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Hi Lock, I think the DFIT on the Shenandoah well was helpful / I didn’t have it on the radar that they were going to do that. I do think it’s a non event for at least long term holders. Given this is the third or 4rth DFIT on the area which is consistent with previous ones. Again a good confirmation in consistency but ultimately the only thing that will move the needle now will be actually achieve the long promised flow rates.
It might shed some light on why they moved to this hole now…
I’m sure some of the more o&g technical people can chime in if this tells us anything new but don’t think it changes anything.
While bad results will surely suck…. Maybe the deal POQ made will save dilution. If this well sucks for whatever reason we don’t have to participate in the next one. Once someone cracks the formulas we’d be able to join in the one after that.
Guess what I’m really saying is maybe phoenix is. More apt name for this bird.
Flare is back. Maybe just me but looks bigger and meaner
https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=17&lat=-16.34833&lng=133.88471&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fservices.sentinel-hub.com%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fbd86bcc0-f318-402b-a145-015f85b9427e&datasetId=S2L2A&fromTime=2023-05-18T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-05-18T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=6-SWIR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22
So just sifting through everything.
4/8 tinny flare:
Mid April - we’ll shut in and production tubbing installed
4/28& 5/3 - much bigger flare
5/8 & 5/13 - no flare. Have to assume on purpose otherwise some type of information would be released.
I remember someone said that a nitrogen lift was used on amungee 1 but I can’t find record of that. It seemed when kaylla was being lifted It took a few weeks. Not sure if that’s normal or not but is 2 weeks for a nitrogen lift reasonable? This could be perfectly normal and potentially just a way to get better than expected flow rates.
Other possibilities they did not get the flow they wanted and are looking into the stages that are causing the issue.
The flare does look like the best flare I’ve seen in these sat images in beetaloo but obviously can’t gage flow realistically from the images.
Welcome any other speculation to what might be going on.
Out of curiosity I went back to the sentinel photos around august 7 - 9/20/2021. The flare for that test was barely visible to me. Moisture index was the easiest way to see any type of activity. Also just relooking at the 4/28/2023 photo there is the same type activity. (Bottom left vs bottom right.) My guess is there is definitely sizable gas coming up but whether it’s 1 or 7 mcf is a guess at this point .
Based on the tone seems they don’t want any data to be released until everything is optimized. The messaging is definitely different than the past so seems like they are directly talking to this board to downplay the long weeks between updated…
Ha as much as I want you to be wrong previous otd post had this at .50 to 1.00 usd…. So your are squarely in the middle of previous me! Will still run some more numbers for fun. Need a new episode to keep the soap entertaining!
Thanks newt. I’ll run my numbers some more. Any idea what casing cost? Tbn said 14m excluding casing on this well. So want to better estimate drilling cost.
74 usd just feels low to sell out at. Tamboran put out an estimate of 4 dollars per mmsfc and current gas prices at 8. Gas demand isn’t going down in the next 10 - 15 years (unless fusions become commercially viable lol. ) guess the question is if the share price can get up higher than 50 c for dilution or would poq consider the d word :0. I eagerly await the day for a resolution to falcon but not sure what I’d rather do. Good thing it will be completely up to me when the time comes. (:
Love the optimism! 10 dollars def possible if stay in for full scale production. My hope is $1 by year end (assuming we get one more well this year!) than falcon will likely start selling shares to fund exploration. Call it 2m a well and 800 wells to be drilled. hopefully we don’t need to dilute more then 100 wells before operations can fund further wells. so we’ll say 200m share dilution (20%), 300 wells producing 15mmf/d 20 years of production 50 percent discount rate $1k profit per mmscf/d would be about 3.2b or 2.8 dollars a share for present value once commercialization is confirmed.
If we get to all 800 wells producing (and Kyalla figured out) 10 dollars a share is possible.
Post is a little messy happy to clean it up later if anyone is interested.