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That's Known as an FPTF trade if you haven't worked it out I'll spell out the acronym this PM(that's afternoon!!)
I believe they c cc’dan revise the offer. I think this was stated in the Odey email they sent SSX and AAL. The below reads as though they can revise it.
Odey notes that AngloAmerican have not declared their offer for Sirius as a “final” offer.
Odey believes AngloAmerican have chosen not to declare their offer as “final” because there is a risk of both the deal failing at its current level, and of an interloper at a later stage. If such an interloper were to appear, AngloAmerican would, rationally, wish to retain the option to counter bid at a higher level. It is Odey’s opinion that such an interloper would most likely appear between the date that Sirius shareholders vote on the proposed transaction, and the date of the Court Hearing.
The lack of “final” offer, in Odey‘s opinion, suggests that AngloAmerican would be willing to bid substantially more for Sirius, with the investment case remaining highly attractive for AngloAmerican, even at a materially higher bid level.
“ If receivership happens then at least I'll feel happier with myself.”
—
For what? For running families out of incomes and for watching every last penny of your investment turn to fuk all?
Smart move. Still feeling happy?
Pity about a Keith Clarke if he has resigned. Did he walk or was he pushed? He had “previous” with AAL when both involved at Boulby.
What about John Matthew Patrick Hutton? AKA Baron Hutton of Northern Powerhouse. A failed Labour politico, big pal of ‘Phoney Tony’, but given a cushy peerage for his troubles.
Brought onto the board of SXX for his political networking “skills” - well we have all seen how successful he was in bringing in the Government guarantee to support SXX funding.
Probably most famous for his off the record quote to then BBC journalist Nick Robinson that Gordon Brown would be a “F@@king Disaster” as PM.
Well Hutton has proved similar in his role at SXX.
Nuff said.
As at 31 December 2019, Sirius had approximately £59.9 million of unrestricted cash, which was broadly in line with the expected capital spend when the strategic review was announced on 17 September 2019. Unless Sirius can secure additional funding or a merger or acquisition transaction involving Sirius by the end of March 2020 or soon thereafter,
Chris Fraser and Thomas Staley are paid annual base salaries of £486,400 and £337,920, respectively. They are eligible, at the discretion of Sirius’ remuneration committee, to participate in Sirius’ annual bonus plan and share incentive schemes. Their bene?t packages include a relocation bene?t, being the costs associated with relocating back to Australia at the conclusion of each of their employment, and private medical insurance for the bene?t of each of them and their immediate families. Sirius also provides life insurance cover equal to four times base salary.?
He’s on ggp with quite a few of us. Trying to recoup some losses.:-(
If the market continues to fall I reckon it will be immaterial as I think AAL will use market volatility to withdraw the offer.6 months ago they were just over 1650p and insiders have been selling a lot more than buying and they have said they expect tough trading conditions over coming years if world economy tanks.A company that gains a quarter in value in 6 months in good times can loose it a lot quicker in bad
We are nearly there, STAY STRONG, vote NO NO!!
Assuming the court meeting is not adjourned and AAL’s offer of 5.5p is rejected next week, are they allowed under the take over code to make a revised offer? Or do they have to wait 12 months.
Appreciate they have bid under a scheme of arrangement, however I seek clarity on if they can re bid immediately.
Interesting that the Woodsmith site seems to be a wash with activity, new cranes, more contractors, almost a step up from 2 months ago.
I guess so. He’s over on GGP now spouting the same happy clappy stuff.
I really hope he has learnt something from his experience here - but I doubt it. He needs to bank some profits on the pump phase and buy back on the dump phase.
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/jonesrichard/
OR
Does he still post here ? I haven’t seen his closing price daily blog for a while was just wondering if he had sold out :(
trims - excellent post - I agree that this is no longer about investment,
but hanging on to a slim chance of getting some of your money back.
Indeed it appears to have turned into one of the biggest balls up that
I have ever set eyes upon - for god sake !
However if you take into account the push from the very beginning was to
complete construction as fast as possible with the attitude that because
this is a “world class project” the money will of course appear!!! Then
we were always going to end up here...
This is my problem with the whole damn situation, Casapinos... this is nothing to do with investing in potash production any more, nothing to do with crop trials and tunnel boring machines... it has become a straight gamble on the outcome of some nasty corporate takeover among the various factions of money-men (with politicians peering over their shoulders).
And (like a good Yorkshire game of cricket)... as we approach the conclusion, any outcome remains possible.
One thing's for sure though - if it turns out that we were ill-informed (in retrospect) to gauge the wisdom of investing in a ftse250 potash mining company - we are surely even more ill-equipped to second-guess the outcome of those shady corporate battles. The money guys will hold all the cards, and will know a lot more than we do.
So, depressingly, it's not for me at this point - I think I have about 20% of my holding still in here, just in case of a miracle, but not prepared to risk any more. Bearing in mind that this bid was not internally popular inside AAL itself (s.p. fell on its announcement) and given the overall craziness of the world, I would worry that a complete walk-away might be slightly more likely than an upped offer. Who knows though, really... I have no confidence to read the situation at all.
You potentially lose one, just to find more pop up. Have to be consoled that if it didn't mean anything to these people/person they wouldn't still be rocking up.
Check your nominee share holder and ask for their Stewardship Policy.
If like HL they count your vote and submit it via CREST (the UK settlement system) you can vote. Only for and against votes count. Those not placing a vote will not be included in the totals. Vote by phone or Email but last chance on the 26th. Be early.
Prospective profit on 10mtpa. Very decent profit. Unfortunately it's not guaranteed, and it needs a lot of investment to get it out of the (currently damp) Yorkshire soil and out through an expensive tunnel to Teesside.
Sirius and Fraser showed that they weren't up to it. A pity, but so it goes.
AAL have the expertise (not, as far as I know, run by an Aussie banker, but by people with mining nous) so may be able to turn this into a profitable mine. I've lost money on this, but I'm now put a lot (for me) into AAL in the hope that Woodsmith will be profitable in the future.
I may be wrong - I was when I put my money into SXX.
Vote Yes
The too long Goodbye.
Liam, like most I have taken a hit, if the no vote goes through, I can choose to buy back in cheap if I see a compelling case. Good luck to you too. ??
A JV! As first sought by SXX?
1.Avoid PI & II angst., and continuing bad PR for years to come.
2. Take advantage share value for project expedition
3. Get around current city pressure
4. Be seen as ‘considerate’ and mature ,modern business considering broader church.
5 . Not to difficult AA have others!
Already messaged her Scott!
Basher - This is an extract from a recent article (pre the Anglo offer) with quotes from the man who deals with investor relations relations at Sirius. The last sentence has lost me so many hours of sleep I've lost count. Hope this helps.
Farmers require six nutrients in their fertiliser: potassium, nitrogen, phosphorous, calcium, magnesium and sulphur.
Sirius’s Poly4 product contains, as you might expect, four of these. It has been subject to 400 trials on 43 crops in 29 countries and the results have been sufficiently positive to attract orders totaling 11.7 million tons a year from agribusiness giants such as Iffco in the United Arab Emirates, ADM in the US and Wilmar in south-east Asia.
And this is very good news for shareholders, claims investor relations manager Tristan Pottas, who describes himself as a “seventh-generation codhead”, a reference to his Whitby origins.
“We will sell it for $145 a tonne,” he says. “As the operating cost of mining a ton of polyhalite, putting it up the shaft, sending it through the tunnel and loading it on board a ship to go to market is around $30, that’s $115 of margin on every tonne of rock we mine.
“Once you scale that up to our target in the first phase of 10 million tons a year it adds up to over $1billion that can either go back into the business or be distributed as a dividend to shareholders.”
Does anyone have a short summary of the latest financial predictions for production that they could share please?
Ive put a suggestion on sharesoc fred,
I’m hoping in my email to Liam last weekend and my conversation tonight I conveyed that message in my own way but would be good to have that reinforced by someone local who is also more of an experienced investor - after all many of Sirius investors are not the ‘not very well informed shareholders’ Mr Cutifani seems to think we are
Realsicilian-it is clear from the sounding out of Pi's for their voting intentions ,the noises being made by Odey, the position taken by Polygon and of course the groundswell of opinion here that a positive vote for the deal is in serious doubt.Given that AAl will already have plans in place assuming a yes vote , to lose would put a spanner in their works.
The ace up their sleeve is of course that the scheme of arrangement is not predicated on a FINAL offer(so far as I am still aware?) and they therefore can still tweak the deal to buy success.
I have said before that the actual cost of buying 7 billion shares at 5.5p is a fraction of what AAL will have budgeted to bring Woodsmith into production,so to increase the offer would be an irritant but almost trivial in the grand scheme of things.
Lets assume Woodsmith costs a further £2.5 billion to bring to full production, then raising the offer price to 10p (another £400 mill?) is only an additional ~12% of the total cost of the exercise.
I am NOT saying this will happen, merely that in the position AAL find themselves in , it might be the easiest solution.
Alternatively their accountants might tell them that allowing the bid to fail, waiting for insolvency and acquiring it then is more cost-efficient.
It's turned in to a poker game ;Who is bluffing? who has the aces?who will fold?
MY speculation (repeated - speculation) is that AAL might pull a rabbit out of the hat at or before the court meeting, especially if a headcount and the mood of the meeting(and soundings with II's) shows a NO vote is likely, they might seek to buy their way out of the impasse by offering a few more pennies per share.
If,of course, the already submitted NO votes from PI's amount to more than 25% they are stuffed! and the deal falls.Votes now cast cannot readily be amended.IIRC AAL cannot come back with another offer for six months and SXX will probably be declared insolvent immediately or very soon after.