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WTF, Still waiting for the TR1.
Not sure what's going on with this share. Am I missing something? The update was sound, the balance sheet looks fairly healthy and the prospects are very encouraging. Then we have mayhem last week which we have yet to establish why.
Yes the sector is out of favour and someone has sold out big time. Small private investors continue to sell. All the while the likes of JPM, Chelverton, and Slater are in there albeit in a small way, I remain a holder reluctantly.
Yes, it's a regulatory requirement, given that one of last weeks trades was 7.5m shares / 3.6% they are going to have to issue something. The only excuse could be that the seller hasn't finished yet which may explain why there were dumps late this afternoon...
Are TR1's mandatory. Since the IPO there has been significant selling and none issued.
At least they are not going through at 50p, which has to be a positive.
It would appear that it hasn’t.
This week could see a very nice rebound.
Seems that the selling has finished judging by Fridays trades. No TR1s but that doesnt seem that unusual here. My charts shows £1 rebound could be seen very quickly. I would say that from there it depends on financials but t large pots held in too few hands means if one of them sells its very painful. On the flip-side it has a small free float which could trigger a scramble for shares. Hopefully the latest tranches are in sticky hands. This has a small following so needs fund buying. Depending on your strategy the graph is either very off-putting or very attractive.
The cash position is solid, its generating free cash even with the acquisitions so safe as it can be for March results.
I actually bought in today for the first time and also took advantage of the drop at Frontier. Great Trading share Frontier, it jumps to about 515p runs out of steam and drops to 470p. Let’s see what next week brings and hopefully a bit more positive sentiment.
A good day in the end, no more large sells and the buys coming in this afternoon.
ShearClass, of the first group of trades this morning, every trade was priced lower than the previous one. Clearly then were sells. Despite the spread it looks like the majority of trades have been marked correctly as either red sell or blue buy.
Ted, there is no way to know whether this will go down or up, it depends if the selling is done - which it seems to be - and how the market will react to the current price. Seems cheap to me. Other big drops here have resulted in 50% gains in the following weeks, I dont think that scenario can be written off just yet and I know you are waiting to buy so you may just miss out with the speed at which this can move.
57.98p is the buy price at the moment, I can’t see the point in buying now when it looks likely that the price will drop.
It does crack me up reading these comments at time. I posted at 9.33 to say that market makers were deliberately setting the spread so as to make buys show as sells. Nevertheless, you still get comments like "Todays steady trickle of sells seems to be reaction to the uncertainty"
The spread at open was 59-62 but you could buy at 60p, as this is below the mid price all trades will show as sells. All of the trades in the first hour were in fact buys - I had multiple quotes in this time period to confirm this fact. After that they adjusted the spread to 57-60 and it's 59p to buy again...
As for something serious going on, ask yourself this; if there was a problem then why would anyone be buying >15m shares at 50-60p? It simply wouldn't happen. It's a buyers market and in my opinion they have named their price and the market has been walked down to that level until they complete the transactions. TR1's will of course be key.
Many small private investors by the looks of it are deserting the ship. When I bought in at around £1.50 I thought I had found a little gem that had gone unnoticed. I couldn't see too much wrong with the balance sheet although there's always the risk of a cash call at some point with a quickly enlarging company. However to see the ridiculous event this week is making me wish I'd put a 10% stop loss on my investment. I'm tiring of these situations where everyone is in the dark for a few days while we find out what has happened. Whoever sold out like that must have either been desperate or knows something we don't. I hope it's the former. Also if I find out it's one of the two founding owners (which is highly unlikely imo) I will be out in an instant.
Netease came in pre IPO for less than the sells that recently went through as far as I can work out.
There’s also all the acquisitions be s that involved share payments (a very shrewd move for us now considering what has happened to the share price) where the lockup may have expired??
The only other person it could be us the founders, and they wouldn’t be able to sell with insider knowledge of any unknown (to the market) issues.
Must be Netease IMO and once confirmed I think the SP will react/recover positively. There’s no way they could have offloaded that number of shares at the prevailing market price. Looks like they wanted the money quickly. My only concern is that there have been no TR1s since drop from £3. Seems an unlikely scenario.
I doubt it’s Franklin templeton - https://www.franklintempleton.co.uk/campaigns/uk-smaller-companies-transformative-trends-content-and-ip-creation
Swedbank seem to have reduced their holding earlier in the year, left with 5m shares.
https://internetbank.swedbank.se/ConditionsEarchive/download?bankid=1111&id=WEBDOC-PRODE99203131
If 'something major' is going on, then it should have been RNS'd otherwise the seller is blatantly insider dealing. This, coupled with the fact that who ever is hoovering up all these shares wouldn't not be buying such a large position without inside assurances that all is well. This makes me believe there is nothing sinister going on here. All speculation of course. We await the TR1's
Sorry, edit.... see ShearClass post on Thursday. They were in equivalent if <50p
Hi Grantsu, the original shareholders were in before the IPO.... they definitely profit took
Sorry mate....but how is this 'profit taking' by the original investors....it floated at over 2 quid. It's not 50-60p...there is no profit taking here.
I think the business is pretty solid but there is a real risk here of this being something more serious. It's a heck of a distressed sell as it was 70p and almost wiped out from IPO. None of us know what is going on here but to sell at 50p tells me that something more major is going on...
I think we have seen the last of the negotiated trades for now. Todays steady trickle of sells seems to be reaction to the uncertainty. I think the TR1s will clear things up and this can push upwards.
This was £2 a year ago and currently half the price it was in December. Underlying figures have been solid. I think we are just seeing profit taking by the original investors.
The TR-1 deadline for notification is within 2 trading days for a UK issuer, and within 4 trading days for a non-UK issuer.
Since around midday yesterday the market makers have wanted all trades to be classified as sells & that work is continuing this morning. Logic says that this is because they don't want PI's to buy, i.e. it's a holding pattern. I suspect our buyer(s) and seller(s) are negotiating in the background to finalise the transactions that began on Wednesday & escalated yesterday, but lets see what unfolds.
Unberlievable amount of trades and yet share price holds
Milton premier are selling huge amounts in another share I’m in
With all these huge sells being at the same price its clearly not open market sells. I assume we will see TR1s for seller and new investor.
Brilliant work ShearClass. Thank you for taking the time to share your research. I'm looking forward to the TR1's
The IPO was actually at 169p, shares ran up to a high of £3 at one stage in April 21. As per the admission doc there were only 2 funding rounds prior to the IPO with just 4 shareholders pre listing;
"tinyBuild has raised external capital on two occasions: in October 2017 from Makers Fund and in January
2019 from NetEase. tinyBuild successfully used the proceeds from both capital raises to accelerate growth."
Makers Fund paid $29.82 a share (£22.50 at the time) in October 2017 for 125,755 shares, equivalent to 16,325,514 shares post share split @17.3p. They sold 10,301,912 in the IPO so retained just over 6m.
NetEase came in a couple of years later at the equivalent of 43p, using the share capital figures in the admission doc we can work out that there were ~185m shares in issue at that time, so the post money valuation was back in Jan 2019 was ~£80m, which makes the current £120m market cap look too cheap.
The other 2 pre IPO shareholders were the founders who still hold over 100m shares. Whilst it's possible they are selling, I find it difficult to believe they would do so on the open market as opposed to a secondary placing.
Finally, Swedbank hold 16.8m shares with the majority bought in the IPO. Premier Miton took 9.5m in the IPO and Franklin Templeton are down as holding 10.2m shares at May.
Whatever is happening, to have 59m shares traded & finish up by 2% has to be a positive.