The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Agreed, while I loved the question about selling our interest on any prospective well…. If 2 or 3 wells produce amazing and we don’t dilute to participate we’ll still benefit from the over program. Philip basically plans to finance with opportunity cost until shareprice appreciates.
Would be great to understand timing of seismic vs drilling.
I thought the seismic was to be used to better avoid faults in this next well. But interpreting seismic activity takes time. Maybe if they are only doing a limited review for faults it’s a lot quicker but last time they did this with Hess interpreting tbe results took months.
Maybe they can do some of this while the vertical portion is being done but a bit unclear how drilling and seismic Will both be started at the same time. Anyone please feel free to shed some light on how that would work of if I’m missing something.
Everything seems much more fleshed out now which I think is extremely positive. He answered my question on Mako, nothing happening there unless they are approached. He did a good job explaining the about face on monetization. They are not actively going to seek a sale until after the pilot program but he clearly said that since they are public If someone attempt to place a bid that’s a something.
The pilot program funding is a worry but if we hit the 50 usd or even .50 usd in q1 2023 I suspect we’d be looking at 10 to 15 percent dilution per share.
Only think that I’m curious about though doesn’t really matter now is why was all this activity pushed to the end of 2022 vs beginning. I could come up with reasonable reasons…. New shareholder change in course etc but would have liked to understood better on timing.
My veins are filled with koolaide so I’ll poor anyone a glass who needs it.
Gla
Good question which I asked myself recently! Firstly for a US investor, buying Falcon is just much easier as it’s traded OTC and any brokerage firm can fill an order. I had some cash and opened up an account to buy some tamboran at 28c. Order never executed as at the time drilling results were expected and it went up to roughly 40c. I held the cash for a while still considering buying it as it went down to the 20c but based on there flow rate results and legal access issues I put that money back in to falcon. Falcon may be dead money until December but they are in the most proven area with multiple plays still possible As frustrating as it has been owning it for the past 12 years it’s finally in the make or break position.
That’s my reasoning as least(not perfect I’m sure.)
Unfortunately I highly doubt that Origin would renege on there agreement without the full support of the government. Currently only 3.6% interest is retained in the Betaloo by Russian oligarchs and Origin not fulfilling there agreement would move the needle to 16%.
Based on this in the unlucky event origin pulls out I don’t think that would be good for Falcon. (Yes possible there could be court challenges) but if it came to anything like this it would be an uphill battle.
I don’t think an Australian block on Falcon is unlikely given the percentages but definitely something I’d rather not be talking about either way.
Hopefully though the Falcon farmdown valued the project at 1.4 billion. Calculated using 110m addition carry / 7.5 %. That would put Falcon valuation at around .32c usd which it clearly isn’t at or was ever close to that.
Tha k you both, any idea how many more wells we are carried on?
I’m getting lost with the second well carve outs the current vertical etc
I thought there are currently 2 full 3000 meter wells at least left but anything more than that?
Thanks Oleo - Do you think this water saturation issue might have also causes the issues with the original horizontal track. The one with that could not maintain "adequate Clean Hole conditions"?
https://falconoilandgas.com/2020/01/13/kyalla-117-n2-1h-horizontal-well-operational-update/
Hydrogen, I doubt they will try again with this exact same well for exploration. The water fill up is what really makes that unlikely to me. Maybe they could frack betaloo w1 to save some money, but likely they will want to go to the next sweet spot and try again. They shouldn’t try anything in kyalla again until Origin farms out to another major.
My hope is prelim results come back from vel 76 and they move ahead and do a horizontal and frack that before wet season (unlikely but I guess possible…)
Waiting for newt / origins technical take on the news especially on where the water came from.
Thank you both! Have been wanting to refine my onboard calc. One thing missing in both is 22.5x. 98% (Falcons ownership in Falcon Australia .
Td. Oils you could site the 3.75 usd per well?
Hoping If gas prices rise in the short term we’ll get more interest in the sale.
Heard to hoping for more the. .5 lol
I'm glad they gave a short update, but would have been good to get a little more context. Did they conduct studies on the cause of the blockage, or have they done nothing since 7/20? This release seemed a bit rushed and the title should have been operations have resumed not operational update. Is it coincidence that it happened the day after a new chairman was appointed? Maybe we can expect a bunch more smaller updates along the way which would be better I think.
-GLA
Just doing some digging on previous Beetaloo wells. Seems the time between spudding and prelimilary techincal update were about 45 days. However I don't think that any of these previous news releases on vertical wells ever had a real effect on the share price. (Though I do think they give good information).
I think the only thing that might move the needle further this year will be successful remediation on Kyalla. I think it's likely that we won't hear anything for a while on that as I suppose they likely needed different equipment and moving that to the remote location during covid isn't very fast... Love to heard anyone's updated thoughts on Kyalla and likelyhood of good news / timeline.
Well Spudding Prelim Results Days
Amungee NW-1 9/8/2015 10/22/2015 44
Kalala S-1alala S-1 7/15/2015 9/1/2015 48
Beetaloo W-1 7/25/2016 9/14/2016 51
I got something similar from Schwab but wasn’t directed towards Falcon. Falcon at least keeps current with there financial statements and other information so I don’t expect any impact. Some pinks don’t do anything or very little and those are the ones that will get hit. In my opinion anyway unless you’ve heard otherwise.
Waiting doesn’t get any easier! Wondering if anyone has any new thoughts on the timeline for Kyalla? Will we have a second initial flow announcement or if only if it doesn’t flow or after 3 months of it flowing?