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My guess / hope is that we get a weeklong rally similar to what happened in early 2017 when Origin released the data about the 6.6 contingent resource.
That ramp up took a wild because it was constant selling adjusting selling adjusting. We all know the day traders are going to be looking for a quick buck so I think what frack me is saying will be accurate..
Dprussky, Love that you found this!
Wetwater- hoping it’s flowing more than 25%but the intensity of the sh1 just looks stronger. The deep yellow in the middle means a lot more than the overall size I suspect. The original A1H well flare looks a tad bigger than the A3h which was just shy of 1mmcf. So while this is not scientific……so I do think there is definitely something to the flare analysis…
The one new thing that also gives me some hope of a better than 3mmcf average is the empire flare sat picture looks at an angles. That would mean more heat could be showing. (Could be me!) but hey just another reason why this isn’t a perfect picture and more for fun.
This is the empire flare from the h3 post soaking in August 2023. That was an average of 3.3mmcf. I scanned through the pics all roughly the same. Our flare is noticeably less intense but again this is double the size.
Still thinking we will be hitting just about the 3-4mmcf on 1000 feet…. Hoping that if we hit at least that the shares will move but I’m skeptical. Empire didn’t move much at all on this announcement.
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.70083&lng=135.10276&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2023-08-06T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-08-06T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/8a5d60ec6c849d031de96eccb854ab76
I assumed it was the h2 because the h3 was shut in on 3/6/2023. This is the news release I was using for my estimate.
I don’t think width is the only thing that matters. If you look at false color urban you can see a white spot in the middle of some of the images. Think that is showing higher intensity which is why I went to a low end of 60% of this.
Guess we’ll see!
https://app.sharelinktechnologies.com/announcement/asx/85e4214e043dcdab2458226e11f44a3b
Sh1 flare to me looks about 60 to 80% as intense as the empire flair at its peak. That would put our flow rates between 3.6 and 4.8. Just a guess of course.
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.70087&lng=135.10231&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2023-03-29T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-03-29T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
The biggest reason the “official” flow test might not have started would be do to shutting in the well to build up pressure. Empire showed a lot of success doing that at there well. They did a 5 month shut in which I’m sure Tamboran won’t do but I think that tamboran will take there good ol time to optimise the well before they start the count on the 30 day test.