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Schlemiel - Thanks for quick reporting! You always seem to pick this up faster than the news outlets.
One thing I'm confused about. In the final report Recommendation 7.12 stated that enclosed tanks were needed for wastewater in exploration. In Origin's EMP they said open tanks would also be used. Curious on your thoughts to how much of a surprise this is / how economically it effects the project. Unfortunately probably economical effect in the short term than long term when better solutions can be implemented.
Recommendation 7.12
That prior to the grant of any further exploration approvals, to reduce the risk of contamination of
surface aquifers from on-site spills of wastewater:
• the EMP for each well pad must include an enforceable wastewater management plan and
spill management plan;
• enclosed tanks must be used to hold all wastewater; and
• the well pad site must be bunded to prevent any runoff of wastewater, and be treated (for
example, with a geomembrane or clay liner) to prevent the infiltration of wastewater spills
into underlying soil
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2019/3013/fs20193013.pdf
Nice little summary of the Beetaloo put out by USGS for a slow news week.
Estimates of 429 MB of continuous oil and 8 TCF of continuous gas.
Not exactly sure what continuous means gas means here, so if anyone has knowledge to elaborate on what this report is really saying and if it's in line with what has previously been estimated would appreciate it!
They indicated they will be wrapping up the current year campaign end of November. Given that timeframe I find it highly unlikely that no drilling will occur this year. Possible only one HFS may happen vs 2 with the other one occurring early April when the wet season ends. But unless we see indications to the contrary my bets on both finishing this year. I think it’s easy to get wary, but drilling can’t start until the EMPs are approved, which can’t happen until Regs are in place. Origin/ Falcon can’t be seen as too “pushy” or they will draw negative attention. With that said if the stock slips further I for one am buying.
Agreed, will be curious what kind of news flow to expect. If you go back to the Brunner days, they released test results of the Mako within something like 10 days, but probably due to the poor results... Would much rather have better news that takes longer Though I am curious if someone knows if flow rates before a press release is considered insider information or could the people drilling be purchasing stock once something comes through? Either way I expect to hold this stock until the end but I always get surprised seeing sell offs before a press release.
Also, Does anyone have Santos drilling plan? Do we expect them to drill and produce results first? (Assuming approval of the EMPs soon).
On timing POQ mentioned it takes 30 to 90 days for each well and the campaign will go until end of November. Previously posted but gives an idea on time. https://youtu.be/dJiTFbFqsFU Not Sure if they can move the rig once one well site is drilled to start at the other site to work on both at the same time. With that said they should definitely get results from at least one of the wells this year if operations start by August. Though my bet is we see regulator approval on June 19th and PR for drilling on July 4th. On the Cenkos report. I agree there were a few errors, I still don’t fully understand the acreage valuations I mentioned in my previous post, especially with the small sweet spot for the Kyalla formation that is in the territory. But I guess that is the game with valuation as you really don’t know until you prove the acreage or get bought up. You can easily access the report with a free trial of research tree, though if you don’t want to get charged just need to cancel in a few days. On the Kyalla I do hope it shows signs of life as that will be how I could see the valuation go over 3usd but I am a little skeptical based on what others have reported regarding that formation and clay content. Though I’m no expect so would love to be proven wrong. https://youtu.be/dJiTFbFqsFU
5 retweets 3 likes amazing exposure LTG has. Must be the same 5 people that posted the 6,000 “comments”. Also, I figured out the answer to my question re public comments in bulletin #20 liked below: “should an EMP be approved” “There are also important changes to laws to increase the transparency around decision making, in addition to EMPs published for public comment, including that public comments will be taken into consideration by the Minister in her decision making. Public comments, and a statement of reasons will now be published on the Department of Environment and Natural Resources website, should an EMP be approved.” https://cmsexternal.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/699572/community-bulletin-20.pdf
Agreed on those points! I posted an article earlier this week on that but didn’t provide any content. I was more looking for compliance with the inquiry recommendations to avoid it issues. Maybe the comments don’t need to be publicly posted before approval but don’t like leaving things to chance.
Thanks schlemiel. Anyone know if the comments on the EMP have been published? Doesn’t seem to be on the website and based on this letter it’s required... not that I really want to read any of them but don’t want any drama for approval.
Thanks Dprussky for a walk down memory lane.
Few observations since this article.
No one seems to be talking about the Moroak Sandstones. Wonder if it's still in play?
Lower Kyalla showed some early signs.
Goodbye EP 99
89% Interest in Beetaloo went to 98%.
I believe HESS still has options on the table until 2020 @.19 Can't help but wonder if Chenkos considered approaching them to extinguish the options for capital to make less dilute. Though I bet Hess still is kicking themselves for not extending.
I suspect approval of any HFS exploration drilling EMPs may be delayed until the final exploration regulations are in place which Paul Kirby indicated would be " within weeks". There seem to be a lot of unknowns which is causing caution. Without any news-flow the stock seems to correlate more with oil prices than it should which have been recently depressed along with the rest of the market. (Which doesn't make sense if you really know the stock, but I digress).
I don't recall seeing any posts regarding the Cenkos report, but it estimated a risk valuation of 41p. made up of
Play Net Acres to Falcon Value / Acreage USD Per share Value In GBp
Middle Vek B Contingent Resource 143,119.00 2029.8 22.80
Middle Vek B Prospective Resource 1,030,996.00 108.4 8.80
Kyalla / Hybrid Prospective Resource 1,352,400.00 42.3 4.50
Verkerri Shale Liquid Rich Gas 1,352,400.00 42.3 4.50
Karoo Basin 7,500,000.00 1.3 0.80
My favorite it the value of the Karoo ;-)
Acreage estimates on the liquid plays to me seems high based on the area's that Falcon shows on there charts, not sure if anyone else has looked at the report for that. but hopefully we get closes to a true value soon.
"While the government acknowledged the incredible number of submissions, a spokesman said the vast bulk were in the form of campaign petitions.
These petitions were formulated by anti-fracking groups and sent online to government with the attachment of an address and click of a button.
A government spokesman said there were 26 individual submissions among the thousands of pro-formas."
https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6196576/a-submission-or-a-petition-thousands-react-to-first-fracking-application/?src=rss
Based on this the comments on Origin's EMP do not appear to have any substance, hopefully it won't create delay's in an approval... Although the timeline seems to be a bit of a mystery at this point any anyone's guess. I don't expect any real action on the shares until an approval is granted.
W.e.t.W.a.t.e.r. I was looking over the EMPs today and I think within the below approved EMP it has water monitoring for Velkerri 98 E1. not sure if this answers your question.
https://denr.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/611842/EMP-origin-water-monitoring-bore-drilling.pdf
Weird to announce this now at current levels. It almost seems like a marketing ploy to drum up institutional interest ahead of the drilling. This roughly dilute the current shares by what 5%? I guess it’s best to lock it in now if drilling is delayed but curious why it wasn’t done later...
TBH, as much as I’d like to get some cash on my worthless Petrohunter shares might be more beneficial if the selling resumed allowing to pick up cheaper Falcon. Shares of Falcon would need to hit 3 dollars before having a Petro is in the black which won’t happen for a while (Based on my high level calc..) At the end of the day those shares are going to hit the market unless a private buyout is arranged so I’d rather see that happen before a rally on drilling results. - jmo
Very interesting. There were some updates to the bankruptcy case with petrohunter/Sweetpea recently. They might be fighting liquidation although the holdings are roughly 20m shares less than last reporting. Good to whatever happened hasn’t negitively effected the shares. https://www.inforuptcy.com/filings/cobke_452866-1-16-bk-20197-petrohunter-energy-corporation