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Leaving all this out-of-subject BS on the side, the share price makes a good progress. Having analysed the chart on various time frames, we will see a dip at some point within the next month and for that reason I’m preparing just over 50k in extra funds to pump into this share as there aren’t many greater opportunities out there for a good swing trade (not that I’m aware of at least)
Yes, being serious for a minute GMHK... Taking the EBITDA at 6 times and stripping out net debt, the SP is now at a far more sensible level. Roughly loosely 250 would be spot on. Guidance on a path to 200m+ EBITDA has not yet been provided and H1 update and results may become more pivotal. I don't see how this gets to 350 without further positive update from the company.
Whilst the outlook is one to be positive about, the path is still a rocky one. There are plenty out there which have stronger prospects of that sort of uplift in coming few months.
For clarity, I have no SYNT shares right now so my narrative is swayed to a pullback preference.
GMHK - well done holding onto your shares and I agree - there are few large liquid shares with equivalent recovery potential to SYNT. In previous posts I’ve estimated that at £7+ within 3 years - which I think is an attractive return and sensible horizon. Hopefully we get there a lot sooner! One of the interesting things from the last results is that over 50% of revenue and an even greater proportion of EBITDA is currently specialty chem - nice premium quality cash flow while we wait for broader recovery… ATB
jeez, just seen jw’s post about me below. “substantive commercial acumen”. pmsl. there is no end to the contrived and meaningless gob****e this person speaks. atb :)
Can any of you provide ideas of companies that have significant share price recovery potential? I’m aware of ASOS which has been at rock bottom for 9 months but I’m loaded there as well so not too keen to add more.
my largest recovery positions are synthomer, gms and renold. the latter two have really motored over the last 12 months but are well leveraged into recovery. more speculative - speedy hire - rock bottom valuation but quite an opaque near term outlook - could spring up or down short term but hopefully more comfortable mid/long term. highly speculative - carclo and immupharma - proper **** or bust names. buyer beware but potential to multiply many fold if recovery achieved. i also have some asos - hopefully u.k. consumer beyond the worst. happy hunting. imo dyor
Wigwammer GMHK
Boy did you take the bait
What you are doing is called Flaming. And is projection and transference. Which roughly translated is. What you say is what you are.
If you promise to not right any toxic post. I will let you know who I’m watching at the moment.I’m on a bit of a roll at the moment.
I apologise for the spelling mistakes, it that predictive text thing. You haven’t got long.
WigW… I guess you mean Gulf Marine Services (GMS), has had an incredible run.. but never heard of them. Speedy has a good chart ready for recovery but not sure whether I’d invest in it myself. Maybe when it finally rebounds.
My top picks in £1B+ caps from this month are OCDO, AML and FRES. Not as great recovery potential as SYNT and ASOS but charts look fantastic so loaded them with significant amounts.
I also think FRES has great potential. OCDO I have but will sell once they break through 500 . Never been in AML ... I love risk but that's been all over the shop for so long. I stay away from ASOS.
WOSG has also just got very interesting. Have bought a couple of tranches. Started on WINE again the other day also.
I'm as loaded as I'm comfortable with in MCG, JUP and THG. I still kept some FCH as the buyback and US sale could still catapult it some more. Strangely JUP is the one I think might be disappointing ... was expecting more traction by now.
MMAG is the 'outsider' for me.
Considering CURY again now the takeover buzz has cooled. Might see if it goes mid 50s again.
WT ... also bought DARK first thing this morning...that KKR news seems to have given it a clobbering for no huge reason.
Apologies to you WT if you found my post inappropriately spirited. I’ll do my best to resist next time I have a feeling of writing some BS response.
JW, with regards to WINE and MCG, it seems both will have one more leg down. I watch WINE for now but with MCG I’m trying to come up with exit strategy similar to SYNT but I think the floor is yet to be seen once results are out.
Howdey
The hairs are up on the back of my neck with PFC. Are you in or out out!
In. Sold half of mine in the 27 as bought loads in the high 23s. I think it's ages till news comes still ... there was a minor upgrade from SocGen and not sure if that's kicked the algos into override.
GMHK ... that RNS from MCG was a kick in the goolies. Looks like it will be months till a re-rate happens there. Surprised what you say about WINE. After the run from the high 20s to the 60's, I did not think we'd see under 50p again.
JW, when it comes to MCG, I don’t think we’ll see any breakthrough until June so not touching it for another couple of months. We’re likely revisit previous bottom or if they post really bad results, I’m tempted to say 40s. It’s pain in the backside but same like with SYNT just approach strategically and don’t be impatient.
When it comes to WINE, I think mid to low 40s is real possibility. I liked the rise from the bottom but it seems to me the retracement is not finished yet hence my price target. I’ll keep watching both companies and post here if my opinion changes
Lower share swaps but going up nicely... so people are not selling anymore, looks like it can keep going up....
This 95% unrealised loss in mid January turned out to be the best performing share in my portfolio by significant margin.
As someone said here before… hold for gold 🚀
What has happened to this share 135 to todays 260 WOW
Hi joseywales & Walkietalkie
Have either of you looked at MIRI ?
& you saxman303
I've just bought some ....... looks to have a lot of potential, in the very near term. Seems to be right up your street.
Still can't believe SYNT is where it is without news, lets see what the next quarterly update or AGM brings out.
GLA
LOTM
Well I will be buying in the morning
Are we at 350 yet? 🥱🚀
We have broken through 260, if we hold this until close we may go further up because there are almost no sellers and many buyers (we know this because there are no more stocks traded today then other days.). Up we go.
Also i see the 7,3% shorters are almost gonne? Correct me if wrong, only found 1 more of 0,51%.
I can't believe this is up so much again !
They are doing this re-financing a year ahead of schedule !
Why not get the new finance in place & deposit the money until the £350M due next year becomes payable & pay it of then. In the meantime the interest will more than cover the 3 7/8th% on it & help the situation. Instead of re-paying it immediately & paying 7 3/8th for the next 5 years. Not to mention, the broker fees etc for doing the re-payment early that will be costing a good few £££'s.
The synic in me wonders if there getting this all done fast before they have to make any more disclosures on how the business is actually performing.
I guess we'll find out in due course.
Good luck All
LOTM
LOTM
I don't know where the current debt is traded, so I can't check, but I assume, given the interest rate on this debt, it is trading at less than par. I guess therefore this is what makes the sums add up for the buy back.
FS