RE: SS-6H Delivers Record IP20 Flow Result2 Apr 2026 18:55
Fitz's post from hot copper is optimistic about results and ending the flow test early, he states:
The SS-6H result marks a pivotal inflection point for TBN and, more broadly, for the investment case around the Beetaloo Basin.
What we are seeing here is not simply another data point in an exploration program, but the transition from geological validation to repeatable manufacturing signal.
At a headline level, the well delivered an average IP20 flow rate of 10.3 MMcf/d, or 11.9 MMcf/d when normalised to a 10,000 ft lateral. This places the result firmly within the range of established US dry gas basins such as the Marcellus, which is the relevant benchmark for institutional capital. The significance of that comparison cannot be overstated. Markets do not require Beetaloo to be “better than the Marcellus” — they require evidence that it behaves like a scalable US shale system. This result moves the basin decisively into that category.
More importantly than the headline rate is the quality of the flow profile. The well demonstrated stable production over the final five days of testing, with behaviour consistent with SS-2H ST1, suggesting lower early decline characteristics than might typically be expected. In shale economics, this is where value quietly compounds. A slightly lower decline curve can materially improve EURs and capital efficiency, even if initial rates are similar. In other words, this result is not just strong, it is well-behaved — and that is what capital wants to see.
There are also important subtleties embedded in the result that strengthen the investment case. The well was not fully optimised, with an obstruction limiting contribution from approximately eight stages. That implies upside to current performance rather than downside risk. In addition, the well was still unloading water at the end of testing, indicating it had not yet reached steady-state production. Both factors suggest that reported rates may understate ultimate performance, which is precisely the asymmetry investors look for at this stage of basin development.
From a development perspective, the timing is critical. Testing has been intentionally curtailed to preserve reservoir energy ahead of tie-in to the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility and the commencement of gas sales in Q3 2026. This reinforces a key shift in narrative: we are no longer optimising for test data, we are optimising for cashflow.
Also I strongly suspect that this could be tactical to put pressure on farm-out bidders while the Middle East is still in turmoil. Why wait another 2 weeks? Make your mind up time. Smart.
The next three wells (SS-3H, 4H and 5H) are expected online in the same timeframe, targeting approximately 40 MMcf/d under the existing gas sales agreement - it will be much more than 40. This is the bridge from pilot to revenue.
So for the investment case, the implications are clear... ctd..
Fitz's post on hotcopper has additional information and is wel
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