The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Its priced to need to raise again in ~6-9 months down the road with $30m of debt and, likely, still no profitability in sight.
In the meantime there's still a fair bit of time to pump it higher before the next lot of results deflate it again.
Your post appears to pull the rug out from under the short sellers ? STX has been priced to fail over the past few weeks. Interesting to see how the recovery goes
JAllis, while you make an interesting point, your information is well out of date. At the same time (30 April) that the company arranged the $10m accounts receivable facility, it also rearranged all the sales covenants with SWK, so that they are not, and likely will not be, breached. This, coupled with the cost cutting in SG&A, looks like the work of the new CFO, who seems to have a strong hold over the cash position and ensuring that STX does not need a fund raise. Of course, this is dependent on it achieving its sales targets, but these are now more realistic too.
I see STX is getting the pump again across certain quarters. All are pointing to sales, fcf etc etc but none seem to be highlighting the elephant in the room of the demanding SWK targets which is missed mean a capital raise at 2x the amount missed
Yes nice increase here today for STX and GILD also worth a look...great news today .....this is having a strong afternoon
The point I'm making is a company like STX would not want to be raising debt until profitability was in sight but the recent poor performance and subsequent share price erosion has given them little choice... and not just once but a second lot of debt on top.
This now makes the risk of failure sky high.
As recently as July 2023 STX forecast becoming cash flow positive without a penny of debt to their name in 2024.
The likes of myself and others on here who understand just how poor recent results are know this is unlikely but now, at best (at least hpyothetically), they're looking at reaching a cash flow positive position in late 2025 with $30m of debt on the books.
Anything but absolutely perfect execution from here and they'll be needing to raise and since they've taken on so much debt in the past eight months that option will be off the table so a highly dilutive raise will be what comes.
This share is not cheap, its highly risky and speculative from here.
This share is so cheap, they ve got enough cash in hand, growing in the us,
And consider people are eating all non organic food and getting ill in the long term, I reckon share will hit 4 p in a few weeks, that is my sense which I believe in
If I was Greg i'd certainly be buying shares even if the outlook is far less sunny than I was letting on - director purchases right now would support the share price / likely drive it higher increasing the chances of pulling off a placing when they next need it and therefore increasing the chances of him retaining this supremely well paid and cushy £600k+ a year salary!
Look back at last few days buys - there were lots of block buying , also had 1m buy, 500k x 2 etc
It won't be a director, stop being silly. Where is "the decent buys"? What director is going to embarras themselves buying stock on a Monday morning?
*hope it’s the directors
Correction to my post
Decent sized buys this morning, it’s the directors who are buying
Completely agree. All is not lost here just yet, if improvement were to be seen from this point forward even if further funding was needed in early-mid 2025 it would be well supported at a valuation higher than the current one but the question is, how likely is that improvement to come? And it really needs to be a significant improvement with prescriptions back on a 30%+ QoQ growth trajectory.
They've bought themselves a few quarters more time but they are very much in the last chance saloon territory now otherwise a change in management is inevitable and heavy dilution to get back on track.
I'd rather watch from the sidelines and enter at a higher level if that significant progress is seen as I think it's unlikely under this current management.
Well, at least it was not an after hours RNS. Still (another) shabby effort though. Another failure to meet a self-imposed deadline, albeit one of the more minor failures, comparatively.
Still do not trust them to deliver shareholder value.
Significant CEO and CFO purchases on Monday would at least start the process of rebuilding some fragment of trust that they have destroyed over the years. Anything less is cheap talk, IMO.
Ignore that… just got excited - eyes saw something else…. Must be the drugs I’m on…. didn’t read it… although it’s probably as meaningful to STX as their own RNS.
There’s this.. although not much tbf
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/SOHO/director-declaration/16465178
STX will probably release the RNS at 16:30 when the market closes!!! ::(
Indeed. There is absolutely no excuse for this. None whatsoever.
At the bare minimum, they should have released an RNS yesterday to update the market that there was going to be a delay to the before 10th May date, which they initially announced.
Sure, it might have negatively impacted the SP, but it is not like the BOD have done anything to protect, let alone maximise, shareholder value to date, so it would hardly have been out of the ordinary.
Amateur management at best. A stench that rises up to the heavens at worst.
The delay in the annual accounts being due to exchange rate translation seemed a little strange to me. I would have thought the 'going concern' wording will be the area causing delays.
In terms of the delay surely leave it a little vague e.g. accounts are expected to be finalised by the middle of May. By having a specific date means you must hit that date.
I am surprised at how few comments we have seen here, since the latest failure to meet expectations that the company imposed on themselves and stipulated to the market.
Neither cheerleader apologists or disappointed bulls.
Truly dreadful outfit.
Looks like it!
Surely not another broken promise/market misleading statement? Lol.
How late do they print RNS's, HarChris? Is it 6pm? Need to head out shortly, but will have a look later.
Quite the teasers, are they not? Building the tension like a skilled maestro....
We should get a bit more detail and reasoning in the audited full year results...
'The Company now expects to issue its fully audited results for FY23 before 10 May 2024'
In the next hour?