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Getting in at these prices is at bargain baement prices
Nice isn't it
He bought 1,000,000 shares at 37p!!!
Wow wold not like to be in his boots 👢
Plenty of other buys by directors like:
748,000 @ 60p ow that really hurt.
For 2,200,000 shares @6p a piece.he must be wetting himself seeing the share price down to 2p
He owns 5,500,0000 ahres in total pretty large loss to swallow.
No hope, no business, no nothing! Man, once I thought it's gonna be a multi billion dollar business, look at it now. Sad times for all AIM shareholders.
Still no rns on holding of major shareholders. Will ask down the soup kiychemn why not??
Frankie - the initial milestone payment was for $5m , so c£4.4m. Although it was received in late 2022 only £700k was recognised in the 2022 accounts (as per the YE accounts RNS in April 2023). The remaining amount was fully recognised in H1 2023 as shown in the 1/2 year accounts (RNS sept 2023). So there will be nothing in Q3 2023 onwards. Who knows the breakdown between Q1 and Q2 - let's assume a straight line.
Other Viatris milestone payments are only due when sales reach $100m p.a - we are miles off this for at least a couple of years.
Therefore, IMHO both the revenue and the cash levels required as per the convenant will come to ahead early Q2 2024.
And still no inside buying, nor an update on what, if anything, they are going to do about the alleged failure of that third party, concerning the misleading/dishonest information that Shield previously notified the market of.
Information that absolutely influenced the investment decisions of many investors at the time, and leading up to the most recent RNS.
I say alleged, because at this point, we do not have certain proof that it was this third party to blame.
That nobody has been fired yet, not even confirmation of significant boardroom salary cuts, starting with the CEO, gives the impression that some people are perfectly satisfied with how things are proceeding here.
And that is the bit that stinks the most, to my mind.
I am torn between dumping the rump holding and washing my hands of this, quite frankly, questionable outfit, or waiting to see if they get a DNL-style take out, which may soften the degree of loss somewhat.
Not by very much though, if it even happens, IMO.
I think a more likely scenario is another loan on dreadful terms, as we saw before here, to render the business to all intents and purposes a zombie outfit, and virtually ensuring that the shares are worthless to wider shareholders until the end game.
I just hope that if any of the major shareholders are not satisfied with proceedings here, then they use their financial and legal clout to shine a torch here.
Shandypants, in my opinion, the milestone payment from Viatris is not the initial payment upon conclusion of the contract between STX and VTRS. That was 5 million. The 4.4 million appeared for the first time in the preliminary balance sheet from February 21st. Surprising to me.
Based on the information STX shared when the contract was signed, I know that up to 30 million in milestone payments could flow from Viatris. I don't know the exact conditions.
I suspect that the 4.4 million did not flow straight into Q1/23. More likely in Q3/23, as STX had the highest rate of increase. It was 58% even with the real rate of increase. Maybe the money flowed because an increase of over 50% was achieved. But it's all speculation. STX does not provide any details to its shareholders.
I believe and hope that the 4.4 million did not flow into Q1 but Q3, otherwise they will definitely violate both contract conditions for Q1/24 and Q2/24 with SWK.
Q1/24 with the 4.4 million is sporty but feasible. In my opinion, Q2/24 is not feasible even with 4.4 million given today's information. 80,000 Rx have to be achieved, i.e. 12 million with a package price of $150.
The milestone payment can also be a hope for Q1/24, Q2/24 and other quarters. Perhaps the STX VTRS contract is defined in such a way that further milestone payments will flow in 2024.
In addition, there are also cash on hand conditions in the SWK contract. This is by far the bigger problem for me, because according to my information, STX will run out of money in April/May.
A dilution due to an offering is not possible at this share price. The company needs at least 16 additional million to break even.
It's even written in the SWK contract. Shield spends around $50 million a year without offsetting revenues and milestone payments. So more than 4 million per month. Even if I deduct the payments of the 45% revenue to Viatris and the manufacturing and transport costs for the drug, that is far too much for me
Shield's communication to its shareholders is disastrous.
I also suspect and hope to buy Viatris STX. They took the bait, otherwise they wouldn't have signed the contract - and Viatris definitely has its foot in the door. Sometime in 2034 or 35, Ferric maltol will become generic and Viatris will be a company that primarily sells generics. Now that's a bargain for them. If the selling price is at least 10p (my hope) I can at least mitigate my losses and get away with a black eye
Absolutely agree with you, a business with a very strong asset which can achieve hundreds of millions a year in revenue. Indeed serious mistakes have been done by the management, however personally I am optimistic in the long run and I am sure they will make it as the fundamentals are there, especially with the introduction of the drug in the other countries. The main mistake done by the management is that they should talk about revenues and not about prescriptions. The revenues is what it matters and not the prescriptions They had a slow Q4/2023 however the revenues achieved for such a small company started more or less 6 months ago in US market are not bad at all. They will sure need more money until to reach a breakeven point but this is how the stock market works especially for small companies like shield. The fundamentals, the product and potential are all there, need wait and see what they will achieve this year.
Frankie, good analysis, but don't forget the one off milestone payment from Viatris which was recorded in H1 2023. As this was carried over from 2022 it is likely that most/all of it was accounted for in Q1 2023. However, even if we assumed an even spread over the 6 months that's another $2m per quarter that STX need to replace. So that's another 13.3k prescriptions or c4.5k per month. As we are probably c10k prescriptions per month now that's a big ask.
What an utter mess this CEO has let happen. Chairman should be ashamed. 18m market cap for a business with its main asset worth hundreds of millions a year in revenue. Shockingly bad management.
Never mind only the old shareholders who pay - eh? The absolute clincher for me was during he presentation "we only have time for a few questions" this having seen the SP fall by half formats previous fall by half. Utterly contemptuous.
Nice chunky buys comming all he time
There's also a covenant for minimum cash "no less than the greater of i) trailing one quarter of cash burn or ii) US$2.5m". The revenue targets are that outlandish it has appearance of a pre-planned debt-for-equity stitch up.
Yes, and i forgot the EU revs, must be 0.5 $m with no progress in Q1/24 (thx Norgine). Means 40000 US rx = 6 m$ without CAN approval Milestone to fullfill the SWK conditions
It is of course diffcult to realise but from my understanding not so difficult as you reported.
I understand the following if i read it correct
Q1/23 until Q4/23 rev must be 14,5 $m (Realised 17,5)
Q2/23 until Q1/24 rev must be 22,5 $m (17,5 minus Q1/23 + Q1/24) Q1/23 estimate 1,25 m$ US rev +0,25 mS EU rev --> 16+Q1/24 = 22,5 means 43500 rx at 150 $
Q3/23 until Q2/24 rev must be 31,5 $m
Q4/23 until Q3/24 rev must be 38,9 $m
Just checked the RNS when the $20m loan from SWK Financing was announced.
There is a minimum 12 month revenue figure that if breached will force STX to do a placing to cover the shortfall.
The 12 month revenue figures are Q4 2023 $14.5m, and then increasing each 3 months to $22.5m, $31.5m, 38.9m and then in Q4 2024 $45.7m.
STX has just announced $17.5m for 2023, so above the required $14.5m, however, this includes a $4.4m one off milestone payment from Viatris.
If we assume an extra $8m rev is required in Q1 (the difference between the 14.5m and 22.5m) at c$150 per prescription that's c53k for the quarter. In Q4 2023 we are now being told that prescriptions were only 28.6k, so this needs to almost double in Q1.
It is doable - say 12k in Jan, 17k in Feb (40% increase), 24k in March (another 40% increase) - but seems a big ask.
Remember the CEO will have got a bonus for arranging this! His salary in 2022 was a basic of £406k and he received a bonus relating to 2021 (when he only worked 6 months) but paid in 2022 of £223k (including an extra 25% because it was paid late!). In 2022 his bonus was £329k, to be paid in 2023. He has never bought a share in the open market!!
I'll be back
still watching.....
WAC is up 6% in first week of January based on Medicaid Spent data.
https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/ben.link/viz/BrandDrugListPriceChangeBoxScore/BoxScore
Just bought 90,570 shares at 2.42p no problem. Marked as a sell here. Anything 2.42p and above are BUYS. GLA.
Tip my hat off to the mm's they always win, NT to buy we'll sit here and not move and we know after a while people will start selling and we win again. It's just too easy now for them
You will see it dropped to 3p with only about 20,000 shares sold.
The lowest sell price which was bought by someone was 2.70p
on that day buys far outweighed sells
Which means there was no major sell off rather MMS lowered the price for " someone to get in on the cheap"
I am very happy to have obliged them with a 2.80 buy
Happy days ahesd.
So hard to buy now. Yesterday was the same late on. It's 4 v 1 with Peel on 2.5p with 15000, I've sent down a 50000 fill or kill at 2.5p and they have rejected that and said 2.7p for just 50000 come on, this is what's none as manipulation where a mm refuses to let anybody buy but also refuses to move up their price...for now
Upwars and onwards
Tax-loss harvesting strategy:
Selling shares at a loss before the end of the tax year allows holders to offset capital gains and reduce their overall taxable income. This strategy, known as tax-loss harvesting, helps minimize taxes by utilizing investment losses to counterbalance gains elsewhere in their portfolio.