After ten years, that 25 billion can become 60 billion in deductions.

Let’s say annual profits after all is said and done is 7 billion. Part of the 60 billion can be used to write off the profit resulting in 0 taxable profit for years.

The reality is in this current environment where Australia is short on energy and cost of living/energy is very high, most people are very upset and feel like these companies are getting away without paying their fair share. Both sides appear to me to be correct.

Other countries have even higher taxes but have done this through partial state ownership of some of the projects and continue to see investment. However, there is a lot of reasons why it might work in those countries and not work in Australia unless there is a major reform. Norway is an example being thrown around in the debate right now but I think it

Long, I think have assumed that the reason for the raise was to project strength in the negotiation process and perhaps they were getting low-balled. That is, the big fish are aware that TBN had funding obligations that would soon come to fruition and thus had lower offers. But I think there are other factors at play here. I think the 25% export tax is a big issue looking over the negotiations and I cannot imagine any announcement until after that becomes clearer. It’s my understanding that will occur in early May. I think having secured funding could also give TBN the option of putting the farm out on pause while more wells are drilled and gas goes to market.

The drop in share price is typical for an equity offer. My understanding is the institutional offering went well and TBN got what they planned for. Now we are in the retail portion which is getting interesting because as I type this TBN just hit 35/share which where the retail offering was priced at. If it drops further, I think that is a bad sign because one could purchase shares cheaper on the open market. But maybe I am wrong. In any event, we will know more in about 1.5 weeks when the retail portion concludes.

From what I can glean, there is not going to be a 25% import tax. However, something will happen because there is immense pressure on the government regarding cost of living prices/energy prices. If I was a major who wanted to export the gas I would want to know how this playout. My guess it the export tax falls around 10%.

There also seems to be a pressure campaign from Inpex and Japan about cutting some of the “red and green” tape so development can speed up. Even to the point of Japan saying if this does not happen, we will go elsewhere there is less red and green tape. So…my take is the politics around this will become a large catalyst behind the stock price. Hence, why I found it odd to do the raise now in the mist of the foggy political landscape. However, if it was done to show strength in negotiating the farm-out process, that would make sense to me. I am a layperson so this is a none AI uniformed theory. I also agree about BS….def to his benefit to let TBN prove up the asset then to do anything with his acres at this time (other than the piolet well area).

Thanx Newt, always appreciate your thoughts.

805 -- this ridiculous proposed windfall tax could be a major headache for Tamboran and many others. There have been comments in the Aussie press that up to $70 billion in proposed expansions by the existing LNG producers in Australia (Santos, Woodside, Chevron and Shell) could be cancelled or severely curtained if the idiots in Canberra go ahead with this proposed tax.

From the Guardian newspaper today:

"Bosses of Santos, Woodside, Chevron and Shell asked to give evidence to Greens-led gas tax inquiry

Labor is under pressure to impose a new 25% export tax amid soaring prices from the global fuel shock"

The Japanese Ambassador to Australia (on March 25th) gave a very stern speech that the Aussie gov't could risk major shifts in Japanese and Aussie relations if this tax goes ahead, and the Japanese Prime Minister is now expected in Canberra before any vote on this tax takes place in May.

I am not sure how this would be affecting the current Farm Down negotiations, but it certainly can't be helping. Even though the war with Iran has altered the future sources for LNG away from the Gulf -- it would certainly help deflect this windfall tax if the Hormuz gets open and both oil and LNG begin to move through the Hormuz -- before any vote on this tax takes place. Australia only has enough gas and diesel for another month - and this is driving some of the windfall tax popularity, but Albanese said yesterday that 73 tankers (from America and Singapore I believe) are on route to Australia -- so that might help deflect this stupid tax as well??

Longknife: -- I don't think this massive fund raise by TBN (which is already close to 90% complete) was totally about this proposed windfall tax. I am fairly sure it was more about hitting the markets while the stock was HOT ($50 US) and getting the underwriters to guarantee the placements in exchange for a huge price drop of $15 per share?? The consensus seems to be more about removing any risk of funds running out later this year and now moving that funding through into 2028. This will give TBN more than enough funds to cover the south Pilot zone drilling of the SSH7 and SSH8, along with the Santos 25% obligations, and further exploration in the Eastern checkerboard zone that could eventually lead to a second TBN Farm Down.

Anyone following or have insight into the proposed export gas tax? I think early May there should be an official position as they are debating it as we speak. 25% seems aggressive and would shun further investment. I think this is going to put downward pressure on TBN which makes me question the timing of this equity raise. I wonder if a farm out deal hinges on this information. I guess in two weeks we will see how the remainder of the raise went with retail investors. As we approach the 35/share USD which is what TBN priced the shares at I wonder if retails investors will shun the offer if you they buy more share for less than 35 on the open market.

Have there been any news releases in regards to what DW plans to do with their acreage? It really seems like they plan to do nothing until TBN and BR (empire), (of whom BS has major interests) have taken all of the risk of proving up the ground. He has enough control over both companies to basically get what he wants done and then enjoy the rewards. Yes, he has put his own capital behind it but I see nothing in what he is doing as a benefit to us shareholders of FOG, TBN or BR. Certainly not in the way it will benefit himself. I am interested in hearing the other side of this.

Also, someone recently mentioned that they thought this latest raise was because we are not getting the numbers we hoped for in a potential farm out. I'm beginning to think this has a little more validity than I originally did. If true, I'd rather they do this raise than give away a big chunk at more bargain basement prices. The offering at $35 did not show a ton of confidence in the (then) current share price. If they had a good farm out deal in the works I think we could have seen better. Again, looking for opposing thoughts here.

I’ve not kept up as perhaps I should. But, in reading some of your comments and having not seen the TBN prospectus, I am curious if Falcon holders were ever to get warrants? That would have surprised me with one exception. POQ has in the past repeatedly told me we didn't need the possible $50-100mm, we might have had a chance to raise when years ago our shares traded above $0.25.

In hindsight we as shareholders have in steps seen ourselves diluted with farm outs etc. By in the end, don't worry about POQ, as his generous plus options will and have come out of our hide.

Apologies - he acquired $250k new shares …now holds a total of £10m+shares..

Purchases $10.5m+ shares…..

C$120m raise…. It’s a great poker move… we will be $50+ within a week… the boys on HotCopper not understanding this move me thinks

…. We don’t need your dosh we can do this ourselves…. So pay up or miss the bus….

All business is business and I get that.. we are on the bus with significant shareholders and operational partners who are also shareholders .. agreed the Sheffield’s are driving but I like the look of our fellow passengers…

Blue, we are def not in the bus with them. They would take out TBN if they could in two seconds and screw shareholders. Watch interviews with BS as he talks about how he learned early on that the gas business is cutthroat and it's not personal...just business. He talks about how he learned the hard way and was screwed over only to learn that is how the business works. At this time, everyone is playing nice as I think DW has much to gain by having TBN prove up the asset. But that could change and BS and DW would do nothing short of what is best for them...not us shareholders.

Long, I still hold some of those shares at or around .32 USD. But I did average down to .11. I would offload some but for my own ego. I am simply holding out to hopefully one day save face with everyone I suggested buy some FOG;) Its a running joke in my circle. FOG...the bird that couldn't fly.

LongK…. True never knock a man who makes a profit…

I’ve taken profits too early, I’ve sold losses to late but on this occasion I’m staying the course… I go back to this always with Tamboran…look at the major shareholders and the operational partners who are also shareholders… they are the A Team proven from the US who cut there teeth and all became billionaires in the Permian Basin…the most successful play of all so far …The Sheffields, H&P, Liberty Energy (Chris Wright US Energy Secretary)… to name a few..

None of these guys need quick buck they are building generational wealth and we are in the Bus with them and the journey has only just begun…

Were we expecting it???? I've been hearing for years from countless people on the FOG board that we were 6 months away from riches! We were at $.35 10 years ago! I my self have thought we won't see that until we start bringing in revenue and get a real buyout. Frankly, I've thought that was 3-4 years away (and still is). As far as waiting, many of us have waited a long time already and don't want to wait another 10 years. It depends on the situation but I would pull some money out beginning in the $.33 US FOG or $50TBN equivalent. (And possibly buy back in later as well) We were almost there but the mkt certainly wasn't supporting any volume either way. Everyone has to make their own decisions on investing but as I was told for my entire life...."you can't go broke taking a profit".

Were we ever expecting to hit 1$ fog equivalent anytime soon? Surely the catalyst to move there is a bigger farm in for tbn away and a bunch of development Wellsplus good gas flows and sales. However that was always the case. The good thing is things are progressing forwards. Even more good news is, as sad as the war situation is, that more eyes than ever are on the beetaloo going forward.

Does it matter if it pulls back to 40, 35 before moving up an onwards if we are all in this for the end game big buy out anyway?

Thanjs Blue W, I have faith in your forecasts.. I like the positive prospects of a happy life circa 2031.. The thoughts of $2k a share are very pleasant!

Thanks JamesL.. It was based on nothing but a gut feeling. I posted some time back that I can see us being a $5bn company in 2028 ($250) and c$20bn c2031 ($2000).. I’m even more convinced now of those levels being achieved!

BlueWiley, kudo's to you! You said TBN would break $50 on Monday (broke to $45.00). Well, it went up to $52.21 and settled back to $50 on Tuesday. You're the man!

.... we will break $50 tomorrow me thinks..

... will we hit $40's today

Oil and Gas majors warn against the perils of a windfall tax in Australia, with investment and energy security at risk.

https://m.miningweekly.com/article/gas-majors-warn-australia-against-taxing-lng-windfall-profits-2026-03-31

Nice couple of weeks! Piper should re-rate once the farm out deal is released. I wish I could be a fly on the wall because my guess is those discussions are heating up with this mess in the Middle East. My guess is a re-rating post farm out release will land north of $100/share. Lonnnnggggg journey but finally starting to take off.

Investing.com - Piper Sandler raised its price target on Tamboran Resources Corporation (NYSE:TBN) to $74 from $41 while maintaining an Overweight rating on the stock. The shares currently trade at $49.89, up 40% over the past week and trading near their 52-week high.

The firm cited two recent transactions in the Beetaloo Basin that value the basin at $2,900 to $5,500 per acre, compared to $400 per acre implied in the current enterprise value. The transactions include a farm-out deal of 10,000 net acres to Daly Waters announced Tuesday.

Last week, INPEX announced it is farming into DWE’s position in the Beetaloo Basin, with an option to further expand its position.

Tamboran Resources is expected to close its acquisition of Falcon in the next couple of weeks. The company anticipates having a farm-out agreement of its own by mid-fiscal year 2026.

Piper Sandler analyst Mark Lear stated: "DWE and INPEX Deals Drive Confidence in Beetaloo; We reiterate our OW rating and raise our PT to $74 (from $41) following two recent transactions in the Beetaloo Basin that values the basin at $2.9-5.5k/acre (vs. $400/acre implied in the current EV), including this morning’s farm-out transaction of 10k net acres to Daly Waters."Despite the bullish analyst outlook, InvestingPro data suggests the stock may be overvalued at current levels. Investors can access 15 additional ProTips and comprehensive analysis through TBN’s Pro Research Report, available exclusively on InvestingPro.

In other recent news, Tamboran Resources Corp announced several significant developments. The company held its Q2 2025 earnings call, highlighting a cash balance of $91 million at the end of the period, suggesting strategic investments are underway to bolster growth. In addition, Tamboran Resources shareholders have approved proposals related to the acquisition of Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. This approval includes issuing 6,537,503 shares of Tamboran common stock to Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. and an additional issuance of up to 147,508 shares for minority holders of Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Limited.

Furthermore, Tamboran Resources has entered into two addendums concerning its Beetaloo Basin gas project in Australia. These agreements, signed with Daly Waters Energy, LP, and other joint venture parties, pertain to the ownership, management, and financing of the joint venture. These recent developments underscore Tamboran Resources’ strategic focus on expanding its gas market presence and enhancing its operational framework.

https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/piper-sandler-raises-tamboran-resources-stock-price-target-on-deals-93CH-4590869

Https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/tamboran-resources-price-target-raised-to-74-from-41-at-piper-sandler-thefly-news?mod=mw_quote_news

Nm

Interesting article - however the author seems to have missed the acquisition of Falcon by Tamboran..

3 - At scale, the Beetaloo region is widely considered capable of supplying the east coast gas market for decades, with some industry estimates suggesting multi-decade coverage of forecast shortfalls if development reaches its full potential – and Beetaloo is aiming to be a meaningful long-term contributor to Australia’s energy security.

From a broader perspective, the Beetaloo Basin is increasingly being compared to leading North American shale provinces, with thick, organic-rich Velkerri shale capable of supporting long-life, high-volume production. Continued strong flow test results across multiple operators are steadily validating that thesis, now drawing in new capital and expertise.

Corporate activity is now catching up with the geology.

INPEX’s entry into the basin comes from a tie-up with Daly Waters on leases acquired from Tamboran in a 2025 chequerboard-style restructuring. Daly Waters is the Australian arm of Texas-based Formentera Partners. The move weaves INPEX into a layered ownership mix, where Formentera’s billionaire owner, Bryan Sheffield, brings deep technical pedigree and capital firepower, adding another influential voice to a table stacked with shale heavyweights.

Elsewhere, Tamboran continues to build momentum in the basin. However, its partnership with Falcon Oil and Gas has highlighted both the scale of the prize and the structural juggling required to keep multiple players aligned as development gathers pace.

Santos has also continued to reinforce its presence, highlighting the basin’s ongoing strategic pull and its growing importance to Australia’s tightening east coast gas market.

In contrast, Beetaloo Energy’s clean ownership structure provides optionality its peers may lack. As majors circle, the company is uniquely placed to advance independently towards production or attract a strategic partner at a time when asset scarcity is becoming more apparent.

With technical results continuing to impress, regulatory approvals largely in place and a defined development pathway with infrastructure build underway, the company is not just holding prime ground – it is poised to bridge the gap between exploration success and commercial production.

Extended production testing in 2026 looms as a pivotal catalyst, with the potential to unlock Beetaloo’s assets and further validate the basin as a key hub for Australia’s future gas supply.

As the basin edges closer to commercial reality, the combination of scale, control and momentum could prove difficult for larger players to ignore.

The majors are circling, the ground is heating up and the wells are proving the play. With full control of its prime patch and a clear run to first gas, momentum is building on all fronts. Beetaloo looks to be sitting pretty, right where the action is about to happen.

end

https://www.businessnews.com.au/article/Beetaloo-in-sweet-spot-as-majors-swoop-on-NT-shale-gas-play

2 -

The company’s Carpentaria-5H horizontal well has delivered standout basin-topping results, with a peak gas flow of 11.2 terajoules per day and a 30-day average of 7.1 terajoules per day – among the strongest in the basin to date.

The well continues to show low decline rates as it cleans up, with improving gas-to-water ratios pointing to increasing efficiency over time. Coupled with cleared regulatory hurdles, these outstanding results have set the stage for extended production testing in 2026.

Carpentaria-5H itself is a technical tour de force, featuring a jaw-dropping three-kilometre horizontal section and stimulated across 67 stages – the most extensive stimulation program completed in Australia.

That scale of stimulation, combined with strong early flow rates, is widely seen as a bullish indicator for ultimate recoverable volumes and repeatable, scalable production across the field.

Early resource indications are compelling. Independent estimates point to roughly 10 petajoules of recoverable gas per well location in the Carpentaria area. It has reinforced the technical potential for multi-well development across the broader acreage and highlighted the size of the prize, now attracting major corporate attention.

Meanwhile, broader industry dynamics have shifted decisively in Beetaloo’s favour. Earlier backing from Macquarie with $65 million in finance for R&D and construction, alongside a $28M capital raise, has strengthened its balance sheet, while support from traditional owners for gas sales has helped de-risk the pathway to commercialisation.

Beetaloo Energy managing director Alex Underwood said: “Our strong horizontal well results and 100 per cent ownership position place us in a unique position as activity accelerates across the basin. We are focused on delivering first gas while retaining flexibility to capture the full value of our acreage as industry interest continues to build.”

Crucially, the company has already shifted gears from exploration to full-throttle development mode. Its Carpentaria Pilot project has now got the green light via a final investment decision, locking in a direct route to initial production and cash flow.

The project includes the installation of the gas plant, designed with a capacity of 25 terajoules per day to provide in-field infrastructure for up to 10 additional wells. Civil works are underway and commissioning is targeted for later in the year, with first gas sales expected into the Northern Territory market under an existing supply agreement with the NT Government.

The domestic focus is strikingly strategic. The project will initially supply gas into the local NT grid using existing pipeline infrastructure, with longer-term upside tied to east coast demand as supply tightens.

continued.......

Start - Beetaloo Energy is emerging as a standout in the Northern Territory Beetaloo Basin after global major INPEX farmed into nearby acreage and competitors refined their positions. With 100 per cent ownership, strong flow results and key approvals secured, the company offers a rare unencumbered entry point as corporate interest builds ahead of potential first gas in 2026.

A surge of corporate activity is sweeping across the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin, shining a spotlight on Beetaloo Energy’s 100 per cent-owned position, presiding over more than 28 million acres.

Last week, Japanese giant INPEX confirmed a farm-in of nearby acreage just as Beetaloo is charging towards first gas from one of Australia’s hottest and most prospective unconventional shale plays.

INPEX’s farm-in to Daly Waters Energy’s leases has sharpened attention on the basin, signalling growing international appetite to secure exposure to one of Australia’s most promising onshore shale provinces.

The oil major is joining a parade of players, including Tamboran Resources and Santos, reshuffling and repositioning around what is emerging as a much-needed new domestic gas province. The move underscores the strategic allure of securing a foothold in the basin, where Beetaloo’s clean, unencumbered position shines as a rare and highly attractive entry point.

INPEX’s deal gives it significant exposure to highly prospective acreage in the Beetaloo sub-basin, aligning the company with a broader push by large-cap energy players to secure future domestic gas supply. The transaction reflects a broader trend of corporates sprinting early to claim stakes ahead of commercial development.

While others navigate complex joint venture structures and partner wrangles, including Tamboran’s partnership dynamics with Falcon Oil & Gas, Beetaloo’s 100 per cent ownership is emerging as a defining advantage. With no joint venture chains to hold it back, the company retains complete flexibility and full control over development timelines, funding strategies, commercialisation pathways and the option to entertain potential farm-in discussions.

Operationally, Beetaloo has been blazing the trail, consistently setting the benchmark.

A string of milestones, including successful well stimulation, basin-leading flow rates and final Northern Territory approvals to transition from flare to full gas flow have collectively positioned the project at the forefront of the basin’s march towards production.

continued.......

I only mention this because the $ per acre is less than the deal with DW in an area that we know 100% will produce.

I am wondering just based on timing if this farm in is really to shore up $$ to pay out Lamesa.

Happy to see DW and TBN working together. That was a big concern of mine with the Inpex announcement. Now I wouldn't be surprised if Inpex is the suitor for TBN's farm out.

Apologies -- as brain and fingers don't want to cooperate at times -- LOL

which looks "GOOD" from any prospective Farm Down partner

🚀 It's rare a stock that's pumping continues on the back of news like today ... 🔥

Schlemiel -- here is Smallfish's take on the TEE permits sitting just above the Beetaloo Basin. It might be interesting to hear what TEE announces on Monday, (after TEE voluntarily suspended trading on Friday) -- ibut it is very doubtful that Tamboran will be stepping in with any offer on that part of the upper Beetaloo.

Smallfish wrote about an hour ago: "TBN gave those acres up years ago, they're worthless for this purpose".

I agree Newt 💯... HotCopper largely insightful and recently a lot more use of Ai in the posts but in most cases that's helpful too ...

I see TEE's been suspended. It holds interests at Beetaloo.

Absolutely right 805 -- as there is a lot on political aggravation posted on the HotCopper Board too! I try to navigate a bit around some of them (like Kangaroo and NoComment), but the pearls of wisdom from the better posters are quite illuminating and worth the effort of navigating through the others!!

Lol, thought the little images were the result of being in the US. Def some informed posters over there. Much of which I struggle to understand;)

The key swing factor

The biggest determinant of Phase 2 valuation is not acreage per se. It is speed to cashflow.

If Phase 1 demonstrates:strong IP rates, improving cost per well, clear pathway to Darwin LNGthen Phase 2 valuation moves rapidly toward the upper end of the range, or beyond.

Bottom line

The INPEX deal implies:floor valuation: ~US$3k–5.5k/acre (early-stage, option value)

Phase 2 likely range: ~US$6k–15k+/acre equivalent

The true value driver is capital committed per working interest, not acreage price.

The most important shift is this: the basin is now being priced as a development system, not an exploration play.And once that shift happens, valuation tends to move quickly, particularly if multiple strategic players are competing for exposure.

BTW I don’t buy the conspiracy theory. TBN is key to unlocking access to capital. No one goes through the pain of achieving a NYSE listing to turn around and take it private within a year. JR was replaced as he was not the right CEO for the next phase.

All very positive.

end

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/general-chatter.6222279/page-2536?get_post=true&direction=previous

a reasonable framework is:

phase 1 / pilot-linked acreage (current inpex deal):~us$3k–5.5k per acre (risk-adjusted, option-based)

phase 2 development acreage (post pilot validation):typically 1.5x–3x uplift in early shale systems once:ip data is validatedspacing is understoodcost curves begin to normalise

that potentially implies: ~us$6k–15k per acre equivalent for phase 2 positioning.

this is still conservative relative to mature us shale (and our triple play, ****genous largely unfaulted shale), but appropriate given:

-infrastructure still developing

- lng integration not yet fully contracted

- jurisdictional and policy risk still present (clownshow)

what this means in practice for tamboran

phase 2 valuation is unlikely to be expressed purely as a per-acre metric. it will be embedded in the farm-out structure, typically via:carried drilling costs, cash consideration, potential offtake or strategic alignment, retained operatorship.

so the real valuation signal will come through how much capital a partner is willing to fund for a given working interest.

how to think about it

if we translate the acreage logic into development terms:

- phase 2 involves hundreds to potentially thousands of wells over time

- each well may cost ~us$10–15m (early estimate range)

- development capital runs into multi-billion dollars

a partner(s) willing to fund a meaningful share of that capital, accept non-operating status, align with lng pathwaywill be implicitly valuing the basin well above the inpex entry point.

role of inpex in setting the floor, not the ceiling

inpex has effectively set a credible floor valuation, validated the core development corridor, reduced perceived market access risk.

but it has not set the phase 2 price.instead, it has:increased the probability that multiple credible bidders will engage.

this is what drives valuation higher. shrewd. very shrewd.

cont.......

If you step back and read the INPEX move not as a standalone acreage deal but as a signal about how sophisticated capital is underwriting the basin, it gives you a useful anchor for thinking about Phase 2 valuation.

At its simplest level, the INPEX–DWE transaction establishes a clearing price for early-stage, pilot-linked acreage of roughly US$3,000–5,500 per acre.

But Phase 2 is not that. Phase 2 sits one step further along the value chain. It is where:

- well performance is observed rather than inferred

- development moves from pilot to repeatable program

- infrastructure is committed or imminent

- market access becomes visible rather than conceptual

In valuation terms, that transition is not linear. It is more like moving from “option value” to “incipient cashflow system.”

What Phase 2 is actually being valued on

For Phase 2, counterparties are not really buying acres. They are underwriting three things:

1.Manufacturing repeatability

Can this be drilled and completed at scale with predictable costs?

2. Path to revenue

How quickly do molecules move from wellhead to sale?

3. Capital efficiency

What is the recycle ratio once development ramps?

The INPEX deal gives comfort on (2) and indirectly (1). That shifts the centre of gravity of valuation.

Implied uplift from Phase 1 to Phase 2

Using the INPEX pricing as a base, the key question is: how does value step up once the pilot transitions into development?

cont.......

Sedar is updated by FO. Any new PR will be on Sedar, but not before a FO release. Hope no one had a flight booked for April 1. :-)

Thanks 805 -- my son (who if infinitely more tech savvy than I) -- did a quick SEDAR search this morning as well -- and only found the same as you with the latest info being the Press Release from yesterday!! Just guessing -- but there could be a delay until the Supreme Court ruling is finalized and posted by the Court first??

I will be checking the Court rulings page later today -- and will post anything of value from their site if it comes out. If you see an update on SEDAR over the next few days -- posting that update here would be most appreciated. The good thing is the market in the US seems to thrilled as the price now is just under $40 US.

Newt, nothing but press releases from FOG. Same as what is on their website.

https://www.sedarplus.ca/csa-party/viewInstance/resource.html?node=W642&drmKey=5a60728cb2ec563e&drr=ss3b690ce5a9b273a629df11aa0915c382ba3570840b969f0d845ca27b415d4d7310ec6570e658ce44d4e2b1192d67b5b7ux&id=0c11f8b7998bcd96e3fc4392f9e2edaae2ab46d770212a06

Thanks Origin789 -- I saw that Tamboran update from what POQ sent out this morning, but I am trying to access SEDAR to see what the Supreme Court has required TBN and FO to get done for clearing the Russian out and when they have extended to merger finalization to?? You need to be much smarter than I am to figure out SEDAR's site -- LOL.

From the Falcon Press Release: For further information regarding the Transaction, please refer to the notice of meeting, themanagement information circular and related documents which are available on SEDAR+ atwww.sedarplus.ca

Hi Newty, Blue Wiley posted info on FOG chat, link as follows

Https://api.investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/4dcdae3e-297.pdf

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