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There is definite value here but sub 200d it's a no for me. Not sure what this new foreign agent rule will do to the banks or what analysts expect, so need to monitor that. Interesting one, but where are the buybacks after this drop?
Price to book valuation here is also very high in comparison to UK banks
Close Brothers 0.35
Barclays 0.37
Secure Trust Bank 0.39
Standard Chartered 0.47
Lloyds 0.65
Natwest 0.67
HSBC 0.9
TBC Bank 1.3
Bank of Georgia 1.6
The Georgian currency is a very big risk here and if the GEL was to return to the same average exchange rate against the USD and GBP as in 2021 then these shares would fall by about 30%
In May 2021 the USD bought 3.45 GEL but it only buys about 2.75 now
And in May 2021 the GBP bought about 4.80 GEL but it only buys about 3.50 now
There does not seem to be any good reason for this huge rise in the GEL gainst the USD and GBP in the last 3 years and so it is likely that the GEL will return to a more normal level against these currencies
This would mean a fall of about 30% in the shares
The dividend would also fall by about 30%
Going to put some on this
Director sold today at the peak
They're so close in every measurement , it's difficult to put a cigarette paper between them. We could always hedge our bets and hold both.
tale of two banks in the same place.... similar cap and shares in issue. one puts out results yesterday 1.4b gel profit eps about £10, this puts out 1b profit eps £5.8 other looks better on analysts' forecasts too.
What has happened here? Fortunately sold out before results, not delved deep but thought they read pretty good. Just shows what I know.
Good to see this Share Price continues to do well, more than 50% over the last 6 months or so. Long may it continue:-)
Thanks Jmcj for your response re dividend. Much appreciated...
"On 17 March 2020, the Board resolved not to recommend distributing a dividend, based on 2019 audited financial statements and that the Company would continue to monitor the situation resulted from COVID-19 pandemic."
However, they have committed to a payout ratio of 25-35% over the next 3-5 years. Q2 was strong, and today's report from the Asia Development Bank is fairly upbeat on Georgia so I reckon the next set of results should be positive.
But not show here yet
This share price has been steadily rising recently and about to hit £10 very nice has I've got a few in my ISA... Does anyone know if they still pay dividend? Thanks
Has anyone gone through the half year report this morning? I've had a first look through, and Q2 seems to have been great. Earnings up nearly 5% Vs Q2 2019, which is way ahead of expectations.
I don't see it to be honest. Cases are on the up, but it is now mostly young people being infected as we open up, so we're not seeing the corresponding increase in death rates. The virus is a known quantity now, treatments are improving and herd immunity seems to be more advanced than we thought. No chance that the market will retest 23rd March lows in my view. There may be some turbulence in the short term, but biggest risk in my view is that stocks shoot up, so holding cash is risky imo.
Very sensible mate. The major players have been saying that near another stock market crash , and as you say the Covid influence, play it cool for the time being. All the stocks will be much cheaper , shortly. Gla
A very strange day ...same again tomorrow and I’ll buy more :)
I’m not so concerned about the country risk. Georgia is a pretty stable country, links to the Eu and not governed by some despot dictator. Yes it borders Russia but I’m still confident to invest and trade here and in the BGEO.
Each to their own ..
Could have made an 8% return today, but didn't have any spare funds to take advantage. Huge moves downwards with no news to justify it, so fairly obvious buy. I agree with earlier comments about the country risks, but looks like a great company to me and the price makes up for the risk
Well that was an interesting day. Down almost 9% and ends up more or less flat.
My earlier add is looking healthy already ;)
Lots of similar trades being pumped through today..almost 600 trades which is above normal. Price being pushed down excessively...added a few and will again if they push it down further
I sold out recently at £8.80. Looks like it may have been the right decision but too early to know.
The markets are currently very sensitive to Covid-19 related news. I was uncomfortable with exposure to a region where I have no concept of how the flu will impact the economy and no idea whether government figures can be trusted. Too many unknowns plus some very interesting 'bounce back' opportunities in good solid companies with a UK focus (GFS, SGC, BAKK) are now looking more attractive.
Also playing on my mind was JP Morgan recent exit and I see today Schroder have dropped below 5%. Why? I don't know but there is simply not enough information for me to get a feeling on what's happening on the ground.
You may be right to drip feed cash into this stock over several months. You may benefit from lower entry price which I anticipate to be the case well into next year. For me however, I believe developing economies like Georgia may have dodged the first wave of Covid but I'm not so sure they haven't just delayed the inevitable.
All guess work but that's all any of us can do.
Any thoughts on why this is getting hammered? Just following bank stocks in general, which have had it bad today? Good for me, as I've topped up below my original entry point. TBC have far higher RoA thank UK banks, very good CET1 and central bank rates in Georgia are still over 8% I believe. Going to keep adding here I think
RNS looks like JP Morgan have exited.
Interesting article posted by one of the guys at Motley Fool, which has alerted me to this stock.
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2020/02/22/a-10-dividend-yield-id-buy-for-my-isa-and-hold-until-i-retire/
All sounds good, I would be interested to hear other views and whether you agree on the dividend prospects. Also any relative views vs Bank of Georgia?
And...very positive numbers :)