The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Agree with WET on this. In general share price might have an effect however if we do get a low call the shareholder concentration will surely cause any offer to be voted down so couldn’t go through. I don’t think we’ll be seeing any Hostile take overs which then leave exactly what WET is talking about with reserve value. This will hold true as long as the price stays low. If we see a substantial rise in price a premium based offer may become more of a possibility but still doubtful that they would get the votes if below compatible transactions with similar reserves (once proven of course).
It will be interesting to learn if the 10m HESS Warrants get executed. They are technically now in the money but with such low trading volume it’s really more like an additional funding round for 1.9 cad.
I assume we won’t know until the next financial reporting date.. wonder if this small volume pump had anything to do with them.
GLA
So HESS sold them awhile back. They are also expiring in 3 weeks. I guess it’s a double edge sword... it would offset other capital raises but If they expire then less share dilution which I’m a fan of at this point.
Gotta love the way the markets work :) I think you maybe right in the short term but empire is more of a wild card where there land is compared to falcon. I’m no expert In oil staking but based on what been said it seems Falcon is in the sweet spot and the further you go out the more wild it gets. Maybe take those gains and put em in falcon ;) GLA
Did you see the civil work EMP for the Velkerri? They plan to frack early February and drill into December. I think it’s still likely we get a full test on the Kallya this year as they are pushing the boundaries of the wet season. Of course that the Fracking EMP still needs to be approved so we’ll see what happens.
https://denr.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/735317/ep76-s2-origin-velkerri-civils-approved-emp.pdf
I didn't see this posted yet but thought it was relevant. Civil EMP was just posted for the Velkerri 76. Didn't read much except the timeline. Looks like they plan to HFS in February - April. So they are definitely pushing the early and late parts of the wet season.
https://denr.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/735317/ep76-s2-origin-velkerri-civils-approved-emp.pdf
Civil Construction Works (This EMP) August 2019
Drilling of Velkerri 76 S2- 1 exploration well (not covered under this EMP) October 2019
Stimulation of the Velkerri 76 S2- 1 exploration well (not covered
under this EMP) February/March 2020
Well Testing of the Velkerri 76 S2- 1 exploration well (not covered
under this EMP) - March 2020 to November 2020
October 2019
Stimulation of the Velkerri 76 S2- 1 exploration well (not covered
under this EMP)
February/March 2020
Well Testing of the Velkerri 76 S2- 1 exploration well (not covered
under this EMP)
March 2020 to November 2020
Very interesting interview. Based on what was said biggest take away is that if this is a dry gas only play the timing for the gas to come to market will be further into the future. They are really hoping to see some wet gas.
Might explain the current share price a bit more if that holds true then the liquid tests are even more important . JM thoughts.
Question to anyone who might know. Given we are probably starting drilling mid September estimate 1 to 2 months to drill and case... is it still up in the air if we get any type of HFS completed this year?
I assume that would push us into late November into the beginning wet season. If they get good flow would they need to do 6o days? I assume the longer the test the better but hoping someone could shed some light if it’s likely that we are waiting until April to get any results. (This seems it could be a reason for the stock staying low as drilling and fracking are not the same thing and the announcements have only indicated drilling will occur.
Thanks Orson, does it also define a start to the wet season as well? Being able to start earlier is good, but I wouldn't expect full steam ahead with all of the next 3 wells, as until all the stage 2 wells are complete, they will need time to analysis and decide where they want to target after getting data from the two liquid rich plays.
Jhealy, I've read and reread your post over the years and have found them concise, insightful with a certain wisdom and good balance. I think the suspense is building causing some of the less productive chatter but hope you do not stay a stranger.
GL
Curious if anyone has heard if Origin or Santos has done anything ATM with regards to getting the area set-up under the Civil EMPs. I do hope they will begin that now to give some confidence along with some kind of press release.
Thanks Origin789, I feel like the markets waiting for something definitive. We need the EMP approved and we need a revised drilling schedule to drum up any volume. The placement seems to have really taking the life out of the stock the last few weeks. I’m still hoping for the EMP on Monday.
Just checking the BB terminal and can't see any indication of POQ selling shares. His reported shares have stayed the same around 3 million since Q4 2016. Granted it doesn't look like he's increased his stake, but would be curious if you have actual filings that show he has indeed been selling.
This article is more of the same but has some additional detail
https://www.katherinetimes.com.au/story/6215253/all-clear-for-fracking-after-last-regulatory-hurdles-cleared
Also, looking at the code of practice... I think the headlines were a bit mis-leading. This indicates that wastewater held outside of enclosed tanks for evaporation must demonstrate that it's not harmful. So I'm not really sure what they were getting at.... maybe just for transportation purposes?
Either way, I hope to see some kind of press release from Falcon/Origin in the near future.
"The WWMP must include a specific detailed risk assessment for any proposed on site wastewatertreatment or disposal which addresses at a minimum the following: (a) For any proposed produced water and flowback fluid treatment processes occurring outside of enclosed tanks (including volume reduction via evaporation) the WWMP must demonstrate that all associated environmental risks and environmental impacts have been reduced to a level that is ALARP and acceptable and must"
https://denr.nt.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/705890/code-of-practice-onshore-petroleum-activity-nt.pdf
Thanks Origin/Schlemiel - The additional trucking adds to the environmental impact as well ;-). I was reading about various solutions for waste water including pipelines. Since so much infrastructure is needed already maybe building these type of solutions can be implemented upfront with the new gas pipelines to create a better economic and environmentally friendly solution... Also was reading some articles about waterless fracking with CO2 especially in clay rich shale so there are many options and if the gas in in the ground they will find a safe and efficient way to get it!